Analysis
Saint Louis vs Missouri Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov 6, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model splits Saint Louis vs Missouri 50/50 at very low confidence, while the market makes Missouri a slight favorite.
- Missouri is -1.5 to -2 (opened -2.5) and -125 to -134 on the moneyline; the total is 161.5.
- Missouri had 23 assists and 4 turnovers in a 111-50 opener; Saint Louis scored 50 paint points in a 92-67 win.
- First meeting since 2001; Missouri leads the all-time series 21-19.
Saint Louis (1-0) and Missouri (1-0) renew their in-state rivalry Friday at 7 PM ET at Enterprise Center in downtown St. Louis (ESPNU), their first meeting since 2001. Missouri is a 1.5- to 2-point favorite with the total at 161.5, after opening at -2.5. Both teams shot 60% or better in blowout openers, and the market prices this close to a coin flip. Our call: no edge.
How these teams got here
Saint Louis is coming off a 29-6 season that included the Atlantic 10 regular-season title at 15-3. The Billikens beat Georgia 102-77 in the NCAA Tournament before Michigan ended their run, 95-72. Josh Schertz lost his top scorer, Robbie Avila (12.9 points, 4.1 assists), and Dion Brown (11.1), but four of last season's top six scorers are back: Trey Green (11.1), Amari McCottry (10.3), Kellen Thames (9.9) and Quentin Jones (9.2).
The opener was clean. Saint Louis beat Lehigh 92-67, shooting 33-of-55 (60%), scoring 50 points in the paint and holding the Mountain Hawks to 5-of-27 from three.
Missouri went 20-13 last season and finished on a four-game skid, the last an 80-66 NCAA Tournament loss to Miami. Dennis Gates rebuilt around Mark Mitchell Jr., the only one of last season's top six scorers still on the roster (18.3 points per game). The new group looked sharp in a 111-50 rout of Cleveland State: 61% from the field, 14-of-31 from three and 23 assists against 4 turnovers.
Missouri's new guards vs Saint Louis's interior
The headline debut belonged to freshman Jason Crowe Jr., who scored 23 on 9-of-16 with four threes. Kennard Davis Jr. added 19 off the bench on 7-of-9, Mitchell had 11 points and 10 assists, and freshman Toni Bryant posted 15 points and 5 blocks. As a team, Missouri blocked 10 shots and held Cleveland State to 33% shooting.
Saint Louis wins a different way. Thames went 6-of-6 for 15 points, Jones scored 15, and Alon Michaeli hit 5-of-6 for 11. The Billikens turned Lehigh's 12 turnovers into 22 points and ran for 17 fast-break points.
That's the swing in this game: Saint Louis feeds on mistakes, and Missouri gave the ball away just four times in its opener. If the Tigers protect it again, the Billikens' transition game dries up. If Saint Louis can speed them up, its edge inside (50 paint points to Missouri's 46 in the openers) takes over.
Rotation notes
College basketball has no official injury report, so there are no statuses to list. Missouri forward Jaylen Carey and guards Annor Boateng and Luke Northweather did not appear in the opener's box score, and Saint Louis guard Isaac Holmes didn't either. No reason was given for any of them, so treat their roles as unknown rather than ruled out.
How the line has moved
Missouri opened at -2.5 and -142 on the moneyline. It sits at -1.5 to -2 now, with the moneyline at -125 to -134 and Saint Louis at +105 to +110. The total hasn't budged from 161.5. A point of movement toward the Billikens is small, but it confirms the market sees two evenly matched teams.
Prediction: No edge
No edge. The reasons:
- The model has nothing. It splits the game 50/50 at very low confidence. The market has Missouri at about 54% with the vig removed, and ESPN's matchup predictor goes further at 61.6%. Neither side clears the bar.
- One-game samples. Lehigh and Cleveland State were overmatched, so the 60% shooting from both teams says more about the opponents than about Friday.
- Continuity vs talent. Saint Louis returns four of last season's top six scorers. Missouri has the shinier debut numbers but only one returning top-six scorer.
- Neutral floor. The game is in Saint Louis's city but not on its home court at Chaifetz Arena.
Swing factor: turnovers. Missouri's 4 against Saint Louis's 22 points off turnovers is the matchup that decides it.
The total: 161.5 is high, but these teams put up 92 and 111 in their openers. We don't have a number to beat it either way.
