Analysis
Fordham vs Stonehill Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov 5, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model rates Stonehill the likelier winner, while licensed books make Fordham a 17.5-point favorite (-2800 to -3500), so we pass on a side.
- Fordham lost its opener 95-65 at Kansas, shooting 32% and getting outscored 46-12 in the paint.
- Stonehill beat Curry 84-56 with a 57-26 rebounding edge, but its top six scorers from 2025-26 are all gone.
- The total is 143.5; last season Fordham scored 69.8 points a game and Stonehill 66.4.
Stonehill (1-0) visits Fordham (0-1) on Thursday, Nov. 5 at 7:30 PM ET at Rose Hill Gym in the Bronx, streaming on ESPN+. The licensed books make the Rams 17.5-point favorites with a total of 143.5 and a moneyline of -2800 to -3500. The tension: Fordham is coming off a 30-point beating at Kansas, while Stonehill rebuilt almost its entire rotation and opened with a rout. Our call: no edge.
Two openers, two very different tests
Fordham's season started in Lawrence on Monday night, and it went sideways fast. Kansas won 95-65, led for 94% of the game and pounded the Rams 46-12 in the paint. Fordham shot 22 of 69 (32%) and lost the glass 50-33.
There were bright spots. Akira Jacobs scored 20 points on 6-of-8 shooting, 5 of 6 from three, and Lateef Patrick Jr. added 13 off the bench. Fordham's defense also forced 17 turnovers and logged 12 steals, which is real ball pressure against a roster like that. The problem was the half-court offense: point guard Amir Lindsey handed out 7 assists but went 1 for 12.
Stonehill's opener was the opposite kind of night. The Skyhawks beat Curry 84-56 at home on Monday, never trailed, and won the boards 57-26. They got to the line 32 times and made 24. The warning sign was the jumper: 8 of 30 from three (27%).
Both teams last played Monday, so both come in on three days' rest. For context from last season, Fordham went 17-15 (11-7 at home) and scored 69.8 points a game while allowing 65.5. Stonehill went 12-21 (8-10 in the NEC, 4-15 on the road), scoring 66.4 and allowing 68.6.
Continuity against a blank slate
This is the matchup's real story. Mike Magpayo's Fordham lost its top two scorers, Dejour Reaves (17.9 points per game) and Christian Henry (10.7 points, 5.1 assists), but kept a frontcourt core:
- Rikus Schulte, 10.7 points and 9.1 rebounds last season
- Abass Bodija, 7.3 points and 5.0 rebounds
- Jacobs, 7.2 points a year ago and already the go-to shooter
- Roor Akhuar, 6.1 points
Chris Kraus' Stonehill is close to a brand-new team. Its top six scorers from 2025-26 are gone, including Davante Hackett (13.6), Hermann Koffi (12.8) and Chas Stinson (11.3). In the opener the scoring came from the bench: Jack Medalie had 18 points and 8 rebounds on 7-of-10 shooting, and Anquan Boldin Jr. added 15. Starter Felipe Patino also scored 15, hitting 3 of 7 from deep. Returning guard Trenton Ruth ran the offense with 6 assists.
The unit battle to watch is Stonehill's rebounding against a Fordham interior that Kansas just bullied. Schulte managed only 2 points on 1-of-7 shooting in Lawrence, though he did grab 6 boards. If he and Bodija hold their own on defensive rebounds, Fordham's turnover pressure should create the separation a 17.5-point number needs. If Stonehill wins the boards by anything like Monday's margin, the cover gets hard.
Lineup notes
Neither ESPN nor Nucleus lists an injury for either team, and college basketball has no official injury report, so there are no availability questions going in. Fordham started Bodija, Jacobs, Schulte, Lindsey and freshman Hassan Koureissi (10 points) at Kansas. Stonehill started Pearse McGuinn, Ewan Steele, Ruth, Eli Greenberg and Patino, then got 33 points from Medalie and Boldin off the bench. Expect Kraus to keep tinkering with a roster this new, and expect both rotations to look different by December.
Prediction: no edge
No edge. The reasons:
- The price is extreme. A moneyline of -2800 to -3500 implies about 97% for Fordham, and that leaves nothing to buy on the favorite.
- The model and the market point opposite ways. Our model rates Stonehill the likelier winner (85%, medium), while every licensed book has Fordham laying 17.5 and ESPN's matchup predictor gives the Rams 93.1%. When the two disagree that sharply, we don't put a side in the pick box.
- The spread is big for a team that just shot 32%. Fordham's half-court offense hasn't shown it can win by 18-plus against a team that rebounds like Stonehill did Monday.
- Stonehill's numbers came against Curry. The 57-26 rebounding edge and the 28-point win were against a much weaker opponent than Kansas was for Fordham, so neither opener translates cleanly.
The swing factor is Stonehill's three-point shooting. At 27% it can't stay in a road game. If it lands closer to Patino's 3-of-7, 17.5 points is a lot of cushion.
The total: 143.5 sits well above what either team scored per game last season (69.8 and 66.4). Two rebuilt rotations and a 32% shooting night from the home side don't argue for an over, but there isn't enough 2026-27 data to bet the under either. We're passing on the total too.
