Analysis
North Texas vs McNeese Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov. 5, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model splits North Texas vs McNeese 50/50, while the books make McNeese a 2.5- to 3.5-point road favorite (about 58% after removing the vig).
- McNeese went 28-6 last season, 9-5 on the road, and opened with a 99-78 win over UAB behind Larry Johnson's 31 points.
- The total has dropped from 143.5 to 140–141, and the spread has moved from McNeese -1.5 to -2.5 to -3.5.
McNeese (1-0) visits North Texas (1-0) at 5:00 PM ET Thursday at The Super Pit in Denton (ESPN+). McNeese is a 2.5- to 3.5-point road favorite, and the total sits at 140 to 141. The tension: the market trusts last season's 28-6 Cowboys, while ESPN's matchup predictor makes the home team a 64.6% favorite. Our model calls it a 50/50 coin flip, so our call is no edge.
How these teams got here
McNeese comes in with real pedigree. The Cowboys went 28-6 in 2025-26, 21-3 in Southland play and 9-5 on the road, scoring 79.7 points per game and allowing 66.8. Their season ended with a 78-68 loss to Vanderbilt on March 19. The new season opened the same way the old one ran: a 99-78 win over UAB in which McNeese shot 55% from the floor and 12-of-27 from three.
North Texas went 19-14 last season, scoring 70.9 points per game on 42.5% shooting and 29.9% from deep while allowing 67.4. The Mean Green's season ended in a 90-84 triple-overtime loss to Tulsa on March 13. Their opener was a 122-50 rout of Southwestern Christian, which tells you more about their depth than about how they'll handle a team like McNeese.
This is also the return leg of a home-and-home. McNeese won the first one 68-61 in Lake Charles on Nov. 18, 2024.
McNeese's scorers vs. the North Texas bench
The headline name is Larry Johnson. He put up 31 points on 13-of-21 shooting against UAB, with 5 rebounds and 4 assists. Elijah Moore added 15, all on threes (5-of-9), and Jaylon Dean-Vines gave McNeese 17 off the bench on 6-of-8 shooting. Dellquan Warren ran the offense with 9 assists. As a team, McNeese had 20 assists against 8 turnovers, plus 10 steals and 8 blocks.
North Texas answered with numbers. Aeneas Alexander scored 22 off the bench in 20 minutes (6-of-11, 8-of-9 at the line, 9 rebounds). Cash Chavis had 17, Amar Amkou 16 and 9 rebounds, and Je'Shawn Stevenson 15 with 5 assists. The Mean Green won the glass 61-27, with 22 offensive rebounds, and turned 21 forced turnovers into 32 points.
The question is whether that depth and size travel against a real opponent. McNeese gave up only 8 offensive rebounds to UAB, but it also sent UAB to the line 30 times, and the Blazers made 26. If North Texas can live at the line and on the offensive glass, the home side has a path.
Lineup notes
College basketball has no official injury report, and neither school had announced an absence as of Thursday morning. Every McNeese and North Texas player named above logged minutes in the opener. Check the starting lineups before tip.
How the line has moved
McNeese opened at -1.5 and now sits at -2.5 to -3.5 across licensed books. The moneyline has gone from -130 at the open to -148 to -155, with North Texas at +124 to +130. The total opened at 143.5 and has dropped to 140 to 141. The market has moved toward McNeese and toward a slower, lower-scoring game.
Prediction: no edge
No edge. Here's why:
- The model has nothing to add. It splits the game 50/50 at very low confidence. The licensed moneyline makes McNeese roughly a 58% favorite once the vig is removed.
- The signals disagree. ESPN's predictor has North Texas at 64.6%, while the books have moved toward McNeese, from -1.5 to as high as -3.5.
- The openers don't tell you much. North Texas scored 122 against a much weaker opponent. McNeese beat a UAB team that shot 26-of-30 at the line.
- McNeese's track record is real: 28-6, 9-5 on the road last season. North Texas has a home floor, but there's no home/road split we could confirm.
Swing factor: foul trouble. McNeese committed 21 fouls in its opener. If that repeats, North Texas's free-throw volume (36 attempts against Southwestern Christian) can close a 3-point gap fast.
On the total: it has dropped three points from the open, to 140 to 141, and both teams allowed about 67 points per game last season. We don't have a number that beats the market, so we're not playing the total either.
