Analysis
Indiana vs Bellarmine Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov 5, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: Indiana should win comfortably, but our model has no read on whether the Hoosiers cover a 29.5- to 30-point spread.
- Bellarmine committed 23 turnovers in a 93-47 loss at Vanderbilt; Indiana forced 22 in its 91-57 win over Eastern Illinois.
- The line opened Indiana -26.5 and sits at -29.5 to -30; the total is unchanged at 153.5.
Indiana (1-0) hosts Bellarmine (0-1) on Thursday, Nov. 5 at 6:00 PM ET at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, streaming on Peacock. The Hoosiers are 29.5- to 30-point favorites, and the total sits at 153.5. Indiana opened with a 91-57 rout of Eastern Illinois; Bellarmine lost 93-47 at Vanderbilt. Nobody doubts the winner. The question is whether 30 points is too many. Our call: no edge.
How these teams got here
Indiana opened Darian DeVries' second season by beating Eastern Illinois 91-57 on Monday. The Hoosiers led for 98% of the game, built a lead as big as 38 and forced 22 turnovers, turning them into 29 points. They shot 50% from the field, made 9 of 24 threes and went to the line 32 times.
Bellarmine's opener went the other way. The Knights lost 93-47 at Vanderbilt, shooting 37% from the field and 5 of 21 from deep. They committed 23 turnovers, which Vanderbilt turned into 37 points, and were outrebounded 38-20.
The longer view says the same thing. Per the AP preview, Indiana went 18-14 last season and 14-4 at home, while Bellarmine went 13-19 and 2-13 on the road, scoring 80 points a game and allowing 81.7. Both teams last played Monday night, so neither has a rest edge.
Indiana's guards vs. Bellarmine's ball security
The margin comes down to Indiana's backcourt pressure against a Bellarmine team that just gave the ball away 23 times. Markus Burton, the Notre Dame transfer, was nearly perfect in his Indiana debut: 19 points on 7-of-8 shooting, 3 of 3 from three, five assists and two steals. Bryce Lindsay added 14 with three 3-pointers, and freshman Trevor Manhertz scored 11 off the bench. As a team, Indiana had 13 steals.
Bellarmine is rebuilding its scoring. Its top two scorers from last season, Jack Karasinski (21.7 points) and Brian Waddell (15.0), aren't on this year's roster. The top returners are Kenyon Goodin (11.6 points last season) and Tyler Doyle (10.0 points, 3.8 assists). At Vanderbilt, Goodin scored 2 on 1-of-6 shooting and Doyle had 6 with three turnovers. Freshman Demarcus Surratt led the Knights with 9 on 4-of-4 shooting.
Indiana's size showed up on the glass too. Samet Yigitoglu had seven rebounds, five of them offensive, in 18 minutes, and Aiden Sherrell added six. The Hoosiers grabbed 13 offensive rebounds on Monday; Bellarmine had 20 rebounds in total at Vanderbilt.
The rotation question
Neither school has published an injury status for this game. The detail that matters for a 30-point spread is how Indiana used its bench: 13 Hoosiers played in the opener, and nobody logged more than 25 minutes. With a big lead, DeVries went deep into his rotation early, and a garbage-time stretch like that can decide a cover either way.
Bellarmine, under coach Doug Davenport, used 12 players at Vanderbilt, and nobody topped 26 minutes.
How the line has moved
Indiana opened at -26.5 and is now -29.5 to -30 across licensed books, a move of three to three and a half points toward the Hoosiers. The total hasn't moved off its 153.5 opener. The Indiana moneyline is priced past -9,900, so the spread is the only side market worth discussing.
Prediction: no edge
Our model has this game as a coin flip at very low confidence, so it has no usable read on a matchup this lopsided. ESPN's matchup predictor gives Indiana a 98.4% chance to win. Indiana should win, but the bet is on the number, and we don't have a strong opinion on it:
- Indiana won its opener by 34 and Bellarmine lost by 46, both wider than this spread.
- Bellarmine's 23 turnovers at Vanderbilt play right into an Indiana defense that forced 22 on Monday.
- One game each is a tiny sample, and the line has already moved 3 to 3.5 points to price in both openers.
- Indiana's spread-out minutes make the final 10 minutes hard to project.
The swing factor is Bellarmine's ball security. If the Knights cut Monday's 23 turnovers to something closer to normal, 30 points is a lot to cover.
On the total, the two openers produced 148 and 140 points, both under 153.5, but Bellarmine's games last season averaged 161.7 combined points. We have no play there either.
