European Soccer Weekly Report – Target Over 2.5 Serie A Goals

European soccer bettors should consider targeting over 2.5 Serie A goals this weekend! The recent betting trends are suggesting this could be profitable. 

The full European soccer schedule returned last weekend and so I’m back this week with my Euro soccer report to provide you with all the latest updates. That includes the results, key statistics and the latest betting tendencies. 

This Friday will see leagues such as the Bundesliga and La Liga begin their matchweeks. The Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A and La Liga will be on display on Saturday before Sunday and Monday will see the gameweek finish up. 

There’s no Ligue 1 action again this weekend after the French top-flight returned from its winter break last week. That is because teams will be competing in the Coupe de France. As a result, this week’s Euro soccer picks will focus on the Bundesliga, Serie A and La Liga. Stay tuned for those later on in the week. Over 2.5 Serie A goals looks to be a good bet!

European Soccer Weekly Report – Results & Key Stats 

The latest results are in and I have given you a full rundown of what happened below, including the key statistics from the latest round of games. 

Our Premier League Matchweek 21 Picks have already been published so make sure that you head on over there for the recent updates from the English top-flight. The staggered winter break in England sees just five matches on the schedule this weekend. 

Ligue 1: 

Round 18

  • Marseille 1-1 Strasbourg 
  • Monaco 1-3 Reims 
  • Rennes 2-0 Nice
  • Lille 3-0 Lorient 
  • Brest 2-0 Montpellier 
  • Metz 0-1 Toulouse 
  • Nantes 1-2 Clermont 
  • Le Havre 3-1 Lyon
  • Lens 0-2 Paris Saint-Germain

Key Stats: 

  • 44.44% of Ligue 1 matches saw both teams score during Round 18
  • 44.44% of Ligue 1 matches saw over 2.5 goals during Round 18
  • PSG have lost just one Ligue 1 match so far this term and lead by eight points
  • Brest are undefeated across their last seven league matches, winning six in the process
  • Marseille are unbeaten across their last six in Ligue 1 
  • Metz have lost their last five consecutive league matches
  • Loreint are without a victory in nine Ligue 1 outings 
  • 44.44% of Ligue 1 matches resulted in home wins during Round 18
  • 11.11% of Ligue 1 matches resulted in draws during Round 18
  • 44.44% of Ligue 1 matches resulted in away wins during Round 18

Bundesliga: 

Round 17

  • Bayern Munich 3-0 Hoffenheim 
  • Augsburg 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen 
  • FC Köln 1-1 Heidenheim 
  • Mainz 1-1 Wolfsburg
  • Freiburg 0-0 Union Berlin
  • RB Leipzig 0-1 Frankfurt
  • Darmstadt 0-3 Borussia Dortmund 
  • Bochum 1-1 Werder Bremen 
  • Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-1 Stuttgart
Over 2.5 Serie A Goals

Key Stats: 

  • 44.44% of Bundesliga games during Round 17 saw both teams score 
  • 33.33% of Bundesliga games during Round 17 saw over 2.5 goals
  • 11.11% of games during Round 17 saw over 3.5 Bundesliga goals
  • Leverkusen are the only team that remain undefeated this term 
  • Darmstadt are without a win in ten in the league 
  • 22.22% of matches resulted in home wins during Round 17
  • 44.44% of matches resulted in draws during Round 17
  • 33.33% of matches resulted in away wins during Round 17

Serie A:

Round 20

  • Napoli 2-1 Salernitana
  • Genoa 0-0 Torino
  • Verona 2-1 Empoli
  • Monza 1-5 Inter
  • Lazio 1-0 Lecce
  • Cagliari 2-1 Bologna
  • Fiorentina 2-2 Udinese 
  • Milan 3-1 Roma 
  • Atalanta 5-0 Frosinone 
  • Juventus 3-0 Sassuolo

Key Stats: 

  • 60% of matches from Round 20 saw both teams score in Serie A 
  • 80% of matches from Round 20 saw over 2.5 Serie A goals 
  • Inter and Juventus have both lost just one league game this term
  • Juventus are unbeaten across their last 15 matches, winning 12 in the process 
  • Inter haven’t lost a league match over their past 14 outings
  • Salernitana and Udinese have just two league wins each this season (lowest in Serie A)
  • Frosinone have lost their last five successive Serie A games
  • 70% of Serie A matches ended in home wins during Round 20
  • 20% of Serie A matches ended in draws during Round 20
  • 10% of Serie A matches ended in away wins during Round 20

La Liga: 

Round 20

  • Sevilla 2-3 Alaves
  • Las Palmas 3-0 Villarreal 
  • Mallorca 1-1 Celta Vigo
  • Athletic Bilbao 2-1 Real Sociedad
  • Real Betis 1-0 Granada
  • Almeria 0-0 Girona
  • Cadiz 1-4 Valencia

Key Stats:

  • 57.14% of La Liga matches saw both teams score during Round 20
  • 57.14% of La Liga matches saw over 2.5 goals during Round 20
  • 28.57% of matches during Round 20 saw over 3.5 La Liga goals
  • Girona sit atop the standings on 49 points, but Real Madrid have a game in hand 
  • Real Madrid haven’t lost any of their last 13 La Liga outings
  • Girona are unbeaten across their last 12 in the league, winning nine in the process
  • Almeria are the only team left in La Liga yet to record a win
  • Cadiz have failed to win any of their last 16 successive league outings
  • 42.86% of La Liga games ended in home wins during Round 20
  • 28.57% of La Liga games ended in draws during Round 20
  • 28.57% of La Liga games ended in away wins during Round 20

European Soccer Weekly Report – Why Target Over 2.5 Serie A Goals? 

I took a look at overall goal betting trends across the top Euro soccer leagues last week in order to analyze the tendencies at the midway point of the season. Despite Serie A Unders being prevalent at the beginning of the campaign, the recent weeks are suggesting that more and more goals are being scored in the Italian top-flight. 

For example, over 2.5 Serie A goals have been the most common in Round 13 (60%), Round 14 (70%), Round 16 (50%), Round 19 (60%) and, most recently, Round 20 (80%). One reason for this is that Serie A has not been on winter break this season. 

Games have piled up in Italy over the winter period, including both league and Coppa Italia matches. This means that players are more fatigued and more likely to be susceptible to making mistakes. In turn, that results in more goals. I believed that Serie A Overs were a good trend to ride earlier on in the season as well. 

Euro Soccer Betting Trends – The impact of lines

How the bookmaker sets their line for totals is incredibly significant in the way in which soccer bettors should go about making their picks. For example, targeting overs in the Bundesliga seems like a good idea, considering that it is a very high-scoring league. That worked well at the start of the campaign. 

Nevertheless, the oddsmakers know this as well. Therefore, they will increase their totals lines from the standard 2.5 to 3, 3.5 or even 4. That’s exactly the reason why I have suggested that bettors should look to Bundesliga Unders more recently. Just 33.33% of Bundesliga games during Round 17 saw over 2.5 goals, whilst that percentage dropped to 11.11% for over 3.5 goals. 

In terms of Serie A, we need to take a look at the lines before we decide to make our picks. Although recent trends are indicating that backing over 2.5 Serie A goals could land, we still need to assess the lines that the bookies are setting for each fixture first, coupled with the individual goals stats for each team. 

Euro Soccer Betting Trends – Serie A Totals 

Continuing with the Serie A theme, let’s investigate the lines that the bookmakers have set this weekend for the next round of fixtures. I will also breakdown the most important goal statistics, further scrutinizing this by looking at home and away records. 

We have a reduced Italian top-flight schedule this week with just six games set to take place. There are two matchups from Serie A this week with the line set as low as O/U 2, whilst the other four have the line set at O/U 2.5. Here are the matches and their odds (subject to change): 

  • Salernitana vs Genoa: Total O2 (-123), U2 (+103)
  • Lecce vs Juventus: Total O2 (-127), U2 (+107)
  • Empoli vs Monza: Total O2.5 (+111), U2.5 (-131)
  • Frosinone vs Cagliari: Total O2.5 (-103), U2.5 (-117)
  • Roma vs Verona: Total O2.5 (+124), U2.5 (-144)
  • Udinese vs Milan: Total O2.5 (-120), U2.5 (+100)

The reason the bookies have set Salernitana vs Genoa at O/U 2 is because Genoa have one of the lowest over 2.5 goals ratios in Serie A (35%). They also have a low ratio for their road games (40%). However, hosts Salernitana have one of the highest overall over 2.5 goals ratios in the division (65%) and also for their home matches (70%). 

Nevertheless, both Salernitana and Genoa are two of the lowest scoring teams in the division. Salernitana rank 19th and Genoa rank joint-15th in terms of goals scored. 

Teams such as Lecce and Juventus both have low percentages when it comes to over 2.5 goals (35% and 40% respectively). Lecce’s home matches have seen just 40% hit over 2.5 Serie A goals, whilst Juventus’ road games are at 50%. This explains why the O/U is set at 2. 

In terms of targeting over 2.5 goals this weekend, the Udinese vs Milan game could be a good match. Udinese have seen 60% of their home games have over 2.5 Serie A goals, whilst Milan’s away record has seen 80% for that metric. 

Equally, the same logic can be applied to Frosinone vs Caglirai. Frosinone have one of the highest over 2.5 goals ratios in Serie A (70%), which then increases to 80% for home matches. Cagliari also have high percentages overall (55%), whilst their away games see over 2.5 Serie A goals 50% of the time.