European Soccer Weekly Report – Bettors Should Consider Serie A Overs

Updated:

In line with keeping up to date with the latest betting trends, bettors should consider looking to Serie A Overs when it comes to wagering on European soccer this week. 

The festive period is upon us and the soccer schedule from Europe’s top five leagues is getting busy. However, Sports Hub will continue to provide you with all the latest updates, including the most recent betting tendencies. 

Serie A Overs have been extremely common over the past few weeks. It appears we have seen yet another shift in patterns. Therefore, I am updating you on everything you need to know before another jam-packed weekend of soccer. 

European Soccer Weekly Report – Results & Key Stats 

The Premier League has had midweek fixtures on the schedule. Despite the majority of matches already being played, check out our Premier League Matchweek 15 Predictions here. 

Here is a full list of last weekend’s European soccer results. Ligue 1 also has a couple of games during the week in order to catch up with the schedule. The statistics are indicating that Serie A Overs could be profitable. 

Ligue 1: 

  • Reims 2-1 Strasbourg
  • Lens 3-2 Lyon 
  • Nantes 1-0 Nice 
  • Le Havre 0-2 Paris Saint-Germain
  • Brest 3-0 Clermont
  • Monaco 2-0 Montpellier 
  • Toulouse 1-1 Lorient
  • Lille 2-0 Metz 
  • Marseille 2-0 Rennes
  • Marseille 3-0 Lyon

Key Stats: 

  • 33.33% of Ligue 1 matches saw both teams score during Week 14
  • 33.33% of Ligue 1 matches saw over 2.5 goals during Week 14
  • Nice were finally beaten last weekend and there are now no teams left unbeaten in the division
  • PSG have won their last seven consecutive league games
  • Lyon have just one win to their name in Ligue 1 this season
  • Toulouse have failed to find the victory across any of their last seven consecutive league matches
  • 77.78% of Ligue 1 matches resulted in home wins during Week 14
  • 11.11% of Ligue 1 matches resulted in draws during Week 14
  • 11.11% of Ligue 1 matches resulted in away wins during Week 14

Bundesliga: 

  • Darmstadt 0-1 FC Köln 
  • Bochum 3-1 Wolfsburg
  • Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-1 Hoffenheim 
  • RB Leipzig 2-1 Heidenheim 
  • Stuttgart 2-0 Werder Bremen 
  • Mainz 0-1 Freiburg 
  • Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 Borussia Dortmund
  • Augsburg 2-1 Frankfurt

Key Stats: 

  • 62.5% of Bundesliga games during Week 13 saw both teams score 
  • 50% of Bundesliga games during Week 13 saw over 2.5 goals
  • 12.5% of games during Week 13 saw over 3.5 Bundesliga goals
  • Leverkusen and Bayern are the only two teams that remain undefeated this term
  • Leverkusen dropped points for just the second time this season last time out
  • Bayern have recorded the victory in each of their last six Bundesliga outings
  • Union Berlin have failed to win any of their last ten consecutive league matches
  • Darmstadt are without a win in six 
  • 62.5% of matches resulted in home wins during Week 13
  • 12.5% of matches resulted in draws during Week 13
  • 25% of matches resulted in away wins during Week 13

Serie A:

  • Monza 1-2 Juventus 
  • Genoa 1-1 Empoli 
  • Lazio 1-0 Cagliari 
  • Milan 3-1 Frosinone 
  • Lecce 1-1 Bologna 
  • Udinese 3-3 Verona 
  • Fiorentina 3-0 Salernitana 
  • Sassuolo 1-2 Roma 
  • Napoli 0-3 Inter 
  • Torino 3-0 Atalanta 

Key Stats: 

  • 60% of matches from Week 14 saw both teams score in Serie A 
  • 70% of matches from Week 14 saw saw over 2.5 goals in Serie A
  • Inter and Juventus have both lost just one league game this term
  • Juventus are unbeaten across their last nine matches, winning seven in the process
  • Salernitana and Udinese have just one league win this season
  • Verona have just two points from their last seven Serie A outings
  • 40% of Serie A matches ended in home wins during Week 14
  • 30% of Serie A matches ended in draws during Week 14
  • 30% of Serie A matches ended in away wins during Week 14

La Liga: 

  • Las Palmas 2-0 Getafe 
  • Girona 2-1 Valencia 
  • Athletic Bilbao 4-0 Rayo Vallecano
  • Real Madrid 2-0 Granada
  • Osasuna 1-1 Real Sociedad 
  • Mallorca 0-0 Alaves
  • Almeria 0-0 Real Betis 
  • Sevilla 1-1 Villarreal 
  • Barcelona 1-0 Atletico Madrid 
  • Celta Vigo 1-1 Cadiz

Key Stats: 

  • 40% of La Liga matches saw both teams score during Week 14
  • 20% of La Liga matches saw over 2.5 goals during Week 14
  • 10% of matches during Week 14 saw over 3.5 La Liga goals
  • Real Madrid and Girona sit atop the standings, level on 38 points each
  • Real Madrid, Barcelona and Girona have all lost just one La Liga match this season
  • Girona are unbeaten across their last seven in the league, winning six in the process
  • Almeria are the only team left in La Liga yet to record a win
  • Celta Vigo haven’t won any of their past 11 league matches, whilst Granada have failed to win any of their last 12
  • 50% of La Liga games ended in home wins during Week 14
  • 50% of La Liga games ended in draws during Week 14
  • 0% of La Liga games ended in away wins during Week 14

European Soccer Weekly Report – Bettors Should Consider Serie A Overs

At the beginning of the season, I advised that bettors should look to Ligue 1 and Serie A if they want to bet on Unders. Largely, this has rung true, especially for Ligue 1. That trend appears to be continuing for the French top-flight. 

Nevertheless, the last few weeks have shown that Serie A has had an increase in goals. During Week 14, 70% of matches had over 2.5 goals. For Week 13, we saw over 2.5 goals land in 60% of games. 

The most common line that the bookmakers have been setting in terms of Serie A totals is O/U 2.5 goals. Just two games for the upcoming matches have a line set at O/U 3. Compare that to the Bundesliga, three matches have the O/U at 3, whilst two are set at O/U 3.5. 

Seeing as though we had such a high percentage of matches over the past two weeks in Serie A hit over 2.5 goals, now seems to be a good time to ride that trend. Of course, make sure you always analyze each matchup individually before making your picks. 

Euro Soccer Betting Trends – Serie A Overs Analysis

So, we have identified that Serie A Overs are the latest trend. But, what do we do with that information? Well, we need to dig a little deeper to find out which teams we should target when it comes to Overs. 

Let’s take a look at some key statistics below: 

  • Napoli have the highest over 2.5 goals percentage in the division (71%)
  • Frosinone and Roma have also seen the majority of their games hit the over (64%)
  • Sassuolo, Fiorentina, Atalanta, Salernitana, Cagliari and Inter have all seen over half of their matches have over 2.5 goals (57%)
  • Frosinone have the highest percentage for over 2.5 goals when playing at home (86%)
  • 71% of home matches for Roma, Fiorentina and Napoli have all resulted in over 2.5 goals 
  • Both Milan and Napoli have seen 71% of their away games have over 2.5 goals 
  • Sassuolo (67%) and Atalanta (63%) also have high percentages for overs when playing on the road

It seems clear that teams such as Napoli, Sassuolo, Roma and Atalanta are the best teams to target when considering Serie A Overs. Napoli have even seen 50% of their matches this season have over 3.5 goals as well. 

Euro Soccer Betting Trends – Bundesliga Unders Update

As I stated last week, it may have been a good idea for bettors to start to look towards Bundesliga Unders. For the majority of the campaign, Overs have been your best bet when it comes to betting on German totals. 

Nevertheless, betting trends change over the course of the season. Bookmakers also regularly change their lines to counter those tendencies. With just 12.5% of Bundesliga matches seeing over 3.5 goals last week, it seems as though the Unders would have been profitable. 

Three games in the German top-flight last weekend had the O/U at 2.5 goals. Those matches were: 

  • Darmstadt vs Köln (0-1)
  • Mainz vs Freiburg (0-1)
  • Augsburg vs Frankfurt (2-1)

As you can see, the Under would have landed in two out of those three matches (66.67%). 

The other matches had the O/U set at 3 or 3.5 goals. Check out the outcome of those games here: 

  • Bochum vs Wolfsburg (3-1) (O/U 3)
  • Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen (2-0) (O/U 3)
  • Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hoffenheim (2-1) (O/U 3.5)
  • RB Leipzig vs Heidenheim (2-1) (O/U 3.5)
  • Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund (1-1) (O/U 3.5)

As seen above, the Under proceeded to land in all but one of the remaining five Bundesliga matches. That sets the total O/U record for last weekend at 2-6, meaning the Under was far more common than the Over. If you were targeting Bundesliga Unders last weekend, you would have turned in some tidy profits.