European Soccer Weekly Report – Should You Target Bundesliga Unders?

Updated:

This week’s European soccer report will discuss whether soccer bettors should now look to Bundesliga Unders. Could it be a profitable shift based on the latest betting trends?

It’s been a couple of weeks since my last European soccer report due to the November international break. However, the top leagues returned last weekend so I’m back to provide you with all the latest betting trends, including Bundesliga Unders, ahead of another set of fixtures. 

Those that have regularly kept up to date with my weekly reports will know that I have advised you to target Bundesliga Overs this season. However, trends change and so do the markets and prices set by the bookmakers. Therefore, I will be analyzing whether bettors should now shift towards Bundesliga Unders. 

European Soccer Weekly Report – Results & Key Stats 

As always, I will begin my Euro soccer report by taking a look at all the results from Ligue 1, the Bundesliga, Serie A and La Liga. We always need to be keeping up to date with the latest results before making our picks. 

Check out the latest set of results below, including a slightly changing trend of Bundesliga Unders: 

Ligue 1: 

  • Paris Saint-Germain 5-2 Monaco 
  • Clermont 0-3 Lens 
  • Strasbourg 1-1 Marseille 
  • Nice 1-0 Toulouse 
  • Montpellier 1-3 Brest 
  • Nantes 0-0 Le Havre 
  • Lorient 2-3 Metz 
  • Rennes 3-1 Reims 
  • Lyon 0-2 Lille

Key Stats: 

  • 55.56% of Ligue 1 matches saw both teams score during Week 13
  • 55.56% of Ligue 1 matches saw over 2.5 goals during Week 13
  • Nice are still the only team left in Ligue 1 to remain unbeaten and have won five of their last six 
  • PSG have won their last six consecutive league games
  • Lyon have just one win to their name in Ligue 1 this term 
  • Toulouse have failed to find the victory across any of their last six consecutive league matches
  • 33.33% of Ligue 1 matches resulted in home wins during Week 13
  • 22.22% of Ligue 1 matches resulted in draws during Week 13
  • 44.44% of Ligue 1 matches resulted in away wins during Week 13

Bundesliga: 

  • FC Köln 0-1 Bayern Munich 
  • Werder Bremen 0-3 Bayer Leverkusen 
  • Wolfsburg 2-1 RB Leipzig 
  • Freiburg 1-1 Darmstadt 
  • Union Berlin 1-1 Augsburg 
  • Borussia Dortmund 4-2 Borussia Mönchengladbach 
  • Frankfurt 1-2 Stuttgart 
  • Heidenheim 0-0 Bochum 
  • Hoffenheim 1-1 Mainz

Key Stats: 

  • 66.67% of Bundesliga games during Week 12 saw both teams score 
  • 44.44% of Bundesliga games during Week 12 saw over 2.5 goals
  • 11.11% of games during Week 12 saw over 3.5 Bundesliga goals
  • Leverkusen and Bayern are the only two teams that remain undefeated this term
  • Leverkusen have won their last eight consecutive league games
  • Bayern have recorded the victory in each of their last six Bundesliga outings
  • Union Berlin have failed to win any of their last ten consecutive league matches
  • Darmstadt are without a win in five 
  • 22.22% of matches resulted in home wins during Week 12
  • 44.44% of matches resulted in draws during Week 12
  • 33.33% of matches resulted in away wins during Week 12

Serie A:

  • Salernitana 2-1 Lazio 
  • Atalanta 1-2 Napoli 
  • Milan 1-0 Fiorentina 
  • Cagliari 1-1 Monza 
  • Frosinone 2-1 Genoa 
  • Empoli 3-4 Sassuolo 
  • Roma 3-1 Udinese 
  • Juventus 1-1 Inter 
  • Verona 2-2 Lecce 
  • Bologna 2-0 Torino

Key Stats: 

  • 80% of matches from Week 13 saw both teams score in Serie A 
  • 60% of matches from Week 13 saw saw over 2.5 goals in Serie A
  • Inter and Juventus have all lost just one game this term
  • Juventus are unbeaten across their last eight matches, winning six in the process
  • Salernitana and Udinese have just one league win this season
  • Verona have just one point from their last six Serie A outings
  • 50% of Serie A matches ended in home wins during Week 13
  • 30% of Serie A matches ended in draws during Week 13
  • 20% of Serie A matches ended in away wins during Week 13

La Liga: 

  • Alaves 3-1 Granada 
  • Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Barcelona 
  • Valencia 0-0 Celta Vigo 
  • Getafe 2-1 Almeria 
  • Atletico Madrid 1-0 Mallorca 
  • Villarreal 3-1 Osasuna 
  • Real Sociedad 2-1 Sevilla 
  • Cadiz 0-3 Real Madrid 
  • Real Betis 1-0 Las Palmas 
  • Girona 1-1 Athletic Bilbao 

Key Stats: 

  • 60% of La Liga matches saw both teams score during Week 14
  • 50% of La Liga matches saw over 2.5 goals during Week 14
  • 20% of matches during Week 14 saw over 3.5 La Liga goals
  • Real Madrid have returned to the top of the table with their win and Girona’s draw
  • Girona are unbeaten across their last six, winning five in the process
  • Almeria are the only team left in La Liga yet to record a win; they have also lost their last six in a row
  • Celta Vigo haven’t won any of their past ten league matches, whilst Granada have failed to win any of their last 11
  • 60% of La Liga games ended in home wins during Week 14
  • 30% of La Liga games ended in draws during Week 14
  • 10% of La Liga games ended in away wins during Week 14

European Soccer Weekly Report – Should You Target Bundesliga Unders?

Over the course of the 2023/24 season so far, it has been a good idea to look to the Bundesliga when it comes to Overs, in regards to the totals market. However, have we seen a change in pattern over recent weeks? Now could be a good time to consider Bundesliga Unders. 

Well, just 44.44% of Bundesliga matches during Week 12 saw over 2.5 goals. That is considerably lower compared to the typical week in the German top-flight. In terms of over 3.5 goals, just 11.11% of games came in for this market. 

The oddsmakers spotted the high goal-scoring trends and adjusted their lines just a few games into the season. That saw the most common line move from O/U 2.5 goals to O/U 3 and 3.5 goals. 

Just three matches for the upcoming set of fixtures have seen the line set at over 2.5 goals. Here are the list of games and the odds (subject to change):

  • Darmstadt vs Köln: Total O2.5 (-132), U2.5 (+112)
  • Mainz vs Freiburg: Total O2.5 (-111), U2.5 (-109)
  • Augsburg vs Frankfurt: Total O2.5 (-128), U2.5 (+108)

The reason that these teams have a lower line set is because they are hitting the Under more frequently. Frankfurt and Köln have the lowest over 2.5 goal ratio in the league (42% and 50%), whilst Freiburg have one of the lowest home over 2.5 goal ratios in the division (50%). Even with a lower line, Frankfurt and Köln could be good teams to choose when it comes to Bundesliga Unders. 

Euro Soccer Betting Trends – Why move to Bundesliga Unders?

With the line set higher for the rest of the German top-flight’s games, it could be a good idea to target Bundesliga Unders. Unders are a good wager to target regardless since you can usually get a better value price. The public loves to back Overs and so the bookmakers have to set higher prices. 

We have two matches in the Bundesliga this week with an O/U set at 3 goals, whilst four have the line at O/U 3.5 goals. Here are the games and the odds (subject to change): 

  • Bochum vs Wolfsburg: Total O3 (+109), U3 (-129)
  • Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen: Total O3 (-127), U3 (+107)
  • Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin: Total O3.5 (-116), U3.5 (-114)
  • Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hoffenheim: Total O3.5 (-110), U3.5 (-110)
  • RB Leipzig vs Heidenheim: Total O3.5 (-114), U3.5 (-116)
  • Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund: Total O3.5 (-108), U3.5 (-112)

With just 11.11% of last weekend’s games hitting over 3.5 goals, we could certainly find some good value by targeting Bundesliga Unders. Teams such as Union Berlin, Wolfsburg, Bochum, RB Leipzig, Heidenheim and Leverkusen have all seen over 3.5 goals in 50% or lower of their total matches this term. 

Euro Soccer Betting Trends – Handicap betting update

In my last Euro soccer report, I explained the advantages of utilizing handicap betting. Be sure to take a look at my handicap betting article for the full information. This week, I will be providing you with an update on handicap betting trends across the top European soccer leagues. 

  • A total of three teams in La Liga won by a two goal margin or more (Real Madrid, Villarreal and Alaves)
  • In Italy, a -1 handicap only came in for Roma and Bologna
  • Two sides from the Bundesliga secured the victory by a two-goal margin (Dortmund and Leverkusen)
  • Ligue 1 saw a total of five teams win by at least two goals (PSG, Lille, Lens, Rennes and Brest)

As you can see, a -1 handicap did not land very often across Europe’s top leagues. However, it can be an extremely useful market to utilize and provides bettors with greater odds. The matchups determine the likelihood of when I will look to use the handicap in soccer betting and it’s a tactic that should be used sparingly. 

For example, I placed just one handicap bet last weekend out of all of my soccer bets. The selection came in, too, to net me a profit of $105. 

  • Paris Saint-Germain 5-2 Monaco (Bet: PSG -1 ½, +105)

Make sure that you read my handicap betting article to find out more information of when the best time is to place soccer handicap bets.