European Soccer Weekly Report – Handicap Betting

Updated:

How often do you use handicap betting when it comes to soccer? It can be an incredibly useful tool when looking to turn profits on European soccer. 

I’m back with my weekly European soccer report that breaks down the most crucial information and analysis on Europe’s top leagues. This week, I will let you know the best ways to utilize handicap betting. 

Despite the top Euro leagues being on break again this week, Sports Hub is still providing you with your club soccer fix. It’s a good idea to continue using the information in my weekly reports to help you make your soccer picks. 

As always, we continue to see clear, consistent betting trends. Like last week, Ligue 1 Unders continue to hit. If you’re looking for Overs, head to the Bundesliga and La Liga. Let’s get into my report, starting with results and key statistics. 

European Soccer Weekly Report – Results & Key Stats 

Below you can find all the latest results from Ligue 1, the Bundesliga, Serie A and La Liga. We can learn crucial information from the outcomes of each matchup every single week. 

By analyzing the results, we can identify clear betting trends. After that, we can use those betting tendencies to help us make picks. Here are the latest set of results: 

Ligue 1: 

  • Montpellier 0-0 Nice
  • Reims 0-3 Paris Saint-Germain
  • Le Havre 0-0 Monaco
  • Metz 3-1 Nantes
  • Clermont 1-0 Lorient 
  • Lille 1-1 Toulouse 
  • Rennes 0-1 Lyon 
  • Lens 1-0 Marseille 

Key Stats: 

  • 25% of Ligue 1 matches saw both teams score during Week 12
  • 25% of Ligue 1 matches saw over 2.5 goals during Week 12
  • Nice are still the only team left in Ligue 1 to remain unbeaten
  • PSG have won their last five consecutive league games
  • There are now no winless teams left in the French top-flight after Lyon’s win 
  • Rennes are without a victory across their last five Ligue 1 outings
  • 37.5% of Ligue 1 matches resulted in home wins during Week 12
  • 37.5% of Ligue 1 matches resulted in draws during Week 12
  • 25% of Ligue 1 matches resulted in away wins during Week 12

Bundesliga: 

  • Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-0 Wolfsburg 
  • Darmstadt 0-0 Mainz
  • Stuttgart 2-1 Borussia Dortmund 
  • Augsburg 1-1 Hoffenheim 
  • Bayern Munich 4-2 Heidenheim 
  • Bochum 1-1 FC Köln 
  • Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 Union Berlin 
  • Werder Bremen 2-2 Frankfurt 
  • RB Leipzig 3-1 Freiburg 

Key Stats: 

  • 66.67% of Bundesliga games during Week 11 saw both teams score 
  • 66.67% of Bundesliga games during Week 11 saw over 2.5 goals
  • 55.56% of games during Week 11 saw over 3.5 Bundesliga goals
  • Leverkusen and Bayern are the only two teams that remain undefeated this term
  • Leverkusen have won their last seven consecutive league games
  • Bayern have recorded the victory in each of their last five Bundesliga outings
  • Union Berlin have lost their last nine Bundesliga matches in a row, failing to score across their last four
  • 55.56% of matches resulted in home wins during Week 11
  • 44.44% of matches resulted in draws during Week 11
  • 0% of matches resulted in away wins during Week 11

Serie A:

  • Sassuolo 2-2 Salernitana 
  • Genoa 1-0 Verona 
  • Lecce 2-2 Milan 
  • Juventus 2-1 Cagliari 
  • Monza 1-1 Torino 
  • Napoli 0-1 Empoli 
  • Fiorentina 2-1 Bologna
  • Udinese 1-1 Atalanta 
  • Lazio 0-0 Roma 
  • Inter 2-0 Frosinone 

Key Stats: 

  • 60% of matches from Week 12 saw both teams score in Serie A 
  • 40% of matches from Week 12 saw saw over 2.5 goals in Serie A
  • Inter and Juventus have all lost just one game this term
  • Juventus are unbeaten across their last seven matches, winning their last five in a row 
  • Salernitana are the only team left in the division without a victory so far this season 
  • Verona have lost their last five consecutive league games 
  • 40% of Serie A matches ended in home wins during Week 12
  • 50% of Serie A matches ended in draws during Week 12
  • 10% of Serie A matches ended in away wins during Week 12

La Liga: 

  • Athletic Bilbao 4-3 Celta Vigo 
  • Rayo Vallecano 1-2 Girona 
  • Almería 1-3 Real Sociedad 
  • Osasuna 1-1 Las Palmas 
  • Granada 1-1 Getafe 
  • Real Madrid 5-1 Valencia 
  • Barcelona 2-1 Alaves 
  • Sevilla 1-1 Real Betis 
  • Atletico Madrid 3-1 Villarreal 

Key Stats: 

  • 100% of La Liga matches saw both teams score during Week 13
  • 66.67% of La Liga matches saw over 2.5 goals during Week 13
  • 44.44% of matches during Week 13 saw over 3.5 La Liga goals
  • Girona have dropped points in just two games and sit top of the table
  • Girona have also won their last five successive La Liga outings
  • Real Madrid are unbeaten across their past seven league matches
  • Almeria are the only team left in La Liga yet to record a win; they have also lost their last five in a row
  • Celta Vigo haven’t won any of their past nine league matches, whilst Granada have failed to win any of their last ten
  • 44.44% of La Liga games ended in home wins during Week 13
  • 33.33% of La Liga games ended in draws during Week 13
  • 22.22% of La Liga games ended in away wins during Week 13

European Soccer Weekly Review – Handicap Betting

Handicap betting is a fairly overlooked strategy when it comes to wagering on soccer. Typically, bettors will look to place bets on the money line. However, over the past few weeks, I have successfully utilized handicap betting. Here are some examples:

  • FC Porto 2-0 Antwerp (Bet: Porto -1 ½, -105)
  • Atletico Madrid 6-0 Celtic (Bet: Atletico Madrid -1 ½, +112)
  • Salernitana 0-2 Napoli (Bet: Napoli -1 ½, +125)
  • Manchester City 6-1 Bournemouth (Bet: Man City -2 ½, -120)
  • Paris Saint-Germain 3-0 Montpellier (Bet: PSG -2, +103)

As you can see from the examples above, handicap betting on soccer will see the bookmakers set a line for the favorite to start a certain number of goals down. Conversely, the underdogs will start a certain amount of goals ahead, giving them an advantage. 

It is all about betting on the margin of victory in a given game. Stronger sides that usually dominate teams, such as Bayern Munich, Man City and PSG, often win by a considerable margin. Therefore, we can find great value when it comes to handicap betting. 

Favorites, especially at home, usually have incredibly small odds when it comes to the money line. Home advantage plays a key role in soccer. For example, home wins were the most common outcome in La Liga and the Bundesliga during the latest round of fixtures. We also saw high percentages for home wins in both Ligue 1 and Serie A too. 

We can still take advantage of betting on home favorites. Even though the money line odds are often too short, handicap value should be utilized if you want to bet on big favorites. This is a very common procedure when betting on the NFL, for example. However, it is not used enough when it comes to soccer betting. 

Euro Soccer Betting Trends – Handicap betting analysis 

Now that we have understood the basics and the reasons why we should look at handicap betting, it’s time now to take a look at the analysis. Below, I have highlighted the teams that are most suited to handicap betting for Europe’s top soccer leagues:

  • Bayern Munich have won by a margin of at least two goals in a total of eight league matches this season (72.73%)
  • Paris Saint-Germain have won by a margin of at least two goals in a total of seven league games this season (58.33%)
  • Inter have recorded the win by at least two goals in seven of their 12 Serie A games so far this season (58.33%)
  • Liverpool have won be a margin of at least two goals in a total of seven league matches this season (58.33%)
  • Bayer Leverkusen have record the victory by a margin of at least two goals in a total of six games this term (54.54%)
  • Manchester City have won by at least two goals in a total of six Premier League outings this term (50%)
  • Real Madrid have seen a total of six of their 13 league games won by a margin of at least two goals during the current campaign (46.15%)

The aforementioned seven teams have regularly been covering the spread this season when it comes to handicap betting. The sportsbooks will often change the line when it comes to the handicap so make sure you check the line for each matchup. 

A good tactic to identify ideal matches to target when it comes to handicap betting is to look at the goals scored and against statistics. For example, a team in the bottom half of the table may be susceptible to conceding a lot of goals. However, they may also be struggling because they don’t score much themselves. 

When a high-scoring side comes up against a team that has a poor defensive record, that is the best time to bet on the handicap. However, bettors should always check additional information such as injuries and lineups before making their selections. 

For example, if Man City have star forward Erling Haaland out injured, handicap betting becomes less valuable. Star players can make a huge impact on the margin of victory. Sometimes, stronger teams also rest their best players when they come up against weaker opposition. Again, this will likely have a big say in the result so make sure you check the lineups before making your bets. 

Ligue 1 Unders continue to trend 

The key theme of last week’s European soccer report focused on Ligue 1 totals. In particular, I stated that soccer bettors should look to the Unders when it comes to the totals market. Once again, the Unders continue to land in Ligue 1 so bettors will be able to find good value in this regard. 

Just 25% of Ligue 1 matches during Week 12 saw over 2.5 goals. The last time that the French top-flight saw over half of its games have over 2.5 goals was Week 8. That means that we have had four successive weeks where the Unders have been the most prominent. 

Here is a reminder of the best teams to target when it comes to betting on Ligue 1 Unders: 

  • Nice have seen 92% of their matches this season have under 2.5 goals
  • Lille have had 75% of their games this term see under 2.5 goals 
  • 64% of matches for Brest and Clermont have resulted in under 2.5 goals 
  • 100% of home games for Nice have seen under 2.5 goals, whilst 83% of their away games have had under 2.5 goals as well
  • Lille and Clermont have had 83% of their home matches have under 2.5 goals 
  • 80% of away games for Lyon and Rennes have resulted in under 2.5 goals 

Ultimately, the under 2.5 goals market in Ligue 1 has regularly hit this season. Unders also provide much greater value than Overs. Ligue 1 and Serie A have been the best leagues to target when it comes to Unders. Conversely, bettors should look to the Bundesliga and La Liga when it comes to Overs. 

European Soccer Weekly Review – Utilize Handicap Betting 

Handicap betting really isn’t used enough when it comes to soccer. A lot of the time we see favorites, especially at home, win games with ease. The handicap can offer much greater value for your soccer bets. 

Be sure to continue making the most out of the totals market as well. My weekly reports provide you with all the information you need when deciding to look at the Under or the Over. 

European soccer is on break this week due to another international break. However, Sports Hub has provided you with plenty of international soccer picks. Come back next week for more on Europe’s top leagues.