Analysis
Italy vs France Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nations League, Nov 12)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model leans France at low confidence, and it prices the draw at 15% against a market near 27%.
- France (10 pts) leads Italy (7) and clinches top spot with a win; it has allowed 2 goals in 4 group games.
- Mbappé, Marcus Thuram and Tchouaméni are out, and France drifted from -120 to even money.
Italy (2-1-1, 7 points) host Nations League group leader France (3-1-0, 10 points) at San Siro on Thursday at 2:45 PM ET (FS1). France sits at even money, Italy +240 and the draw +250. Les Bleus opened at -120 but have drifted since Kylian Mbappé, Marcus Thuram and Aurélien Tchouaméni all dropped out. The leader is getting thinner while the price gets fairer. Our call: no edge.
How these teams got here
This is matchday five of League A Group 1, and the table is tight. France leads on 10 points, Italy is second on 7, Belgium sits on 6 and Türkiye has 0. Türkiye and Belgium play in Izmir earlier on Thursday, and that result shapes this one. Per the Italian federation, an Italy win secures a quarterfinal place if Türkiye beat Belgium; otherwise Italy's spot comes down to Sunday's trip to Brussels. A France win clinches top spot.
France has been the steadier side: wins of 1-0 in Türkiye, 1-0 in Belgium and 4-1 at home to Belgium, plus a 1-1 draw with Italy in Paris on October 2. It has conceded just 2 goals in 4 games.
Italy's run has been bumpier. It opened with a 0-2 home loss to Belgium, then won 4-1 in Türkiye, drew in Paris and beat Türkiye 3-1 in Bologna. That is 8 goals scored and 5 allowed, which makes Italy's games the higher-scoring of the two.
Italy's young attack vs a patched France back line
Roberto Mancini told reporters he still has "a few doubts in attack" and will settle his lineup on matchday. The live options are young. Milan's Alphadjo Cisse, called up for his first senior camp, has eight goals in 13 games for his club this season per Sports Mole, and Pio Esposito has seven goals in 13 senior appearances by the same count. Riccardo Calafiori scored his first Italy goal in the Bologna win over Türkiye.
The other half of the matchup is Gianluigi Donnarumma. He made seven saves in the Paris draw, according to Sports Mole, and Italy needed every one of them.
France's back line is the bigger question. Pierre Kalulu (hamstring) and Jules Koundé are out, and William Saliba isn't in the squad, so uncapped Saël Kumbedi and Malo Gusto are competing at right back. Dayot Upamecano returns from the one-match ban he picked up for his red card against Italy last month.
Who's missing, and why it moved the price
France's list of absences is long. Zinedine Zidane, who succeeded Didier Deschamps this summer, ruled out Mbappé with hamstring discomfort. Zidane called it nothing major and expects him back for Sunday's home game with Türkiye. Marcus Thuram went back to Inter with a hamstring injury, and Tchouaméni reinjured his right adductor. Ousmane Dembélé and Manu Koné are also out, so Michael Olise, Désiré Doué and Bradley Barcola carry the attack.
Italy is short too. Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Giacomo Raspadori and Moise Kean were already out, and Roma defender Gianluca Mancini withdrew with a muscular injury. Federico Gatti and Udinese's Matteo Palma came in as cover.
How the line has moved
France opened at -120 and is now +100. Italy shortened from +290 to +240, while the draw barely moved (+245 to +250). The total has stayed at 2.5, with the over priced around -155. The market has already marked France down for its missing forwards.
Prediction: no edge
- The model is low confidence. It lists France as the more likely winner but labels that call low confidence, so it doesn't clear our bar for a pick.
- The draw is underpriced in the model. It gives the draw 15%, while the three-way market, with the margin removed, prices it near 27%. Any France "edge" comes from shrinking the draw.
- The market has already adjusted. With the margin removed, France is about 46%, Italy about 27% and the draw about 27%. That's a fair read of a leader missing three key players against a home side that needs points.
- History cuts both ways. Per the federation, Italy hasn't beaten France at home since 1962 and has lost its last three home games at the Meazza. Italy did hold France in Paris last month, though.
Swing factor: Italy's attack. If Cisse and Esposito start, Italy has the pace to test a France back line with a new right back. If Mancini goes conservative, France's control game takes over.
On the total: only one of France's four group games has gone over 2.5, while Italy's have split two and two. At around -155, the over costs too much to recommend.
