Analysis
England vs Croatia Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nations League, Nov 12)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge on the result: England at about 73% no-vig is fair, and the model only beats it because it gives the draw just 5%.
- England beat Croatia 7-0 in October and need only to avoid defeat to clinch a quarterfinal spot.
- Croatia are without Ivan Perisic (suspended), who has been involved in 3 of their 4 group goals.
- England are missing three defenders: Guehi, Konsa and the suspended Lewis-Skelly.
England (3-0-1 in Nations League play) host Croatia (1-0-3) at Wembley on Thursday, Nov. 12 at 2:45 PM ET, streaming on Fubo. England are around -380 to win in 90 minutes, with the draw at +450 and Croatia at +800. The hook is simple: England won 7-0 in Croatia five weeks ago and need only to avoid defeat to clinch a quarterfinal spot. But they arrive three defenders short. Our call: no edge on the result.
How these teams got here
England's only group loss came at this stadium, a 3-2 defeat to Spain on matchday one. They have won three straight since, outscoring Czechia and Croatia 12-0 across those games: 2-0 in Czechia, 7-0 in Croatia and 3-0 against Czechia at Wembley. That leaves Thomas Tuchel's side second on 9 points with a +11 goal difference, three points behind Spain, who are perfect at 4-0. The two meet in Madrid on Sunday.
Croatia have gone the other way. After opening with a 2-1 win in Czechia, Slaven Bilic's team lost 4-1 in Spain, 7-0 at home to England and 1-2 at home to Spain in October. That's 4 goals scored and 14 conceded in four matches. Croatia sit third on 3 points, and pre-match coverage frames their week around protecting their League A status rather than chasing England.
Kane against a Croatia side without its most dangerous wide man
Harry Kane leads the group with 6 goals in 4 matches, and he is in line to pass Peter Shilton's England caps record with his 126th appearance. Jude Bellingham has 4 assists, and Anthony Gordon has added 3 goals. England have put up at least two goals in every group game.
Croatia's attack has run through Ivan Perisic, who has been involved in three of their four goals (one goal, two assists). He's suspended after his red card against Spain. That leaves the chance creation on Luka Modric, now 41 and chasing cap No. 207, and on Mateo Kovacic in midfield. Igor Matanovic leads Croatia with 10 shots, but nobody on the roster has more than one goal in this competition.
England's thin back line is the one real question
England's absences are all at the back. Marc Guehi withdrew injured, Ezri Konsa is ruled out and following his own program, and Myles Lewis-Skelly is suspended after two bookings against Czechia. Pre-match reports project a back four of Trent Alexander-Arnold, Jarell Quansah, Jarrad Branthwaite and Lewis Hall, which is a rebuilt unit for a team that has conceded 3 goals in four games.
Croatia's list is longer. Along with Perisic, centre-backs Josip Sutalo and Martin Pongracic are injured, as are Andrej Kramaric, Franjo Ivanovic and Kristijan Jakic. A side that has already allowed 3.5 goals per game is missing two more defenders.
How the line has moved
The market has eased slightly toward Croatia. England opened around -425 and sit near -380, Croatia drifted in from +850 to +800, and the draw has held at +450. England -1.5 goals has come in from -145 to about -135. The total sits at 3.5, shaded to the under (around -150), barely moved from the open.
Prediction: no edge
England should win, but the price already says so. Here's why we're passing on the result:
- The market is already at 73%. With the vig removed, -380 / +450 / +800 works out to roughly England 73%, draw 17%, Croatia 10%.
- The model's edge rests on its draw number. It has England at 81% but the draw at only 5%. Give the draw the market's share and England land around 71%, slightly below the market.
- The form gap is priced in. The 7-0 in October and the +11 vs. -10 goal difference are exactly why England are this short.
- England's defence is the swing factor. Three defenders are missing, and the same building produced their only loss.
At -380 there's no value in England on the moneyline. The bigger risk is a lower-tempo game: England only need a point, and Croatia are playing for League A survival. That's also why the total is shaded under 3.5, though October's 7-0 cleared it on its own. We lean slightly toward a controlled England win rather than another rout, but not strongly enough to headline.
