Analysis
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina Prediction, Picks & Odds (Serie A Matchday 10)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model has Fiorentina 43% at very low confidence, only about three points above the no-vig market.
- The line flipped: Sassuolo opened +140 favorites and are now +170, while Fiorentina shortened from +155 to +130.
- Both defenses leak: Sassuolo allow 2.44 goals per game and Fiorentina 2.33, and the total has moved from 2.5 to 3.5.
- Sassuolo are 2-1-1 at home; Fiorentina are 1-0-3 away with one win all season.
Two of Serie A's leakiest defenses meet Monday at 12:30 PM ET at the Mapei Stadium in Reggio Emilia (Paramount+). Sassuolo (2-2-5, 15th) hosts Fiorentina (1-2-6, 17th), and the market has flipped: Sassuolo opened the favorite, and now Fiorentina sits around +130 with Sassuolo near +170 and the draw around +265. The total has jumped from 2.5 to 3.5. Our model leans Fiorentina at very low confidence, so this is no edge.
How these teams got here
Sassuolo are coming apart at the back. Alberto Aquilani's side has lost three straight, conceding 12 goals in that run, capped by a 6-2 home loss to Lazio on Tuesday that also cost them Thorstvedt to a red card. They haven't won since beating Juventus 3-2 on Sept. 13, and they've allowed 22 goals in nine games, 2.44 per match.
The Mapei is still where they compete. Sassuolo are 2-1-1 at home (wins over Juventus and Torino, a 1-1 draw with Milan) and 0-1-4 away.
Fiorentina are worse on paper and only slightly better in form. Paolo Vanoli's team has one win all season, 4-2 at Venezia on Sept. 11, and is winless in five since. Thursday's 2-2 draw with Atalanta in Florence stopped a three-game losing run. They've scored 11 and allowed 21, and they're 1-0-3 on the road.
Rest matters a little here. Sassuolo last played Tuesday; Fiorentina played Thursday night, so the visitors get two fewer days to recover.
Goals at both ends
This matchup is about two back lines that can't keep anyone out. Sassuolo's league games have averaged 4.0 total goals, and seven of their nine have gone over 2.5. Fiorentina's have averaged 3.6, with eight of nine over 2.5. That's why the total moved a full goal.
Up front, Sassuolo spread the scoring around. Vasilije Adzic leads with 3 goals, while Domenico Berardi and Sebastiano Esposito have 2 each. Armand Laurienté is the volume shooter with a team-high 28 shots. Nemanja Matic runs the midfield, with a team-high 356 accurate passes, but Thorstvedt's ban leaves him with less help.
Fiorentina run through Franco Mastantuono, who has 3 goals on a team-high 33 shots. Mateo Pellegrino and Álex Jiménez have 2 goals each, and Nicolò Fagioli and Jiménez lead the team with 2 assists apiece, though Fagioli may lose his spot to Oulai in midfield.
In goal, David de Gea has made 33 saves for Fiorentina. Sassuolo's projected starter is Stefano Turati, per Sky Sport Italia and Calciodangolo, even though Arijanet Muric has made 32 saves this season.
Who's missing
Sassuolo will be without the suspended Thorstvedt plus Koné, Leysen and Boloca, per Sky Sport Italia and Calciodangolo. Idzes is expected back at center back after injury, but Calciodangolo describes him as not at 100%. That's four players gone for a team that just gave up six at home.
Fiorentina are without Pongracic, Parisi and Atta, and Luca Ranieri is still training apart and is doubtful. Radu Dragusin and Viery are the projected center-back pair in front of de Gea, with Jiménez and João Mário at fullback.
Neither side is getting the reinforcements it needs.
How the line has moved
The money has gone Fiorentina's way. Sassuolo opened as a +140 favorite and has drifted to +170, while Fiorentina has shortened from +155 to +130 and the draw has stretched from +245 to +265. The total opened at 2.5 and now sits at 3.5, with the under shaded around -170 at that number.
That's the market reacting to Sassuolo's 6-2 collapse and the Thorstvedt suspension, plus a Fiorentina side that at least showed fight against Atalanta.
Prediction: no edge
Our model has Fiorentina 43%, Sassuolo 36%, draw 21% at very low confidence. Remove the vig from the current prices and the market says roughly Fiorentina 40%, Sassuolo 34%, draw 25%. That's a three-point gap on a model that's barely confident in it, so we're calling no edge.
- The venue records cancel out. Sassuolo's 2-1-1 home record argues for the hosts; Fiorentina's lone win came away from home, and they're 1-0-3 on the road.
- Both defenses are broken. 22 and 21 goals allowed in nine games each, so there's no reliable unit to trust.
- The absences cut both ways. Sassuolo are missing four players, Thorstvedt included; Fiorentina are missing three, with Ranieri doubtful.
- The price already moved. Fiorentina at +130 is shorter than the opener, and the value the model sees has mostly been taken.
Swing factor: Idzes. If he's sharp, Sassuolo's back line looks a lot less like the one Lazio shredded on Tuesday.
On the total: both teams' history points to goals, but the market has already moved a full goal to 3.5. We won't chase it.
