Como vs SassuoloPrediction, Picks & Odds

Fifth-place Como (4-2-1, 14 points) host 13th-place Sassuolo (2-2-3, 8 points) at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia on Saturday, Oct. 24 at 9:00 a.m. ET, streaming on Paramount+. Como are priced around -220 to -250 to win in 90 minutes, with the draw near +330 to +350. The tension: Como are coming off a Champions League night three days earlier, while Sassuolo have had eight days off. Our call: no edge.

How these teams got here

Cesc Fàbregas has Como sitting fifth with 12 goals scored and 7 conceded through seven league games, a +5 goal difference. The last five matches across all competitions have been a ride. It started with a 2-0 loss at Frosinone on Sept. 20 and a 0-0 draw with Roma, then a 3-2 Champions League loss at Feyenoord. Since then Como have turned it on: a 3-1 win at Fiorentina on Oct. 18 and a 4-1 Champions League thumping of Manchester United on Wednesday.

Sassuolo under Alberto Aquilani have scored just as many league goals as Como (12) but allowed twice as many (14). That's a -2 goal difference and the profile of a team that plays open games. Their run includes a 3-2 win over Juventus and a 1-1 draw with AC Milan. It also includes a 2-1 loss at Monza and a 4-2 loss at Frosinone on Oct. 16, their last outing.

Como's control vs Sassuolo's chaos

This is a game about whether Sassuolo can survive long spells without the ball. Como's attack is spread out: Anastasios Douvikas leads the club with 3 league goals, with Assane Diao and Martin Baturina on 2 each. Nico Paz and Álex Valle each have 2 assists. No single player carries the load, which makes Como hard to game-plan against.

Sassuolo's goals come from Vasilije Adžić (3), defender Cas Odenthal (2) and captain Domenico Berardi (2), with Darryl Bakola leading in assists (2). They can score on anyone, as Juventus found out. The problem is the back line: 14 conceded in seven games is the fifth-most in Serie A. Como games have averaged 2.7 total goals, and Sassuolo games 3.7.

Fatigue and team news

The schedule is the most interesting variable. Como played a full-intensity Champions League match on Wednesday and travel to Torino on Tuesday. Sassuolo last played on Oct. 16 and host Lazio on Tuesday. If Fàbregas rotates the side that beat Manchester United, Sassuolo get a softer version of Como than the price implies.

We couldn't confirm any injury or suspension news for either club from an official or reliable source before publishing, which is why the injury table is empty. Check the confirmed lineups about an hour before kickoff, especially Como's front line after Wednesday's game.

Prediction: no edge

No edge on Como vs Sassuolo. The market makes Como roughly a 63% favorite once the vig is stripped from a -220 price. Our model rates this a near coin flip with very low confidence. That gap is too wide to trust either way, and here's why we pass:

• The table says Como. Fifth vs 13th, a +5 vs -2 goal difference, and home field all point one way, and the price already reflects it.
• The schedule says Sassuolo. Eight days of rest against three, with Como coming off an emotional European win.
• Sassuolo's defense is the swing. Fourteen goals allowed in seven games says Como should create plenty, but laying -220 with a possibly rotated lineup is expensive, not valuable.
• The draw isn't a value play either. At +330 to +350, a stalemate needs both sides to stay quiet, and Sassuolo's matches are averaging 3.7 goals.

The risk factor is rotation. A strong Como XI makes the favorite look fair; a heavily rotated one makes Sassuolo live.

On the total, the market sits at 3.5 with the under shaded. Sassuolo games are averaging 3.7 goals, Como games 2.7, and that split is exactly why the number lands where it does. We'd stay off it.