Analysis
Vegas Golden Knights vs Utah Mammoth Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov 11, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- Our pick: Golden Knights moneyline (-127). The model makes Vegas about a 63% winner against a market price implying 55.6% to 56.5%.
- Goaltending gap: Vegas' Hart (.900) and Hill (.903) vs. Utah's Vejmelka (.870) and Cossa (.871).
- Utah's 37.1% power play against a 76.5% Vegas penalty kill is the biggest threat to the pick.
- Vegas is 6-3-0 at home and has won three straight; Utah plays its sixth straight road game.
The Vegas Golden Knights (12-5-2) host the Utah Mammoth (10-7-1) at T-Mobile Arena on Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET (TNT, truTV, HBO Max). Vegas is -125 to -130 on the moneyline with the total at 6.5. Utah owns a 37.1% power play, but its goalies are stopping barely 87% of the shots they face. That gap decides it. Our pick: Golden Knights moneyline (-127).
How these teams got here
Vegas comes home hot. The Golden Knights went 3-0-1 on a four-game road swing: a 3-2 shootout loss in Boston, then wins at Pittsburgh (3-2), Detroit (2-1) and Buffalo (4-1) on Sunday. That's three straight wins and only six goals allowed in four games. They're 6-3-0 at home and have allowed 2.63 goals per game, with a +13 goal differential.
Utah is a .500 team by goal differential: 63 scored, 63 allowed through 18 games. The Mammoth just finished a five-game eastern trip at 2-2-1, ending with a 5-4 overtime loss in Montreal and a 4-2 loss in Ottawa on Saturday. They're 2-3-1 in their last six.
The schedule doesn't help Utah. Wednesday is its sixth straight road game (the last home date was Oct. 27 against Minnesota), and the Mammoth host St. Louis the next night. Both teams are rested: Utah has been off since Saturday, Vegas since Sunday afternoon.
Utah's power play vs. the goaltending gap
Utah's special teams are the best thing it has. The power play is converting at 37.1%, led by Nick Schmaltz (7 power-play goals), Dylan Guenther (5) and Logan Cooley (11 goals, 21 points). Clayton Keller leads the team with 24 points (5 G, 19 A), and Mikhail Sergachev has 20 from the blue line. Vegas' penalty kill sits at 76.5%, so every Golden Knights minor is a real risk.
At even strength the picture flips. Utah outshoots opponents 29.9 to 25.1 per game and still gives up 3.50 goals a game, because neither goalie is stopping pucks:
- Karel Vejmelka: 6-6-0, .870 save percentage, 3.29 GAA
- Sebastian Cossa: 4-1-1, .871, 3.30 GAA
Vegas has two goalies at about .900: Carter Hart (5-3-2, .900, 2.49) and Adin Hill (7-2-0, .903, 2.54). The Golden Knights alternated them across the road trip (Hart, Hill, Hart, Hill), so Hart is next if the rotation holds. Neither club had announced a starter as of Tuesday night.
Up front, Jack Eichel has 24 points (8 G, 16 A), Mitch Marner has 17 assists in 17 games, and Mark Stone has 10 goals, four on the power play. Tomas Hertl adds 9 goals, five of them with the man advantage. That gives Vegas a 26.3% power play against a Utah penalty kill at just 69.6%.
Injuries: Utah's blue line is thin
Utah's defense is short-handed. Nate Schmidt (upper body) is out with no timeline, per the Deseret News. John Marino and Maveric Lamoureux are on injured reserve, and the Mammoth recalled defenseman Zac Jones from Tucson on Monday. Forward Kailer Yamamoto is also on IR.
The bigger question is Guenther. He missed Monday's practice for what coach André Tourigny called maintenance after getting banged up, and he's day-to-day. His five power-play goals are a big piece of Utah's best weapon.
Vegas loses Noah Hanifin, who is out and considered week-to-week, per Sin Bin Vegas. Parker Wotherspoon is still on injured reserve but was a full participant in Tuesday's practice.
Prediction: Golden Knights moneyline (-127)
The model makes Vegas about a 63% winner. The licensed moneyline of -125 to -130 implies 55.6% to 56.5%. That's an edge worth taking at medium confidence:
- Goaltending: Vegas' pair sits at about .900; Utah's two are at .870 and .871.
- Defense: 2.63 goals allowed per game vs. Utah's 3.50.
- Form: Vegas is on a three-game win streak after a 3-0-1 trip; Utah is 2-3-1 in its last six.
- Spot: Vegas is 6-3-0 at home, and Utah plays its sixth straight road game with a home game the next night.
The risk: Utah's 37.1% power play against a 76.5% Vegas kill. If the Golden Knights take four or five penalties, Utah can steal this. Guenther's status matters too.
The total: 6.5, with the under priced at -110 to -122. Utah's games are averaging 7.0 goals and Vegas' about 6.0, so we have no play on the total.
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