Analysis
Ducks vs Predators Prediction, Picks & Odds (Wednesday, Nov 11)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model has Anaheim at 54%, below the roughly 57% implied by -143 to -149.
- Anaheim's power play is at 38.5%; Nashville's penalty kill is at 88.5%.
- Nashville allows 2.82 goals a game to Anaheim's 3.67, but the Ducks score 3.83.
- Nashville is on a back-to-back after Saros's shutout in L.A., and its starter is unconfirmed.
The Anaheim Ducks (10-7-1) host the Nashville Predators (9-4-5) at Honda Center on Wednesday at 10:00 PM ET (FOX LA+ and Prime Video in Anaheim, Scripps in Nashville). Anaheim is priced at -143 to -149, the total sits at 6.5, and both teams carry five-game winning streaks. One of them gets there by outscoring people, the other by shutting the door. Nashville is also on the second night of a back-to-back. SportsHub's call: no edge.
How these teams got here
Anaheim has scored five or more goals in five straight wins: 6-3 over Ottawa, 5-4 at Vancouver, 5-4 at Edmonton, 5-3 at Calgary and 5-2 over Pittsburgh on Sunday. That's 3.83 goals per game for the season, but the Ducks also give up 3.67, so most of their nights stay wide open. They have been better on the road (7-3-0) than at home (3-4-1).
Nashville's streak is built the other way. The Predators have allowed four goals in their last four games: 4-1 over Carolina, 3-2 in overtime at Colorado, 3-1 over St. Louis and a 3-0 win in Los Angeles on Tuesday. They're at 2.82 goals against per game through 17 games entering Tuesday, almost a full goal better than Anaheim.
Anaheim's power play vs Nashville's penalty kill
This is the matchup that decides the game. Anaheim's power play is converting at 38.5%, and Cutter Gauthier has 10 of his 15 goals with the man advantage. Leo Carlsson leads the team with 26 points (6 goals, 20 assists), and Jackson LaCombe has 21 assists from the blue line. Nashville's penalty kill sits at 88.5%, so something has to give.
At even strength, Nashville gets its offense from its veterans. Roman Josi and Filip Forsberg have 20 points each, and Steven Stamkos has 10 goals, six of them on the power play. Anaheim's penalty kill is only 73.0%, so the Predators' own power play (29.8%) has a real opening too.
Who's in goal
The goalie matchup is the big unknown. Juuse Saros made 28 saves in the shutout at Los Angeles on Tuesday. He came into that game at .911 with a 2.62 GAA over 12 starts. With a back-to-back, Justus Annunen (3-1-0, 3.40 GAA, .874) is the likelier starter, but Nashville hasn't confirmed it. Whether Saros or Annunen starts changes the whole read on this game.
Anaheim's goaltending has been leaky all season. Lukas Dostal is at .866 with a 3.76 GAA over 10 starts. Laurent Brossoit is 4-0-0 but at only .877, and Ville Husso is at .868.
On the injury front, Troy Terry (hip, on IR) is expected to make his season debut on Wednesday, per The Athletic. Anaheim is still without Ryan Poehling and A.J. Greer. Nashville's Jonathan Marchessault (lower body) is out after missing Tuesday's game.
Prediction: no edge
No edge. Our model makes Anaheim a slim favorite at 54%, below the roughly 57% the market sets once the vig is stripped from -143 to -149. Here's why we're staying off it:
- Anaheim's 38.5% power play against Nashville's 88.5% penalty kill is a strength-on-strength matchup with no clear winner.
- Nashville's 2.82 goals against beats Anaheim's 3.67, but the Ducks are scoring 3.83 a game.
- The goalie is unconfirmed. Annunen at .874 is a very different bet from Saros at .911.
- Anaheim is only 3-4-1 at home, so the home-ice bump is thin.
Swing factor: if Saros starts again, Nashville at +120 to +125 gets more interesting. If it's Annunen behind a tired team, the Ducks' power play has the edge.
Total: 6.5 with the over juiced (-120 to -125). Anaheim's games average more than 7 combined goals, while Nashville's last four have averaged under 5. We have no strong take on the total either.
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