Analysis
Avalanche vs Penguins Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct 16)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- Pick: Avalanche moneyline at -192, medium confidence. The model's 67% tops the roughly 65.8% the best licensed price implies.
- Colorado scores 4.43 goals per game to Pittsburgh's 3.57, led by Nathan MacKinnon's 12 points in seven games.
- Both projected goalies are struggling: Blackwood at .879 and Silovs below .890.
- Pittsburgh's 89.5% penalty kill is the Penguins' best path to an upset.
The Colorado Avalanche (4-2-1) host the Pittsburgh Penguins (3-3-1) on Friday at 9 p.m. ET at Ball Arena (ALT, KTVD, SN-PIT). Colorado is a -192 to -227 favorite, with Pittsburgh +160 to +185 and the total at 6.5. The Avalanche have scored 31 goals in seven games behind Nathan MacKinnon's 12 points, but neither projected goalie has found his form yet. Our pick: Avalanche moneyline (-192), medium confidence.
How these teams got here
Colorado comes home from a home-and-home with Dallas: a 3-2 win in Dallas on Oct. 13, then a 3-2 shootout loss in Denver the next night. Friday is its first game after a day off. The Avalanche are averaging 4.43 goals per game and allowing 3.14, and they have outshot opponents 214-176 through seven games.
Pittsburgh's start has been streaky. The Penguins won 7-0 in Philadelphia and beat Montreal in overtime, then lost 5-3 in Chicago on Tuesday despite two goals from Sidney Crosby. They score 3.57 per game and allow the same 3.14 as Colorado, with shots almost dead even at 199-198.
The gap is at the top of the scoring chart. MacKinnon has five goals and 12 points in seven games, Martin Necas has four goals and seven points, and Cale Makar has three goals and seven points from the blue line. Nicholas Robertson leads Pittsburgh with four goals.
Goaltending and special teams
This is not a goalie duel. Mackenzie Blackwood is the projected Colorado starter at 3-2-0 with an .879 save percentage, and Arturs Silovs is expected for Pittsburgh at 3-1-0 with a save percentage below .890. Neither start was confirmed Friday morning, and Scott Wedgewood and Sergei Murashov are the alternates.
With both goalies leaking, the team that creates more chances should win, and that is Colorado. The Avalanche's power play is 5-for-25 (20.0%), built around MacKinnon, Makar and Necas. Pittsburgh's is 4-for-24 (16.7%).
Pittsburgh has the better penalty kill. The Penguins have allowed just two power-play goals on 19 chances (89.5%), while Colorado sits at 82.4%. If the Penguins stay out of the box and keep this at five-on-five, Crosby's line with Rickard Rakell and Bryan Rust can keep them close.
Injuries and lineup notes
Colorado has two forwards on injured reserve in Logan O'Connor and Georgii Merkulov, and Nicolas Roy and Zachary L'Heureux are day-to-day. Roy's status matters most, since a missing center pushes more minutes onto a top line of Lehkonen, MacKinnon and Kadri.
Pittsburgh is thinner on the back end. Defensemen Ryan Graves and Trevor van Riemsdyk are on injured reserve, along with forward Justin Brazeau. The Penguins' current pairs are Carlile-Karlsson, Girard-Korczak and Stastney-Letang, which puts a lot on Karlsson and Letang against MacKinnon's line.
Prediction: Avalanche moneyline
Pick: Colorado Avalanche moneyline at -192 (medium confidence). The model gives Colorado a 67% win probability; the best licensed price of -192 implies about 65.8%. That is a thin edge, which is why this is the Avalanche at the shortest price and not the puck line.
- Firepower. Colorado's 4.43 goals per game is nearly a goal better than Pittsburgh's 3.57.
- MacKinnon. Twelve points in seven games, with Necas and Makar each at seven.
- Shot share. Colorado is plus-38 in shots; Pittsburgh is plus-one.
- Rest and travel. The Avalanche had Thursday off at home; the Penguins come in after a loss in Chicago.
- Blue-line injuries. Pittsburgh is without two defensemen against MacKinnon's line.
The swing factor is Pittsburgh's penalty kill. At 89.5% it can blunt Colorado's best weapon, and a hot night from Silovs turns a one-goal game into a coin flip.
On the total of 6.5, both goalies are under .890 and both teams allow 3.14 per game, which leans over, but the over is already priced at -118 to -127. We would leave it alone.
