Analysis
Ducks vs Bruins Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct 16)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- Pick: Bruins moneyline at -118, medium confidence. The model's 69% is well above the roughly 52% to 55% the market implies.
- Boston has allowed 2.29 goals per game and outscored opponents 23-10 at even strength.
- Jeremy Swayman is 5-1-0 with a 1.99 GAA.
- Anaheim's 33.3% power play against Boston's 76.0% penalty kill is the Ducks' path to a sixth straight win in the series.
The Boston Bruins (5-2-0) visit the Anaheim Ducks (4-2-0) on Friday at 10 p.m. ET at Honda Center (NESN, KCOP-13). This is close to a pick'em: Boston is -110 to -120, Anaheim +101 to -108, with the total at 6.5. Boston has allowed just 16 goals in seven games, while Anaheim's power play is clicking at 33.3% and the Ducks have won five straight meetings. Our pick: Bruins moneyline (-118), medium confidence.
How these teams got here
Boston arrives on a three-game winning streak: 6-1 over Utah, 5-1 over Philadelphia, and 6-3 in San Jose on Tuesday. The Bruins are scoring 3.71 goals per game and allowing 2.29, and they have dominated at even strength, 23-10.
Anaheim is 4-2-0 but coming off a loss. The Ducks led Calgary 2-1 after the first period, then gave up the next three goals in a 4-2 defeat despite 32 saves from Lukas Dostal. They score 3.33 per game and allow 2.83.
The shot totals tell a quieter story for both. Boston has been outshot 201-179 in seven games and has leaned on a .920 team save percentage. Anaheim has been outshot 162-141 in six, and its 23.5 shots per game ranks near the bottom of the league.
Swayman and the special-teams gap
Jeremy Swayman is the projected Boston starter, and he has been the Bruins' backbone: 5-1-0 with a 1.99 goals-against average. Dostal is expected in goal for Anaheim. Neither start was confirmed Friday morning; Ville Husso (1-0-0, 1.58 GAA) is the Ducks' alternative.
Boston's scoring runs through David Pastrnak (two goals, eight points) and Fraser Minten (four goals, seven points). Anaheim counters with Leo Carlsson (two goals, nine points) and Beckett Sennecke (four goals, seven points).
Special teams are where Anaheim can flip this game. The Ducks' power play has converted 33.3% of its 21 chances, with seven power-play goals, and their penalty kill sits at 90.5%. Boston's power play is 3-for-18 (16.7%), and its penalty kill has allowed six goals on 25 chances (76.0%). If the Bruins take penalties, this is a different game.
Anaheim's injury list
The Ducks are short at forward. Troy Terry is on long-term injured reserve with a hip injury, and Ryan Poehling is on injured reserve with an MCL sprain that is expected to cost him six to eight weeks. Defenseman Ian Moore is also on injured reserve.
Two more forwards are day-to-day with upper-body injuries: Cutter Gauthier and Mikael Granlund. Granlund matters most. He recorded a point in each of Anaheim's first six games, a franchise first, and losing him would take a piece out of a power play that has carried the offense.
Boston reports no injuries.
Prediction: Bruins moneyline
Pick: Boston Bruins moneyline at -118 (medium confidence). The model gives Boston a 69% win probability, far above the roughly 52% to 55% implied by a -110 to -120 price.
- Goal differential. Boston is plus-10 through seven games; Anaheim is plus-three through six.
- Even strength. The Bruins have outscored opponents 23-10 at five-on-five, where most of this game will be played.
- Swayman. A 1.99 GAA gives Boston the steadier goalie on paper.
- Health. Boston has a clean injury report; Anaheim is without Terry and Poehling and could be without Gauthier and Granlund.
- Form. Boston has won three straight by a combined 17-5.
The swing factor is discipline. Anaheim's 33.3% power play against Boston's 76.0% penalty kill is the matchup that can turn this, and it is a big part of why the Ducks have won the last five meetings.
On the total of 6.5, the under is priced at -120 to -128 with Boston's defense in good form, but the Ducks' power play cuts the other way. We are passing on it.
