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Analysis
Spurs vs Suns Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov 9, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model makes the Spurs 70% winners, short of the ~78% the -355 to -359 moneyline implies, and -8.5 is a big number for a 70% favorite.
- San Antonio has won eight straight and outscores opponents by 10.3 points a game; Phoenix is 3-5 at -6.3.
- The glass decides it: the Spurs average 48.5 rebounds to the Suns' 39.3, and Phoenix is without center Mark Williams.
- Watch Devin Vassell (questionable, left adductor); Tobias Harris is out for San Antonio.
The San Antonio Spurs (8-2) bring an eight-game winning streak into Phoenix to face the Suns (3-5) on Monday at 9 p.m. ET at Mortgage Matchup Center, on Arizona's Family 3TV and Suns Live locally, with DAZN streaming in the Spurs' market. San Antonio is an 8.5-point road favorite and -355 to -359 on the moneyline. The Spurs are the better team on nearly every line of the box score; the question is the price. Our call: no edge.
How these teams got here
San Antonio opened the season 0-2 with home losses to Oklahoma City (116-104) and Houston (114-110). It hasn't lost since. Eight straight wins have pushed the Spurs to 118.4 points scored and 108.1 allowed per game, a +10.3 average margin. They are 4-0 on the road, and the last two stops on this trip were not close: 124-109 at Sacramento and 125-103 at Portland on Saturday.
Phoenix is heading the other way on the season, if not this week. The Suns opened with a 124-83 loss at Portland and dropped four of five in one stretch before beating Orlando 117-104 and Houston 102-99 at home. They score 112.4 and allow 118.6, a -6.3 margin, and they are 3-2 at home and 0-3 away.
Both teams last played Saturday, so neither is short on rest tonight. The schedule spot belongs to Phoenix, though, in the wrong way: the Suns host the Clippers on Tuesday, so this is the front end of a back-to-back.
Wembanyama against a Suns frontcourt without Mark Williams
Victor Wembanyama is averaging 29.1 points and 12.0 rebounds, and he is the reason this matchup tilts so hard on the glass. San Antonio averages 48.5 rebounds a game, 13.2 of them offensive. Phoenix averages 39.3. That is a nine-board gap before you account for the Suns playing without center Mark Williams, who is out after left shoulder surgery. Miles Bridges leads Phoenix at 8.1 rebounds per game.
The Spurs also protect the rim better (7.0 blocks to 4.9) and take better care of the ball (12.8 turnovers to 14.1). De'Aaron Fox runs the offense at 5.9 assists a night.
Phoenix's path runs through the perimeter. The Suns shoot 47.2% from the field and 35.9% from three, making 13.3 threes a game, all better than San Antonio's 45.6%, 34.4% and 12.4. Devin Booker (25.2 points, 4.9 assists) has to win his matchup by a wide margin, and Phoenix's 9.3 steals a game give it a way to steal possessions back from a team that dominates the boards.
The injury report: San Antonio's wings are thin
The league's 9 a.m. ET injury report lists Tobias Harris out (left calf strain) and Devin Vassell questionable (left adductor tightness) for the Spurs, along with Jayden Quaintance (right knee surgery). Losing Harris trims a veteran forward from the rotation; losing Vassell too would leave San Antonio's wing depth genuinely short at the third stop of a road trip.
For Phoenix, Williams is out and guard Jordan Goodwin is questionable (right calf injury management). Williams matters more to this game than anyone else on either list, because size is exactly where Phoenix is already outgunned.
How the line has moved
The moneyline opened at -365 for San Antonio and has drifted to -355 to -359, a small tick toward Phoenix. The spread has held at 8.5 all day. The total opened at 226.5 and sits at 227.5 across the licensed books.
Prediction: no edge
Our model makes San Antonio a 70% winner at medium confidence. The moneyline at -355 to -359 implies roughly 78%, so the market is more bullish on the Spurs than the model is. ESPN's matchup predictor (75.7%) lands below the market too. That's why we aren't headlining a side:
- The price is too high. A 70% win probability doesn't justify laying -355 or more on the moneyline.
- The spread asks for a blowout. -8.5 is a big number for a 70% favorite, even with San Antonio's +10.3 season average.
- Phoenix's shooting edge is real. 47.2% from the field and 35.9% from three keep the Suns in games at home, where they're 3-2.
- San Antonio's depth is dinged. Harris is out and Vassell is questionable.
The swing factor: the glass. If Wembanyama turns a 48.5-to-39.3 rebounding edge into extra possessions, this gets out of hand quickly, and that's the case for the Spurs covering.
On the total: San Antonio's games average 226.5 combined points and Phoenix's 231.0, so 227.5 sits right between them. No play there either.
No edge on Spurs vs Suns: we'd rather pass than lay a price the model doesn't support.
