Analysis
Hornets vs Cavaliers Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov 9, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model has Cleveland around 73%, below the 77%+ that the -333 to -370 moneyline already implies.
- Charlotte has lost six straight, scoring 96.3 points per game on 28.8% shooting from three.
- Brandon Miller (20.6 PPG), Kon Knueppel and Dennis Schroder are out for Charlotte; Jarrett Allen is questionable for Cleveland.
- Cleveland is 1-3 on the road and has lost three of its last five.
The Cleveland Cavaliers (5-5) visit the Charlotte Hornets (3-7) on Monday, Nov. 9 at 7:00 p.m. ET at Spectrum Center (WAXN-TV64, DAZN, NBA League Pass). Cleveland is laying 8.5 to 9.5 points and -333 to -370 on the moneyline. Charlotte has lost six straight and will be without Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel and Dennis Schroder. The Cavs are the better side tonight, but the price has already caught up. Our call is no edge.
How these teams got here
Charlotte opened 3-1, then fell apart. The Hornets have lost six in a row, and the last three at home have come by 5, 33 and 39 points. Friday's 119-80 loss to Boston was the low point: Charlotte shot 28% in the first half, turned it over eight times before the break, and lost Miller to an injury in the second quarter. For the season the Hornets score 96.3 points per game and allow 110.2, shooting 39.3% from the floor and 28.8% from three.
Cleveland is a .500 team that hasn't found a rhythm. The Cavs are 4-2 at home but 1-3 on the road, and they've lost three of their last five. Two of those losses came against Oklahoma City. On Saturday the Knicks beat them 109-97 in Cleveland, even with Donovan Mitchell scoring a season-high 37 points, 21 of them in the fourth quarter. The night before, they beat Philadelphia 119-95.
Neither team is on a back-to-back. Charlotte last played Friday and Cleveland on Saturday, so tonight is the Cavs' third game in four days.
Cleveland's creators vs. a gutted Hornets rotation
This is a mismatch at the guard spots. Mitchell is averaging 24.0 points, James Harden 15.7 points and 5.8 assists, and Evan Mobley 18.4 points and 8.1 rebounds. Cleveland makes 15.4 threes per game at 36.4%, and Charlotte's opponents are shooting 40.8% from deep and 47.2% overall.
Charlotte's healthy scorers are Naz Reid (16.6 points, 8.1 rebounds) and Grayson Allen (14.1 points, 3.2 threes a game). The ball-handling is the problem. Charlotte is turning it over 18.1 times a night, against Cleveland's 13.4, and the Hornets are now without Schroder, their assist leader. Reid has had his own turbulence, too: per AP, the losing streak began after coach Charles Lee benched him for the second half against Detroit for not meeting "team standards."
The injury report decides the number
Per the official NBA report (9:45 a.m. ET), Charlotte has ruled out Miller (right hip strain), Knueppel (left hamstring strain), Schroder (left hamstring strain) and Grant Williams (right hamstring strain). Starting big man Moussa Diabate is questionable with right quadriceps tendinopathy. Miller has carried the Hornets at 20.6 points per game, and Schroder has handed out 4.9 assists. Knueppel reinjured his hamstring in his first game of the season, at Brooklyn on Wednesday. If Diabate (9.1 rebounds) sits too, Charlotte is very thin up front.
Cleveland has its own question in the middle. Jarrett Allen is questionable with a right knee contusion after missing the last two games; he's averaging 13.2 points and 7.8 rebounds. Sam Merrill, Jaylon Tyson and Nae'Qwan Tomlin are out.
How the line has moved
The spread opened at Cleveland -9.5 and sits at -8.5 to -9.5 now. Meanwhile the Cavs moneyline has gone from -309 at the open to -333 to -370. The total has dropped three points, from 217.5 to 214.5–215.5, which fits a Charlotte offense missing its top scorer.
Prediction: no edge
No edge. Cleveland should win this game, but there's no price worth taking:
- The price. Our model puts Cleveland at roughly 73%. Even the best moneyline available (-333) needs 76.9% to break even, and -370 needs 78.7%.
- The case for Cleveland is already priced in. A 96.3-point offense shooting 28.8% from three, without its leading scorer, explains why the Cavs are 9-point road favorites.
- The case against laying it. Cleveland is 1-3 on the road and has lost three of five. Allen's status is open, and this is the Cavs' third game in four days.
- The Charlotte side is no bargain either. Taking the points means trusting an offense that has topped 105 points only three times in 10 games and hasn't done it during the six-game skid.
Swing factor: Allen and Diabate. If Allen plays and Diabate doesn't, Cleveland's rebounding edge grows fast.
Total: Charlotte's games average 206.5 combined points and Cleveland's 231.1. The 214.5–215.5 number sits between the two, so we're passing on the total too.
