Analysis
Memphis Grizzlies vs Toronto Raptors Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov. 9, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model has Toronto around 61% at low confidence, about what -147 to -161 already implies.
- Memphis makes 37.8% of 40.0 threes a game; Toronto makes 31.5% and allows 35.4%.
- Scottie Barnes (23.5 ppg) and Immanuel Quickley (17.4 ppg) are questionable for Toronto; Kawhi Leonard is out.
- Memphis started 6-0 but has lost three straight, with 18 turnovers in Friday's 128-97 loss to Oklahoma City.
The Memphis Grizzlies (6-3) visit the Toronto Raptors (5-4) on Monday, Nov. 9 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Scotiabank Arena (DAZN in the Grizzlies' market). Toronto is a 2.5- to 3.5-point favorite and -147 to -161 on the moneyline, with the total at 228.5. Memphis opened 6-0 and has since lost three straight, and Toronto could be without Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley again. Our model prefers Toronto, but only at low confidence and close to the market price: no edge.
How these teams got here
Memphis opened with six straight wins, all against Utah, Golden State, Sacramento and Portland, and it is still 4-0 on the road. The last week has been rougher: a 135-134 overtime loss to New Orleans, then a 107-103 home loss to Indiana decided by a corner three in the closing seconds, then a 128-97 beating by Oklahoma City on Friday in an NBA Cup game. Per AP, Memphis entered that game leading the NBA in 3-point percentage. It then shot 22% from deep.
Toronto started 3-1 and then lost three of four, including a 128-109 loss at Denver in which the Nuggets won the third quarter 41-15. Friday's 121-107 win at Milwaukee came without Kawhi Leonard, Barnes or Quickley. Alijah Martin scored a career-high 27 and Jamal Shead handed out 16 assists.
Both teams last played Friday, so neither is on a back-to-back. The scoring profiles are nearly identical: Memphis scores 117.9 and allows 111.8 per game, while Toronto scores 118.2 and allows 112.8.
The 3-point line is the matchup
This is where the teams part ways. Memphis takes 40.0 threes a game and makes 37.8%; Toronto takes 34.9 and makes 31.5%. On defense, Memphis holds opponents to 32.8% from deep while Toronto allows 35.4%. That's roughly four more made threes a night for Memphis on paper.
Ty Jerome runs the Memphis offense at 26.6 points and 5.2 assists per game. Rookie Cameron Boozer adds 15.6 points, 10.0 rebounds and 5.2 assists, and Cedric Coward chips in 13.8 points and 8.8 boards. With Zach Edey (8.2 points, 7.9 rebounds in 20.6 minutes) inside, Memphis wins the glass by a wide margin: 48.8 rebounds per game to Toronto's 42.2.
Toronto answers with ball movement (28.7 assists per game to Memphis' 26.4) and ball security (14.0 turnovers to 15.8). RJ Barrett has scored 21.6 a night and has carried the offense with Barnes and Quickley out. Turnovers are Memphis' soft spot: Indiana turned a dozen first-half giveaways into 16 points, and Oklahoma City scored 30 points off 18 Memphis turnovers.
Barnes and Quickley are the swing
Toronto lists Barnes (left groin strain) and Quickley (right hamstring) as questionable, and both missed Friday's win. They matter: Barnes is averaging 23.5 points, 7.6 rebounds and 5.1 assists, and Quickley 17.4 points and 5.8 assists. Leonard (left knee) remains out after playing only two games, and Nate Bittle is out with a fracture.
Memphis is thinner up front without Isaiah Stewart (right knee bone bruise), who has scored 11.9 points in 18.3 minutes a game. Scotty Pippen Jr. (lumbar disc herniation) and Richie Saunders (knee surgery) are also out.
If Barnes and Quickley both sit, Toronto laying 2.5 to 3.5 looks rich. If both play, the Raptors' price makes more sense. That uncertainty is a big reason we're not forcing a side.
How the line has moved
The money has moved toward Toronto. The Raptors opened around -139 on the moneyline and now sit between -147 and -161, while Memphis has gone from +117 at open to +124 to +131. The spread has stayed in the 2.5 to 3.5 range, and the total sits at 228.5 at most books.
Prediction: no edge
Our model gives Toronto around a 61% chance, but at low confidence, and -147 to -161 already implies 59.5% to 61.7%. ESPN Analytics has it close to a coin flip. No edge.
- Memphis' shooting gap (37.8% vs 31.5% from three) and rebounding edge (+6.6 per game) favor the Grizzlies.
- Toronto's home floor, ball security and the market move favor the Raptors.
- Barnes' status alone could swing a 2.5- to 3.5-point game.
The risk: Memphis turns it over 15.8 times a game, and that's how Indiana and Oklahoma City beat it. On the total, Memphis games have averaged 229.7 points and Toronto games 231.0, right on top of 228.5, so there's nothing to chase there either.
