Analysis
San Antonio Spurs vs Houston Rockets Prediction, Picks & Odds (Friday, Oct 23 in Austin)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model makes the Spurs 65% winners at low confidence, and the -200 to -210 moneyline already prices them about the same.
- Houston opened with a 128-110 rout of Dallas, shooting 53% with 30 points apiece from Kevin Durant and Jabari Smith Jr.
- Victor Wembanyama shot 1-of-13 in a 116-104 opening loss to OKC, and De'Aaron Fox (right wrist) is questionable.
- The spread has slid from Spurs -6.5 at the open to -5 to -5.5.
The Houston Rockets (1-0) visit the San Antonio Spurs (0-1) on Friday at 9:30 p.m. ET at Moody Center in Austin, streaming on Prime Video. San Antonio is a 5- to 5.5-point favorite after opening near 6.5. Houston looked like a wrecking ball in its opener while Victor Wembanyama shot 1-of-13 in his, and that's the tension here. The model sides with the Spurs, but the price already does too: no edge.
Two openers, two very different nights
Houston needed one quarter to bury Dallas on Wednesday. The Rockets won the second quarter 38-12, led 70-38 at halftime and cruised home 128-110. Kevin Durant and Jabari Smith Jr. each scored 30, and Durant became the oldest player in league history to drop 30 in a season opener. Alperen Sengun added 23 points and 10 rebounds. Fred VanVleet, back from the torn ACL that wiped out his last season, handed out 11 assists. Houston shot 53% with 32 assists, and did it with Tari Eason ejected about three minutes in for a flagrant 2.
San Antonio's opener went the other way. Oklahoma City led by 21 at halftime and won 116-104 in San Antonio. The Spurs clawed within seven twice in the second half, the last time on a Stephon Castle three with 4:18 left, but never closer. Castle finished with 24 points and five threes, Dylan Harper added 18 and 7 rebounds, and De'Aaron Fox had 14 points, 7 rebounds and 7 assists in 32 minutes. The team shot 39.1% and went 10-of-37 from deep.
One game is one game. This Spurs group went 62-20 last season and 32-8 at home, per AP. Houston went 52-30 and 22-19 on the road. Neither side gets a rest edge, either: San Antonio plays at Dallas on Saturday and Houston plays at Atlanta, so both are on the front end of a back-to-back.
Wembanyama vs Houston's size
Wembanyama's opener was the worst shooting night of his career. He missed his first 12 shots, finished 1-of-13, and scraped together 12 points and 13 rebounds, mostly from a 10-of-12 night at the line. Afterward he said he had been overthinking. OKC's twin-big look with Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein walled off the paint, and Houston can show him a similar picture with Sengun and Smith Jr.
The difference is depth behind them. Steven Adams sat out the opener with a calf issue and is questionable again. If he can't go, Clint Capela is expected to soak up the backup center minutes, per CBS Sports. San Antonio still blocked 11 shots against OKC, and that rim protection is the Spurs' best counter to a Rockets offense that piled up 128 points.
On the perimeter, Castle and Harper are the matchup to watch against VanVleet in his second game back from the knee injury, and against Reed Sheppard if his knee allows.
Fox's wrist and a thinner Spurs rotation
San Antonio's injury list is the bigger variable. Fox is questionable with a right wrist sprain, and Keldon Johnson is questionable with a mouth laceration. Tobias Harris is out with a left calf strain, and Jayden Quaintance remains out after knee surgery. With Dallas waiting on Saturday, there's a real chance the Spurs take it easy with Fox. If he sits, more of the creation falls to Castle and Harper, who handled it well enough in the second half against OKC but not against a full-strength defense for 48 minutes.
Houston's list is shorter. Adams and Sheppard (left knee contusion) are both questionable, and the AP preview listed Adams as out.
How the line has moved
The Spurs opened around -6.5 with a moneyline near -225. After Houston's rout and Wembanyama's dud, the spread has come down to -5 to -5.5 and the moneyline to -200 to -210. That's the market reacting to one night of evidence. The total opened at 224.5 and sits at 224.5 to 225.5, so nobody has moved it much.
Prediction: no edge
The model likes San Antonio to win, at 65% with low confidence. That isn't enough to bet:
- The market agrees. At -200 to -210, the licensed moneyline implies about 64-65% once the vig is stripped. A 65% model number has nothing to grab.
- The availability picture is unsettled. Fox and Johnson are questionable on the front end of a back-to-back, and losing Fox would change San Antonio's half-court offense.
- The openers are tiny samples. Houston won't shoot 53% every night, and Wembanyama won't shoot 1-of-13 again soon. Both regress, and the line already moved a point off the open.
- Houston's size travels. The Rockets have the bigs to make Wembanyama work again, especially if Adams plays.
The swing factor is Fox. If he's in, San Antonio's -5.5 looks fair. If he's out, Houston +5.5 gets interesting. At 224.5 to 225.5, the total sits between the openers' combined scores (238 in Houston's game, 220 in San Antonio's), so we're passing on that too.
