Analysis
Milwaukee Bucks vs Chicago Bulls Prediction, Picks & Odds (Home Opener, Oct. 23)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model leans Milwaukee at only 55% with low confidence, and the market already has the Bucks around -104 to -118.
- Chicago shot 4-of-36 from three and committed 27 turnovers in a 135-92 opener loss at Toronto.
- Milwaukee fouled 32 times in a 128-116 loss at Washington; the Wizards went 32-of-41 at the line.
- Nic Claxton (hamstring) is out for the Bulls; the Bucks have no injuries listed.
The Milwaukee Bucks (0-1) open Fiserv Forum against the Chicago Bulls (0-1) on Friday at 4 p.m. ET (3 p.m. local), on MY24, Bucks+ and CHSN. Licensed books have this as a coin flip: Milwaukee -104 to -118 on the moneyline, with the total at 237.5 to 240.5. The hook: Chicago just shot 4-of-36 from three in a 43-point loss, and the Bucks gave up 32 made free throws in theirs. Our call: no edge.
How these teams got here
Both teams lost Wednesday on the road, but not in the same way.
Milwaukee fell 128-116 in Washington. The offense was fine: 45% from the field, 15-of-41 from three and 28 assists. Tyler Herro had 24 points and 9 assists (on 9-of-21 shooting), Jaime Jaquez Jr. added 22 on 8-of-12 and the bench chipped in with 15 from Kasparas Jakucionis and 12 from Brayden Burries. The problem was the whistle: the Bucks committed 32 fouls, and the Wizards went 32-of-41 at the line while Anthony Davis put up 34 and 12.
Chicago's night in Toronto was a collapse, 135-92. The Bulls shot 32% from the field and 4-of-36 (11%) from three, and turned it over 27 times against 15 Raptors steals. Josh Giddey finished with 2 points on 1-of-10 and five turnovers. Caleb Wilson scored 16 but needed 21 shots and gave it away nine times.
The schedule is identical: both teams play again Saturday (Milwaukee at Philadelphia, Chicago at home to Washington), so neither side gets a rest edge. The Bucks moved this tip up to the afternoon so the home opener doesn't clash with the Brewers hosting World Series Game 1 that evening.
Herro and Turner vs a Bulls frontcourt without Claxton
The decisive matchup is Milwaukee's pick-and-roll against a Chicago front line missing Nic Claxton (hamstring, out). Jalen Smith started in his place in Toronto and was one of the few bright spots (15 points, 8 rebounds), but Smith and Zach Collins don't offer Claxton's rim protection.
That sets up Herro, who took 21 shots and ran the offense to the tune of nine assists in the opener, and Myles Turner, who hit 2-of-5 from three and can drag a drop big out to the arc. If Chicago switches, Herro gets the mismatch; if it drops, Turner pops.
Chicago's counter is the glass. The Bulls pulled down 21 offensive rebounds in a game in which they hardly made a shot, and last season they ranked 9th in rebounds (45.0 per game) while Milwaukee ranked 28th (40.7). Matas Buzelis also lived at the line, going 13-of-16 at the stripe. Against a Bucks team that just fouled 32 times, that is a real path to points.
Giddey's wrist and Chicago's ball security
Giddey is listed as probable with a wrist issue, and guards Jordan Hawkins and Dailyn Swain are questionable with illness. Milwaukee has nobody on its report.
The Giddey status matters more than the box score suggests. He is the Bulls' primary initiator, and Chicago's 27 turnovers were the real story of the opener. If his wrist limits him, more creation falls on Wilson and Norman Powell (15 points on Wednesday), and the turnover risk stays high. If he's close to normal, a team that was this bad in one game is likely to look much better in the next.
Prediction: no edge
The model makes Milwaukee a 55% favorite with low confidence, and the market is right there with it. Reasons the Bucks have the higher floor:
- Ball security: 16 turnovers to Chicago's 27 in the openers.
- Shooting: 15 made threes to Chicago's 4.
- Rim protection: Claxton is out for Chicago; Milwaukee is healthy.
Reasons not to lay it:
- Regression: 4-of-36 from three is about as bad as it gets, and Chicago's shooting should bounce back.
- The glass: 21 offensive boards and last season's rebounding gap (9th vs 28th) favor the Bulls.
- Price: the spread sits between Milwaukee -1.5 and Chicago -1.5 depending on the book. With a low-confidence 55% lean, there's no number to beat.
The swing factor is the foul line: if the Bucks foul like they did in Washington, the Bulls can steal this without shooting well.
On the total, the 237.5 to 240.5 range is fair: Milwaukee's opener went to 244 combined points and Chicago's to 227. No edge on the side or the total.
