Analysis
Knicks vs Magic Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct. 25, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model gives the Knicks 66% at low confidence, below the 74% to 76% implied by their -286 to -312 licensed moneyline.
- Paolo Banchero (right ankle sprain) is out for Orlando; he scored 35 on 10-of-12 shooting in the opener.
- Orlando allows 123.5 points per game, but New York scores only 101.5 and has 30 turnovers in two games.
- Knicks -7.5 after sitting at -8 to -8.5 overnight; total 224.5 after opening at 225.5.
Two 0-2 teams meet Sunday at 7:00 PM ET at Madison Square Garden (MSG in New York; WFTV 9 and MagicTV 27 in Orlando) when the New York Knicks host an Orlando Magic team that just lost Paolo Banchero to a right ankle sprain. Licensed books have New York -7.5 and -286 to -312 on the moneyline. The market prices the Knicks near 75%; our model says 66%. That gap points the wrong way for a bet: no edge.
Two 0-2 starts, two different problems
The Knicks' problem has been shotmaking and ball security. They dropped the opener 106-100 to Philadelphia at the Garden after leading 58-54 at halftime, shooting 37% while Jalen Brunson needed 19 shots for 21 points. Friday at Boston they shot better (45%, 16-of-40 from three) and still lost 107-103 as Jayson Tatum poured in 36. New York has 30 turnovers in two games, per the CBS Sports preview, and is scoring just 101.5 points per game.
Orlando's problem is the other end. The Magic gave up 132 to Atlanta in the opener and 115 to Minnesota on Friday: 123.5 points allowed per game, 17 more than the Knicks have allowed. Friday's 115-93 home loss was ugly, with Orlando going 8-of-39 from three and getting beaten 61-43 on the glass.
Both teams played Friday, so neither side has a rest edge.
Knicks size vs. a Magic team without its engine
Karl-Anthony Towns has been New York's steadiest piece: 19 points and 12 rebounds against Philadelphia, then 22 on 9-of-13 shooting at Boston. OG Anunoby filled the box score in Boston with 20 points, 10 rebounds and 8 assists, and Deuce McBride added 20. The Knicks are averaging 48.5 rebounds to Orlando's 41.0, and size is where this matchup tilts hardest.
Orlando's best version runs through Banchero. In the opener he went 10-of-12 for 35 points and 10 assists. Without him, the creation falls on Franz Wagner (22 and 18 points in the two games), Wendell Carter Jr. (22 and 20) and Jalen Suggs. That group has to manufacture offense against a Knicks defense that has held both opponents to 107 or fewer.
Banchero's ankle changes the math
Banchero sat the fourth quarter Friday with right ankle soreness. The Magic called it a low-grade sprain and he isn't expected to make the trip, per the CBS Sports preview; CBS's injury report lists him out until at least Nov. 22. Jonathan Isaac (knee), Noah Penda (hamstring) and Izaiyah Nelson (ankle) are also out, and Anthony Black (ankle) is questionable. That's a lot of Orlando's forward depth in street clothes against a team that wins with length and rebounding.
New York's only listed concern is Jose Alvarado, a game-time decision with an ankle issue after playing 11 minutes Friday. He's a rotation guard, not a swing piece.
How the line has moved
Licensed books sat at New York -8 to -8.5 overnight, one dipped to -6.5 this morning, and the market has settled at -7.5 across the board. The total opened at 225.5, slid to 223.5 and is back at 224.5. Banchero's status was public by Saturday, so the injury is already in the number; there's no stale line to chase.
Prediction: no edge, Knicks the likelier winner
Our model makes the Knicks 66% winners at low confidence. The licensed moneylines imply 74% to 76%. That's a pass:
- The price is too high. At -286 or shorter, New York needs to win about three in four; the model doesn't get there, and ESPN Analytics (70.1% New York) doesn't either.
- Orlando's defense says Knicks, at 123.5 points allowed per game.
- New York's offense says caution. At 101.5 points per game and 30 turnovers in two games, the Knicks haven't shown they can win by 8.
- The injury is priced. The spread is within a point of where it sat overnight.
The swing factor is Orlando's three-point shooting. At 8-of-39, the Magic can't keep pace; a normal night from deep keeps them inside the number.
On the total, Knicks games have landed at 206 and 210, Orlando's at 257 and 208. Losing Banchero tilts us slightly toward the under at 224.5, but not enough to play it.
