Analysis
Brooklyn Nets vs Indiana Pacers Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct. 25, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model gives Indiana 68%, below the 72–74% implied by -263 to -286 at licensed books.
- Brooklyn is on the second night of a back-to-back after a 125-121 loss in Cleveland; Indiana had Saturday off.
- Indiana opened -5.5 and is now -6.5 to -7.5, so the rest edge is already in the price.
- Indiana allows 120.5 points per game, and Nesmith (hamstring) is a game-time decision.
The Indiana Pacers (1-1) visit the Brooklyn Nets (0-2) at Barclays Center on Sunday at 6:00 PM ET (DAZN, NBA League Pass). Indiana is laying 6.5 to 7.5 points at licensed books, up from 5.5 at the open, and Brooklyn is on the second night of a back-to-back after a 125-121 loss in Cleveland. Our model gives Indiana a 68% chance to win, which is less than the price implies. No edge.
How these teams got here
Brooklyn has lost both of its games, but neither was a blowout. The Nets dropped the home opener to Charlotte 110-103 on Wednesday, then went to Cleveland on Saturday and stayed close all night before losing 125-121. Through two games they're scoring 112.0 points per game and allowing 117.5.
The loss in Cleveland showed the offense the Nets want to run: 20-of-49 from three (41%). Michael Porter Jr. had 28 points, 9 rebounds and 4 steals. Egor Demin added 22 on 5-of-10 shooting from deep, and Julius Randle scored 23.
Indiana's start has been just as uneven. The Pacers won 123-120 in New Orleans on Wednesday, then lost 121-105 at home to Dallas on Friday. They're scoring 114.0 and allowing 120.5, the worse defensive number of the two teams. Indiana had Saturday off, while Brooklyn played in Cleveland on Saturday night.
Siakam and Haliburton against a thin Brooklyn rotation
Indiana's offense runs through two players. Pascal Siakam is averaging 26.5 points and Tyrese Haliburton 20.5 points with 9.5 assists. Andrew Nembhard adds 17.0 points and 7.0 assists, and Ivica Zubac is pulling down 13.0 rebounds a night. The Pacers are averaging 28.0 assists as a team, and against a tired defense that ball movement is their clearest edge.
Brooklyn's answer is volume. Randle scored 33 in the opener and 23 in Cleveland (28.0 a game), and Porter has 26 and 28 (27.0). The Nets can match Indiana basket for basket when the threes fall, as they did Saturday. The question is legs: Randle played 35 minutes and Porter 33 in Cleveland less than 24 hours before this tip.
Who's missing
Brooklyn has ruled out guard Mikel Brown Jr. (rest), who played 20 minutes off the bench Saturday, and forward Tyler Bilodeau (shoulder). Losing Brown takes a second-unit ball handler out of the rotation, which leaves more of the playmaking to Demin and Randle.
Indiana is thinner. T.J. McConnell (hamstring) is out, and so are Ben Sheppard (knee) and Johnny Furphy (knee). Aaron Nesmith (hamstring) is a game-time decision. He's a starting-caliber wing, and without him Indiana has fewer bodies to throw at two Brooklyn scorers averaging 27-plus.
How the line has moved
Indiana opened at -5.5 and is now -6.5 to -7.5 across licensed books, with the moneyline at -263 to -286. That's the market pricing in Brooklyn's back-to-back. The total has barely moved, sitting at 231.5 to 232.5.
Prediction: no edge on Nets vs Pacers
No edge. Indiana is the better team in a better spot, but the price already says so.
- The model is below the market. It gives Indiana 68%, while -263 to -286 implies roughly 72% to 74% before the vig is removed. ESPN Analytics is lower still, at 63.9%.
- The rest edge is priced in. Up to two points of movement since the open is the market charging for Brooklyn's back-to-back.
- Indiana's defense hasn't earned a 7-point road number. The Pacers are allowing 120.5 a game, and Brooklyn is scoring 112.0 even at 0-2.
- Indiana's guard depth is short. McConnell, Sheppard and Furphy are out, and Nesmith is a game-time decision.
Swing factor: Nesmith. If he plays, Indiana has someone to throw at Porter or Randle. If he sits, the cover gets harder.
On the total: both defenses are allowing 117.5 or more, but Brooklyn's tired legs on the second night of a back-to-back cut the other way. We don't have a strong read on 231.5 to 232.5.
