Analysis
Knicks vs Bucks Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov. 10, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the Knicks are -1111 to -1429 on the moneyline and 15.5-point favorites, and that price leaves nothing to take on either side.
- Milwaukee has lost six straight by an average of 18.3 points and allows 121.6 points per game.
- New York has won five of six, but only one of its five wins came by more than 15 points.
- Tyler Herro (21.4 PPG) and Josh Hart are both questionable on the official injury report.
The New York Knicks (5-4) host the Milwaukee Bucks (1-9) at 7:30 p.m. ET Tuesday at Madison Square Garden, on MSG and DAZN in New York and My24 and Bucks+ in Milwaukee. New York is a 15.5-point favorite, the total sits at 219.5 to 220.5 and the moneyline runs -1111 to -1429. The Knicks have won five of six, and the Bucks have lost six straight by 18.3 points a game. The price has already caught up to that gap. Our call: no edge.
How these teams got here
New York opened with three straight losses, to Philadelphia, Boston and Orlando. Since then the Knicks are 5-1, and the defense is the reason: in their last three wins (Brooklyn, Chicago, Cleveland) they allowed 97.3 points a game. Saturday's 109-97 win at Cleveland was the latest. For the season they score 109.9 and allow 104.2, a +5.7 margin, and they've won three straight at home.
Milwaukee's lone win came Oct. 26, 110-102 over Indiana. Six straight losses followed, including a 132-100 home loss to Houston, a 136-111 home loss to Cleveland and Sunday's 117-97 home loss to Boston. The Bucks are 0-4 on the road, allow 121.6 points a game and sit at -13.2 in scoring margin.
Rest is close to even. New York last played Saturday and Milwaukee on Sunday, and both teams play again Wednesday: the Knicks host Cleveland and the Bucks host the Lakers.
Brunson and Towns against a defense that can't get stops
Jalen Brunson leads New York with 26.2 points and 5.6 assists in 33.9 minutes. Karl-Anthony Towns adds 20.9 points and 13.6 rebounds, and OG Anunoby chips in 16.4 points. That frontcourt shows up on the glass: the Knicks out-rebound opponents 48.3 to 40.7 a game, while Milwaukee loses that battle 47.9 to 46.5.
The Bucks' bigger problem is at the other end. Opponents shoot 46.4% from the field against them, and Milwaukee turns it over 16.8 times a game while forcing only 12.7. Tyler Herro (21.4 points) and Jaime Jaquez Jr. (15.2) carry the scoring, with Kyle Kuzma at 11.6. Myles Turner is averaging 7.1 points in 27.1 minutes.
New York's defense holds opponents to 43.3% shooting and 33.3% from three. Milwaukee shoots 33.5% from deep and hasn't topped 111 points in any of its last six games, which is a hard way to chase a team that scores close to 110 a night.
Herro and Hart: the two questionable tags
The official 9 a.m. injury report lists Herro as questionable with a right contusion. He has played all 10 games and is Milwaukee's only scorer above 20 a night, so his status is the biggest swing in this game.
Josh Hart is also questionable (right ankle soreness). He hasn't played since Nov. 2, and New York won both games without him, 135-105 over Chicago and 109-97 at Cleveland. Hart averages 8.6 points, 7.3 rebounds and 3.9 assists, so his absence shows up more in rebounding and playmaking than in scoring.
Prediction: no edge
No edge. The Knicks are the better team by every number here, but the market has already priced that in:
- The moneyline is too short. -1111 to -1429 implies a 91.7% to 93.5% win chance. ESPN's BPI has New York at 90.7%, so there's nothing left to take.
- Our model doesn't fit the results. Its projection for this game runs against both the market and the season numbers above, so we won't headline it.
- 15.5 is right where both teams' margins meet. Only one of New York's five wins came by more than 15 (135-105 over Chicago), while three of Milwaukee's nine losses did.
- Milwaukee's floor is low. Six straight losses by 18.3 a game and 121.6 points allowed keep the Bucks from being a value play at plus money.
The swing factor is Herro. If he sits, Milwaukee loses its top scorer and the number could climb.
On the total, Knicks games have averaged 214.1 combined points and Bucks games 230.0. The 219.5 to 220.5 number sits between the two, so we're passing there too.
