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Analysis
Celtics vs 76ers Prediction, Picks & Odds (NBA on NBC, Nov. 10)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model has Celtics vs 76ers at 50/50 with very low confidence, and the market makes Boston only a slight favorite at about 52%.
- Boston makes 15.6 threes a game to Philadelphia's 11.5, about a 12-point gap from deep.
- The 76ers have had two days of rest; the Celtics play at Toronto on Wednesday, so tonight is the first night of a back-to-back.
- Philadelphia is without three bigs (Bona, Barlow, Hukporti), but Embiid and LeBron James are off the injury report.
The Boston Celtics (8-2) visit the Philadelphia 76ers (9-2) on Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET at Xfinity Mobile Arena, live on NBC and Peacock. Boston is a 0.5- to 1.5-point road favorite with the total at 217.5 to 218.5. It is also Jaylen Brown's first regular-season game against the team that traded him. The East's top two teams price out as a near coin flip, and our call is no edge on this one.
How these teams got here
Philadelphia is 9-2, its best 11-game start since 2000-01, per the AP. The Sixers are 4-1 at home and outscore opponents 111.0 to 107.9 per game. Their losses came at home to Detroit (106-93) and at Cleveland (119-95) last Friday. They bounced back Sunday afternoon with a 127-121 win in Chicago: Brown scored 29, Tyrese Maxey 27 and LeBron James 22.
Boston's numbers are louder. The Celtics have won three straight and outscore opponents 115.0 to 104.3, a +10.7 margin per game. They beat Charlotte 119-80 on Friday and Milwaukee 117-97 on Sunday night. Their two losses both came on the road, at Detroit on opening night and 109-93 at Houston. That leaves them 3-2 away from home.
The schedule tilts toward Philadelphia. The Sixers have had two days off since Sunday afternoon. Boston played Sunday night, this is the third stop of a four-game trip, and the Celtics are at Toronto on Wednesday, so tonight is the first night of a back-to-back.
Boston's 3-point volume vs Philadelphia's star power
The biggest statistical gap is from deep. Boston makes 15.6 threes per game on 41.5 attempts (37.6%). Philadelphia makes 11.5 on 33.9 (34.0%). That is roughly 12 points a night before anything else happens. The Celtics also grab 14.1 offensive rebounds per game to Philadelphia's 10.5.
Philadelphia answers with ball security and a deep top end. The Sixers turn it over 12.3 times a game to Boston's 14.3, and they get to the line a bit more (26.0 free throws a game to 25.2). Maxey leads them at 26.9 points in 36.5 minutes. Brown adds 22.3, Joel Embiid 17.9 points and 9.7 rebounds, and James 15.6 points, 7.1 rebounds and 6.7 assists.
Boston runs through Jayson Tatum (27.1 points, 7.8 assists) and Paul George (20.4 points). George came over from Philadelphia in the July trade that sent Brown south. Derrick White (12.9) and Payton Pritchard (12.8) give the Celtics a third and fourth scorer.
The frontcourt depth problem
Philadelphia's 8:00 AM injury report lists three bigs as out: Adem Bona (cervical spine sprain), Dominick Barlow (low back stress reaction) and Ariel Hukporti (Achilles). Bona had been the backup center, at 14.2 minutes and 3.9 rebounds a night. That leaves the minutes behind Embiid thin against a Boston rotation of Neemias Queta (9.5 points, 6.2 rebounds), Mitchell Robinson and Luka Garza. It also fits the offensive-rebounding gap above.
Embiid and James have each missed two of Philadelphia's 11 games. Both played Sunday, and neither appears on the report. Boston lists only two-way and G League players. The Celtics had not filed Wednesday's Toronto report as of 8:00 AM, so watch for minutes management late if the game gets lopsided.
How the line has moved
Philadelphia was a 1.5-point favorite in the first lines posted. Boston is now laid at 0.5 to 1.5, with the Celtics moneyline at -105 to -116 and the Sixers at -102 to -115. The total has climbed from 214.5 to 215.5 at the open to 217.5 to 218.5. The market has moved toward the Celtics and toward points, but only by a basket and a half.
Prediction: no edge
No edge. Our model has this one at 50/50 with very low confidence. The market makes Boston a slight favorite, about 52% once the vig is removed. With no daylight between the two numbers, we're not forcing a side.
- Boston's case: a +10.7 scoring margin against Philadelphia's +3.1, and a 4.1-per-game edge in made threes.
- Philadelphia's case: two days of rest against a team starting a back-to-back, a 4-1 home record and fewer turnovers.
- Frontcourt: the Sixers' three missing bigs are a real hole on the glass, but Embiid and James are both available.
- The swing factor: Boston's 3-point volume. A hot night from deep swings this game fast; a cold one hands it to Philadelphia's stars and their trips to the line.
On the total, 217.5 to 218.5 sits right on top of both teams' season scoring. Boston's games average 219.3 combined points and Philadelphia's 218.9, so there's no play there either.
