Analysis
Knicks vs Celtics Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct 23, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model makes Boston a 51% favorite at very low confidence, short of the 57–60% the licensed moneylines imply.
- Boston is -2.5 at most licensed books after sitting at -1.5 earlier in the week; the total has dipped from 224.5 to 222.5–223.5.
- Paul George scored 38 in his Celtics debut, while Jayson Tatum missed 17 of 23 shots in the same 121-113 loss at Detroit.
- The Knicks shot 37% from the field and 33.3% from three in a 106-100 opening loss to Philadelphia.
The New York Knicks (0-1) visit the Boston Celtics (0-1) at TD Garden on Friday, Oct. 23, at 7:00 PM ET on Prime Video. Boston is a 2.5-point favorite at most licensed books (one sits at -3), with the moneyline from -132 to -149 and the total at 222.5 to 223.5. Both teams lost on opening night: the defending champs at home, Boston after leading by 22. The model calls it 51-49. Our call: no edge.
Two openers that went sideways
New York's title defense started with a banner, rings and a 106-100 loss to Philadelphia at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday. The Knicks led by 10 at one point, then the 76ers closed the third quarter on an 11-0 run, capped by a Jaylen Brown buzzer-beating 3 for an 83-76 lead. Karl-Anthony Towns got New York back within 96-95 late, and Joel Embiid answered with a 3.
The problem was the offense. New York shot 37% from the field (35 of 94) and 33.3% from three. Jalen Brunson, last season's Finals MVP, scored 21 but needed 19 shots to make six. Towns added 19 points and 12 rebounds.
Boston's opener in Detroit went wrong in a different way. The Celtics led 72-50 early in the third quarter after Paul George hit three 3-pointers in under a minute, were still up six after three quarters, and lost 121-113. Detroit's 39-point fourth quarter (per Sportsbook Review) turned a showcase debut into a loss.
Both teams played Tuesday and had Wednesday and Thursday off, so neither side has a rest edge.
George's arrival vs. a cold Knicks offense
Boston traded Jaylen Brown to Philadelphia for Paul George, and George's first game in green was everything the Celtics hoped for: 38 points, the most ever by a Celtic in a debut, on 21 shots per Sportsbook Review.
The rest of that box score is the worry. Jayson Tatum, back for his first full season since tearing his Achilles in May 2025, had 13 points and 11 assists but missed 17 of 23 shots. Derrick White and Payton Pritchard scored 17 apiece. Boston also allowed 40 three-point attempts to the Pistons, per Sportsbook Review, an invitation New York has to accept better than it did on Tuesday.
That's the matchup in one line: Boston's perimeter defense against a Knicks offense that was cold from everywhere. OG Anunoby went 1-for-9 from three in the opener (per Sportsbook Review) after shooting 38.6% from deep last season. If New York's shooters drift back toward their norms, a 2.5-point number gets thin fast.
Who's available
Boston is without guard Devin Carter, who has mononucleosis and no set timetable; ESPN lists an estimated Nov. 8 return. He didn't play Tuesday either, so the Celtics' opening-night rotation is the one to expect.
New York has no one on ESPN's injury list as of Friday morning. Brunson, Towns and Anunoby all played in the opener, so the group that lost to Philadelphia gets a second look. The league's official report updates through the afternoon, so check it before tip.
How the line has moved
Boston was a 1.5-point favorite at several licensed books earlier in the week and is now -2.5 nearly everywhere, with one book at -3. The total went the other way, from 224.5–225.5 midweek to 222.5–223.5 now.
The read: the market is crediting Boston for George's debut and docking New York for its cold shooting. Both are one-game samples.
Prediction: no edge
No edge. The model makes Boston a 51% favorite, a coin flip, at very low confidence. The licensed moneylines price the Celtics at roughly 57% to 60%. We won't manufacture a side the model doesn't back.
- Boston's case: home floor, George's 38-point debut, and a line that has moved its way from -1.5 to -2.5.
- New York's case: a 37% shooting night that is unlikely to repeat, and Anunoby's 1-for-9 from three against his 38.6% last season.
- Neither closed: both teams blew leads on Tuesday, New York's 10 and Boston's 22, so neither has shown it can finish yet.
- Swing factor: Tatum's jumper. A 6-for-23 night isn't his norm, and if his touch comes back, Boston's ceiling rises with it.
On the total, the two openers point in opposite directions, 206 points at the Garden and 234 in Detroit, so we pass there too.
