Analysis
Pelicans vs Pacers Prediction, Picks & Odds (NBA Season Opener)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model gives Indiana only 53% at very low confidence, below the roughly 60% the -149 to -154 moneyline implies.
- Indiana is out Aaron Nesmith and T.J. McConnell (both hamstring). New Orleans has no one on the injury report.
- Last season New Orleans had the better scoring margin: -4.5 per game vs Indiana's -8.0.
- The spread moved from Pacers -4.5 to -3.5, and the total dropped from 243.5 to 239.5.
The New Orleans Pelicans (26-56 last season) open at Smoothie King Center against the Indiana Pacers (19-63) on Wednesday, Oct. 21, at 8 p.m. ET on GCSEN, DAZN and NBA League Pass. Indiana is a 3.5-point road favorite at most licensed books, down from 4.5. The hook: Tyrese Haliburton returns, but the Pacers are missing two rotation pieces. Our model sees a coin flip the market doesn't. No edge.
How these teams got here
Both teams are coming off seasons they'd rather forget. Indiana went from the 2025 NBA Finals to 19-63, playing all of last season without Haliburton after his Achilles injury. The Pacers scored 112.4 points per game and allowed 120.4, a -8.0 nightly margin.
New Orleans won 26 games, scoring 115.5 and allowing 120.0 per night. That's a -4.5 margin, better than Indiana's but nothing to brag about. The Pelicans have a new head coach in Jamahl Mosley, and the early signs on defense are real: New Orleans finished 5th in preseason defensive rating, up from 18th a year earlier, but 22nd on offense, per Pelicans On SI.
Rest is a wash. It's opening night for both teams, so nobody is on a back-to-back. The Pelicans head to Utah on Friday, and the Pacers go home to host Dallas the same night.
Haliburton and Zubac vs Zion and the Pelicans' wings
Indiana's case starts with its point guard. Haliburton led the NBA at 10.9 assists per game in 2023-24, and New Orleans ranked 25th in opponent assists per game last season, per SI. If the Pelicans can't keep him out of the paint, their improved preseason defense gets a real stress test right away.
The other new piece is Ivica Zubac, who is expected to start at center next to Pascal Siakam and Andrew Nembhard. That gives Indiana size it didn't have last season, and it lines up directly against Zion Williamson's downhill game and Yves Missi on the glass. Missi averaged 8 rebounds and 1.3 blocks in 18.5 preseason minutes.
For New Orleans, Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones carry the wing load. Murphy shot just 23.8% from three in preseason. If that number bounces back, the Pelicans have the shooting to keep pace with Indiana's tempo. Jeremiah Fears gave them 13.3 points per game on 50% shooting in exhibition play.
Who's missing for Indiana
The injury report tilts toward New Orleans. Aaron Nesmith (hamstring) and T.J. McConnell (hamstring) are both out, and Johnny Furphy (knee) is out until around January. Nesmith is the starting small forward, so Kelly Oubre Jr. is expected to move into the lineup. McConnell's absence takes away the backup point guard who runs the second unit when Haliburton sits.
New Orleans has no one on the injury report. Dejounte Murray missed most of the preseason with a toe issue but is expected to play. Whether he starts or comes off the bench behind Fears is a coaching call to watch.
How the line has moved
The spread has come in a full point, from Pacers -4.5 to -3.5, with one licensed book already at -2.5. The total has dropped harder, from 243.5 to 239.5. Both moves point toward a tighter, lower-scoring game than the opening numbers expected, and the spread move leans toward the home side.
Prediction: No edge on Pelicans vs Pacers
No edge. The model rates this close to a coin flip, with Indiana at 53% and New Orleans at 47%, at very low confidence. The licensed moneyline (Pacers -149 to -154) implies roughly 60% for Indiana, so the model sits below the market on the favorite. Here's why the spot stays a pass:
- Haliburton's return is the biggest unknown. He hasn't played a regular-season game since missing all of last season.
- Indiana is shorthanded. Nesmith and McConnell are out, which thins both the starting five and the bench.
- New Orleans has the edge on paper from last season: a -4.5 scoring margin against Indiana's -8.0.
- The market has already moved toward the Pelicans, from +4.5 to +3.5, so most of that value is gone.
The swing factor is Zubac against Williamson in the paint. If Indiana's new center keeps Zion off the line, the Pacers' playmaking advantage should show late.
On the total, 239.5 is four points below the opener. Both teams allowed 120+ per game last season, but a new Pelicans defensive scheme and an Indiana roster still learning a new center make us wary of the over. We have no play on the total either.
