Analysis
Warriors vs Grizzlies Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct 23, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model gives Golden State 59%, in line with the -150 to -156 moneyline, at low confidence.
- Memphis won the boards 55-38 in its opener; Golden State lost them 43-36 and is without Porzingis.
- Golden State shot 8-of-36 from three in a 127-105 loss to the Lakers; Ty Jerome scored 45 for Memphis.
- Podziemski and Bassey are questionable for Golden State; Coward is doubtful for Memphis.
The Golden State Warriors (0-1) open at Chase Center against the Memphis Grizzlies (1-0) on Friday at 10 p.m. ET on NBC Sports Bay Area. Golden State is laying 3 to 3.5 points with the total at 234.5 to 235.5. The hook: Memphis just pounded the glass for 55 rebounds, and the Warriors' frontcourt is down to its last bodies. Our model makes Golden State a 59% favorite, right where the market sits. No edge.
How these teams got here
Golden State's opener went sideways fast. The Lakers won 127-105 on Wednesday, shooting 57% from the field while the Warriors hit just 8 of 36 threes (22%). Walker Kessler went 12-for-12 for 26 points around the rim, and Los Angeles won the boards 43-36. Stephen Curry scored 23 on 7-of-15 in only 21 minutes, and Draymond Green handed out eight assists, but the bench and the wings never found a shot.
Memphis went the other way the same night, beating Utah 123-103 at home. Ty Jerome erupted for 45 points on 17-of-25 shooting with seven rebounds and six assists, the Grizzlies hit 38% from three and they won the glass 55-38.
Both teams played Wednesday, so rest is even. Memphis makes the trip west; Golden State gets its first home game after a road loss. Neither one-game sample says much, and last season gives a cleaner baseline: Golden State finished 37-45 (114.6 points scored, 115.2 allowed) and Memphis went 25-57 (114.7 scored, 120.7 allowed), per ESPN.
Size against Golden State's thin frontcourt
This is the matchup that decides the night. Memphis starts Zach Edey at center, and he grabbed nine rebounds in 21 minutes against Utah. Cameron Boozer added 11 boards and five assists even on a 2-for-15 shooting night, and GG Jackson chipped in eight rebounds off the bench.
Golden State has little to throw back at that size. Kristaps Porzingis is out, Charles Bassey is questionable with a knee issue and Al Horford went scoreless in 17 minutes in Los Angeles. If the Grizzlies own the offensive glass the way they did Wednesday, the Warriors' shooting has to carry the night.
That's the other half of the coin. Golden State won't shoot 22% from three often with Curry on the floor, and the Warriors forced plenty of mistakes in the opener with 15 steals. Memphis turned it over 13 times against Utah. Golden State needs to turn those into transition threes.
Jerome is the swing piece. A 45-point night is hard to repeat, so expect some regression. But he ran the offense, and the Warriors' perimeter defense gave up 23 to Austin Reaves and 28 to Luka Doncic two nights ago.
The injury report decides the spread
Golden State is already without Jimmy Butler (knee), Moses Moody (knee) and Porzingis. Brandin Podziemski (back) and Bassey are both questionable, per the latest ESPN injury report. Podziemski sat out the opener, and his return would help Golden State's guard depth. Curry tweaked his right ankle in practice last weekend but played in the opener and is not listed for Friday.
Memphis has its own question marks. Cedric Coward is doubtful with a left wrist sprain after starting Wednesday, and Isaiah Stewart is questionable with an ankle injury. Losing Coward pulls a starting wing out of the rotation, though Jerami Grant (15 points off the bench) gives Memphis a capable replacement.
How the line has moved
Not much. Golden State opened at -3.5 and a 235.5 total, and most books still sit there. A few have dipped to -3 and 234.5. The moneyline runs from -150 to -156 on the Warriors and +125 to +132 on the Grizzlies.
Prediction: no edge
No edge. Here's why we pass:
- The model matches the market. Our 59% on Golden State sits just below the 60–61% implied by the moneyline, and the model's confidence is low.
- The rebounding gap cuts against the favorite. Memphis won the boards by 17 on Wednesday; Golden State lost them by 7 without Porzingis and possibly without Bassey again.
- The shooting gap cuts the other way. A 22% night from three is an outlier for a Curry team at home, and Jerome's 45 is an outlier too.
- Three late calls (Podziemski, Bassey, Coward) can move this number a point either way before tip.
The swing factor: Golden State's three-point volume. If the Warriors get back to normal from deep, the size edge won't be enough for Memphis to cover.
On the total: both teams scored about 115 a game last season, and Memphis allowed 120.7. Add the opening-night totals (232 and 226 points) and 234.5–235.5 looks about right. We have no lean.
