Cavaliers vs HawksFinal Score & Recap

The Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) visit the Atlanta Hawks (2-3) on Thursday at 8:00 PM ET at State Farm Arena (NBA TV), and both teams are on the second night of a back-to-back. Atlanta is a 1- to 1.5-point home favorite at most licensed books, with the total at 237.5 to 238.5. The Hawks force turnovers at an elite rate; the Cavs own the glass and the rim. Our model calls it a coin flip: no edge.

How these teams got here

Cleveland dropped its opener 114-106 at Philadelphia, then won three straight at home: 125-121 over Brooklyn, 127-125 in overtime over Minnesota and 121-111 over Washington on Wednesday. Evan Mobley led that last one with 24 points and 12 rebounds. The wins have been tight, though. The Cavs' average margin is +2.0 against a below-average schedule, which leaves their Simple Rating System score at -2.46, per Basketball Reference.

Atlanta is heading the other way. The Hawks opened 2-0 on the road, 132-125 at Orlando and 128-81 at Charlotte, then lost three in a row: 121-114 and 120-110 to Houston, and 129-117 to Miami on Wednesday, when Kingston Flemings scored 23 off the bench. The underlying numbers still like Atlanta better: a +5.0 average margin, an SRS of 7.31 and a net rating of +4.9 per 100 possessions, against Cleveland's +1.9.

The schedule spot is the same for both, with one wrinkle. Each team played at home Wednesday night, but the Cavaliers had to fly to Atlanta afterward, while the Hawks slept in their own beds.

Atlanta's hands vs. Cleveland's size

This game is a clean clash of styles. Atlanta's defense lives on deflections. Opponents are turning it over 20.2 times per game against the Hawks, a 17.0% turnover rate that ranks 2nd in the league. Dyson Daniels is averaging 3.4 steals by himself. Those extra possessions feed an offense that leads the NBA with 32.2 assists per game. Jalen Johnson runs it at 19.6 points, 9.6 rebounds and 9.0 assists, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker matches his 19.6 points while hitting 41.9% from three on 8.6 attempts.

That's a problem for a Cleveland team giving it away 17.3 times per game. Donovan Mitchell (4.3) and James Harden (3.8) account for nearly half of those. Mitchell has been sharp otherwise, at 24.8 points on 50% shooting and 45.8% from deep. Harden, at 37, is shooting 32.7% from the field and 29.0% from three.

Cleveland's answer is size. The Cavs average 47.0 rebounds to Atlanta's 41.4 and lead the league with 7.5 blocks per game, against the Hawks' 3.6. Mobley is at 20.0 points and 10.0 rebounds, and Jarrett Allen adds 13.3 points, 9.0 boards and 2.3 blocks. Atlanta's defensive rebounding rate of 69.0% ranks 26th. Cleveland also lives at the line, with 27.8 free-throw attempts per game to Atlanta's 22.8.

The injury picture

Atlanta is thin up front. Mouhamed Gueye is out after surgery on a fractured left foot, and center Henri Veesaar is done for the season with a torn ACL. That leaves Onyeka Okongwu and Jock Landale to handle Allen and Mobley, which is exactly where the Cavs want to attack.

Cleveland is only missing forward Nae'Qwan Tomlin (back), who hasn't played this season. Harden, Mitchell, Mobley and Allen all played Wednesday.

The catch is timing. As of the league's 7:45 AM ET report, neither team had filed its injury report, which is normal on a back-to-back. A rest day for a 37-year-old Harden, or a minutes cap for anyone, would move this line. Check the final report before tip.

How the line has moved

Cleveland was a 1.5-point favorite at a couple of licensed books overnight. The market has since flipped: Atlanta is now -1 to -1.5 at most books, with one book still dealing the Cavs at -0.5. The total has slipped from 239.5 to 237.5–238.5. The moneyline sits at Hawks -108 to -115, Cavaliers -105 to -110, about as close to even as an NBA game gets.

Prediction: no edge

Our model gives Atlanta a 51% chance to win at its lowest confidence level, and the licensed moneyline prices the Hawks at roughly 50–51% once the vig is removed. There's no gap to bet into, so this is no edge. The factors split down the middle:

1. Turnovers favor Atlanta. The Hawks force 20.2 per game, and the Cavs cough up 17.3.
2. The paint favors Cleveland. The Cavs hold a 5.6-rebound edge per game, double Atlanta's blocks (7.5 to 3.6) and get to the line 5.0 more times per night.
3. The profile favors Atlanta; the form favors Cleveland. The Hawks have the better net rating (+4.9 vs +1.9), but they've lost three straight while the Cavs have won three straight.
4. Fatigue cuts both ways. Both teams are on a back-to-back, and only Cleveland traveled.

The swing factor is the late injury report. Any rest decision on either side moves this off a pick'em.

On the total, Cleveland's games are averaging 237.5 combined points and Atlanta's 235.4, right where the market has it at 237.5 to 238.5. There's no total play either.