Analysis
Bulls vs Raptors Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct 21 Season Opener)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model makes Toronto a 76% winner, but the licensed moneylines (-357 to -435) already imply 78% to 81%.
- Raptors -9.5 at every licensed book, up from -8.5 at the open; the total sits at 236.5 to 237.
- Chicago allowed 121.5 points per game last season (22nd-ranked defense) and opens without Nic Claxton (hamstring).
- Kawhi Leonard averaged a career-high 27.9 points on 62.9% true shooting last season and makes his second Toronto debut.
The Chicago Bulls (31-51 last season) open 2026-27 at the Toronto Raptors (46-36) on Wednesday, Oct. 21 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Scotiabank Arena, on CHSN in Chicago and Sportsnet in Canada. Toronto is a 9.5-point favorite at every licensed book, with the total at 236.5 to 237. Kawhi Leonard's second Toronto debut meets a Bulls rebuild under first-year coach Tiago Splitter. Our model makes Toronto a 76% winner, short of the 78% to 81% the moneyline implies: no edge.
How these teams got here
Toronto's 2025-26 was a breakout. The Raptors jumped 16 wins, from 30 to 46, finished fifth in the East and made their first playoff trip since 2022 before Cleveland bounced them in seven games. They scored 114.6 points per game, allowed 111.8, and led the NBA with 18.9 fast-break points a night.
Then they went all in. Toronto sent Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick and a package of future picks to the Clippers for Leonard, a deal that closed in late September.
Chicago went the other way. The Bulls finished 31-51, their worst record since 2020, and gave up 121.5 points per game with the league's 22nd-ranked defense. Management was fired in April, Billy Donovan stepped away, and new basketball boss Bryson Graham put it plainly: "We are rebuilding." Still, the roster got busier, not thinner: Norman Powell (an All-Star in Miami, 21.7 points per game), Nic Claxton, Buddy Hield and No. 4 pick Caleb Wilson all arrived.
The series has been one-sided lately. Toronto swept all three meetings last season.
Leonard and Barnes against a defense in transition
This is the matchup that sets the number. Leonard, now 35, averaged a career-high 27.9 points, 6.4 rebounds and 1.9 steals on 62.9% true shooting over 65 games last season, finishing seventh in MVP voting. Scottie Barnes posted 18.1 points, 7.5 rebounds and 5.9 assists, and led the league in both steals (114) and blocks (116), the only player to top 100 of each.
Around them, Toronto projects to start RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley and Jakob Poeltl, with Collin Murray-Boyles, Jamal Shead and Ja'Kobe Walter off the bench. Leonard's own pitch for this group is to play "defense first," which is bad news for a Bulls team that has to manufacture half-court offense.
Chicago's counter is length and shooting. Matas Buzelis averaged 16.3 points and 1.5 blocks (10th in the NBA) as a full-time starter, Powell brings a proven scorer's volume, and Wilson averaged 19.8 points and 9.4 rebounds in 24 games at North Carolina. Josh Giddey, entering his third season in Chicago, remains at the center of the roster. Splitter's Portland teams led the league in second-chance points and posted a top-10 defense over their final 51 games, but that system is one night old here.
Claxton's absence and the Bulls' frontcourt
The Bulls open without Nic Claxton, out with a hamstring injury. That hurts most in exactly the spot Toronto attacks: Claxton is a career 1.6 blocks per game rim protector, and the Raptors live in transition and at the rim. Without him, more of the paint falls to Buzelis and a rookie.
Isaac Okoro is listed day-to-day with a knee issue, which would thin Chicago's best perimeter defender against Leonard. Toronto has no injuries listed.
The one Raptors question is workload. Leonard played 65 games last season; how hard Darko Rajakovic leans on him in an October opener is the biggest unknown in the spread.
How the line has moved
The market has pushed toward Toronto. The spread opened at Raptors -8.5 at licensed books and sits at -9.5 everywhere now, while the total has crept from 235.5 to 236.5 and 237. The Toronto moneyline ranges from -357 to -435.
Prediction: no edge on Bulls vs Raptors
No edge. Toronto is the better team, but the price already says so.
- The model sits below the market. It makes the Raptors a 76% winner; the licensed moneylines imply 78% to 81%.
- Last season's margins already fit the spread. Toronto was +2.8 per game, Chicago -5.2, an 8-point gap before home court and before either roster changed.
- Chicago's defense is the soft spot. A 22nd-ranked unit that allowed 121.5 a night, now without Claxton, is a real problem against an 18.9 fast-break-point team.
- But the new pieces cut the other way. Powell and Wilson are unknowns in this system, and opener rotations are guesswork, which is not where you lay 9.5.
The swing factor is Leonard's minutes: a full workload covers this number, a managed one opens the back door for Chicago.
On the total, Bulls games averaged 237.8 combined points last season and Raptors games 226.4. At 236.5, the market has split the difference, and we're passing there too.
