Analysis
Brooklyn Nets vs Memphis Grizzlies Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov. 14)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model gives Memphis 68%, right at the 68-69% the -213 to -224 moneyline already implies.
- Memphis is 6-0 on the road but 2-4 at FedExForum, and plays the second night of a back-to-back after Friday's 142-111 win in New Orleans.
- The Grizzlies hit 39.0% from three on 40 attempts per game, while opponents shoot 32.6% against them.
- Brooklyn (3-8) is outscored by 5.1 points per game; Memphis wins its games by 8.1.
The Memphis Grizzlies (8-4) host the Brooklyn Nets (3-8) at FedExForum on Saturday at 8:00 PM ET (DAZN MEM, DAZN (YES)), with Memphis laying 4.5 to 5.5 points and priced between -213 and -224 on the moneyline. The tension: Memphis is a perfect 6-0 on the road but just 2-4 at home, and it plays the second night of a back-to-back. SportsHub's call: no edge. The model's 68% for Memphis sits right on the price.
How these teams got here
Memphis arrives hot. The Grizzlies hammered New Orleans 142-111 on Friday night in NBA Cup group play, tying an NBA record with 10 players in double figures. They went 18 of 45 from three and held the Pelicans to 7 of 31. Per the AP, that made it six straight road wins, the best road start in franchise history.
Home has been another story. Memphis has dropped its last four games at FedExForum: 135-134 to New Orleans, 107-103 to Indiana, 128-97 to Oklahoma City and 123-118 to Denver. On the season the Grizzlies score 119.9 points and allow 111.8, a margin of +8.1 per game.
Brooklyn closes a four-game road trip here. The Nets lost 124-121 in Atlanta and 130-93 in Dallas, then blew out New Orleans 145-111 on Wednesday. They shot 57% that night and went 20 of 41 from deep, with Egor Demin scoring 22 in his return from a six-game absence (bone bruise). For the season, Brooklyn scores 110.2 and allows 115.3, a -5.1 margin.
The schedule spot favors the visitors. Brooklyn hasn't played since Wednesday. Memphis played in New Orleans on Friday night, 24 hours before this tip.
The matchup: Memphis' three-point volume vs. a leaky Brooklyn defense
The Grizzlies shoot 39.0% from three on 40.0 attempts per game, and opponents hit just 32.6% against them. That's the clearest gap on the sheet. Brooklyn shoots 35.7% from deep and allows 35.1%.
Ty Jerome drives the offense at 25.4 points and 5.3 assists in 30.6 minutes. Cameron Boozer is the glue: 15.6 points, 9.8 rebounds and 5.2 assists. Cedric Coward (12.9 points, 8.5 rebounds) and Jaylen Wells (11.9) round out a rotation that went 10 deep in double figures on Friday.
Brooklyn relies on two scorers. Michael Porter Jr. averages 21.5 points and 7.5 rebounds, and Julius Randle adds 19.7 points, 6.5 rebounds and 5.0 assists. Behind them it thins out quickly. The Nets also turn it over 16.6 times a game, and Memphis averages 15.3 fast-break points.
The glass favors Memphis too: 47.9 rebounds per game against 42.5 for Brooklyn. That edge could shrink on Saturday, though, because the Grizzlies are short on size.
Injuries: Memphis' thin frontcourt on a back-to-back
Zach Edey (left ankle) and Quinten Post (concussion) are both listed out, along with guard Scotty Pippen Jr. (back). That leaves the minutes in the middle to Isaiah Stewart (10.9 points), Boozer and Taylor Hendricks, who grabbed 12 rebounds in New Orleans.
There's one more name to watch. Jerami Grant scored 22 on Friday but left with 7:36 to play after a head-first collision with Herb Jones on a drive, per the AP. Memphis had not filed its report for this game as of the league's 1:45 AM ET injury report, so his status is still open.
Brooklyn's report is in. Mikel Brown Jr. (illness) is questionable and Nolan Traore (right calf) is probable. Both average 12.9 points, so losing Brown would cut into a bench that's already short of scoring.
How the line has moved
Memphis opened at -195 on the moneyline at one book and now sits between -213 and -224. Brooklyn's price has slid from +163 to the +170 to +186 range. The spread is 4.5 to 5.5 across licensed books, and the total sits between 224.5 and 226.5. The market has moved toward Memphis even with the back-to-back built in.
Prediction: no edge
No edge on Nets vs. Grizzlies. The model favors Memphis, but not by more than the market already does:
- The price is the problem. At -213, the best Memphis moneyline available, the break-even is 68.1%. The model's 68% doesn't clear it, and at -222 to -224 the break-even climbs to about 69%. Strip the vig and the market makes Memphis about 66%.
- Rest cuts against the favorite. Brooklyn has had two days off, while Memphis played a full game in New Orleans on Friday night.
- The home/road split is real so far. Memphis is 6-0 away and 2-4 at FedExForum, with four straight home losses.
- The talent gap still points to Memphis. A +8.1 margin against Brooklyn's -5.1 and a 39.0% three-point stroke are why the Grizzlies deserve the favorite's role. The number just already reflects it. ESPN's Matchup Predictor (64.9%) is lower still.
Swing factor: Grant's status and Memphis' official report. If the Grizzlies sit more rotation players on the second night, Brooklyn's two-scorer attack gets a better shot at the number.
The total: Memphis games have averaged 231.7 combined points and Brooklyn games 225.5. The 224.5-226.5 range sits between them, so there's no strong play on the total either.
