Analysis
UL Monroe vs Louisiana Prediction, Picks & Odds (Thursday, Nov. 12)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model gives Louisiana 76%, below the ~79.8% implied by the best licensed moneyline (-395); the spread is 10.5 at every book.
- Louisiana runs for 203.6 yards a game; ULM allows 211.1 on the ground, 132nd in FBS.
- Venue form cuts the other way: Louisiana is 1-3 on the road, and ULM's two wins both came away from home (0-4 in Monroe).
- Turnover margin: ULM -5 (114th) vs Louisiana +3 (41st).
Louisiana (6-3) visits UL Monroe (2-7) on Thursday, Nov. 12 at 9 p.m. ET at Malone Stadium, live on ESPN2. Every licensed book has the Ragin' Cajuns at -10.5, with moneylines from -395 to -430 and a total of 48.5 to 49.5. The catch: Louisiana is 5-0 at home but 1-3 on the road, and both ULM wins came away from Monroe. No edge: the model's 76% for Louisiana sits below the market's price.
How these teams got here
Louisiana is 3-2 in the Sun Belt and comes in off a 28-26 home win over South Alabama on Nov. 7. D'Wayne "Lunch" Winfield threw for 147 yards and ran for 97 more, and JJ Garner added 136 rushing yards on 10 carries. The Cajuns score 29.9 points a game and allow 21.8.
The road is where this team gets shaky. Louisiana lost 49-30 at USC, 32-31 at Louisiana Tech and 35-31 at Southern Miss, with only a 34-7 win at Charlotte to show for four trips. Two of those three road losses came down to a single score.
UL Monroe opened 0-4 and has been outscored 313-181, but it's 2-1 over its last three road games after winning 21-14 at Troy and 19-17 at Arkansas State last Saturday. Home has been the problem: ULM is 0-4 at Malone Stadium, including a 24-0 shutout by Louisiana Tech and a 45-17 loss to FAU. Both teams played Saturday, so both are on a short week.
The Cajuns' ground game against a broken run defense
This is the matchup that decides it. Louisiana runs for 203.6 yards a game, and ULM gives up 211.1 rushing yards a game, 132nd in FBS per the AP preview. Winfield leads the Cajuns with 567 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, on top of 1,599 passing yards with a 67.1% completion rate. Garner (441 yards) and Steven Blanco (298) handle most of the backfield work.
That ground game also drains the clock. Louisiana holds the ball 33:20 a game (6th in FBS) and has scored on 96.8% of its red-zone trips (2nd). ULM allows third-down conversions 43.6% of the time (119th) and opponents score on 83.9% of their red-zone trips.
The Warhawks run their offense through two quarterbacks. Aidan Armenta has 1,413 passing yards with 10 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and Austin Carlisle leads the team with 363 rushing yards, including 111 on 19 carries at Arkansas State. Their problem is volume: ULM gains just 338.4 yards a game (113th) against a Louisiana defense that allows 323.0 (32nd). Defensive lineman Kevontay Wells has 4 of ULM's sacks.
Who's missing
The Sun Belt's Monday availability report ruled out Louisiana running back Anthony Reagan Jr. for the rest of the season. He had 59 carries for 266 yards and 3 touchdowns, fourth on the team, so the Cajuns lose depth more than a featured back. Garner's 7.2 yards per carry suggests the room can absorb it.
For ULM, running back Zach Palmer-Smith (156 yards) was cleared after missing the Arkansas State game, and CJ Phillip was listed as probable after sitting out last week. That gives the Warhawks their full backfield back, but it doesn't fix the defense.
Prediction: No edge
No edge. The model makes Louisiana a 76% winner, and the best licensed moneyline, -395, implies about 79.8%. The model doesn't beat the price, so there's no side to headline. Here's what drives the game:
- Run game vs. run defense. Louisiana's 203.6 rushing yards a game against ULM's 211.1 allowed is the biggest mismatch on the board.
- Ball security. ULM's turnover margin is -5 (114th) and Louisiana's is +3 (41st).
- Home and road form. ULM is 0-4 at home and Louisiana is 1-3 away, a big reason the gap between these records isn't priced even wider.
- The number. Per the AP preview, Louisiana is 5-3-1 against the spread and ULM is 3-6. ESPN's matchup predictor rates Louisiana higher than our model does, at 90.9%.
Swing factor: Louisiana's road scares came in close games, and Winfield has thrown 6 interceptions. A short field or two for ULM keeps this inside the number.
Total: at 48.5 to 49.5, the Cajuns' clock control pulls one way and ULM's 34.8 points allowed per game pulls the other. That's a pass too.
