Analysis
South Florida vs Memphis Prediction, Picks & Odds (Thursday, Nov 12)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model makes Memphis about a 62% favorite, and the licensed moneyline already implies about 61%.
- Memphis averages 37.6 points and 513.3 yards per game. USF allows 15.1 points and 312.7 yards, the conference's top scoring defense.
- USF QB Michael Van Buren Jr. missed the East Carolina game, and RB D.J. Crowther got hurt there. Neither has been cleared.
- The line has fallen from Memphis -6 to -3.5, and the total has risen from 49.5 to 50.5.
Memphis (7-2, 4-1 American) visits South Florida (6-3, 2-3) on Thursday at 8 p.m. ET at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, live on ESPN. The Tigers are 3.5-point favorites across licensed books after opening at -6. The tension: a Memphis offense scoring 37.6 points per game runs into a USF defense allowing 15.1, and the Bulls still haven't said who plays quarterback. SportsHub verdict: no edge. The model and the market see this game almost the same way.
How these teams got here
Memphis comes in rested. The Tigers beat Army 49-22 on Oct. 31, took last week off, and get 12 days between games. Their only losses came on the road, 38-20 at Boise State and 31-17 at Tulane. Since then they've won two straight, including a 41-34 overtime win over East Carolina.
South Florida's season under first-year coach Brian Hartline has drifted. The Bulls started 4-0, then lost close games to Temple (17-13) and at UTSA (31-24). They beat Kent State and UAB, then lost 20-17 at East Carolina last Friday. That leaves them on six days' rest against a team that had two weeks. Memphis has also won the last five meetings, per Roundtable Sports, including a 34-31 win in Memphis last October.
Marcus Stokes vs. the American's stingiest defense
This is the game. Marcus Stokes has thrown for 2,532 yards, 25 touchdowns and six interceptions, completing 179 of 259 passes. He was nearly perfect against Army, going 29-of-35 for 371 yards and four scores. Jaylin Carter adds 929 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, and Hunter Tipton leads the receivers with 495 yards. The result is 513.3 yards per game, 290.6 through the air and 222.8 on the ground.
USF's defense is the only reason this line is short. The Bulls lead the conference in scoring defense, per Roundtable Sports, at 15.1 points and 312.7 yards allowed per game. They've given up more than 20 points only twice. C.J. Hicks has five sacks, and Ayden Jackson leads the team with 50 tackles.
Memphis's soft spot is its run defense, at 187.9 rushing yards allowed per game. USF runs for 148.2 a game, so the Bulls' path to an upset is shortening the game on the ground and keeping Stokes on the sideline.
The USF backfield question
That ground plan depends on players who may not be healthy. Starting quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. (1,273 yards, six touchdowns, no interceptions) left the UAB game and missed the trip to East Carolina. Per Roundtable Sports, it's unclear whether he'll be available. Luke Kromenhoek started in Greenville and went 17-of-21 for 179 yards and a touchdown, though he was sacked three times.
Leading rusher D.J. Crowther (689 yards, seven touchdowns) ran for 111 yards at East Carolina but got hurt on the tying drive, per Predictem, and Hartline has offered no update on either player. Jason Collins Jr. (264 yards, three touchdowns) is next in line. The Bulls already rank last in the conference in total offense at 316.2 yards per game, so losing either player shrinks an offense with little margin.
Memphis has no absences listed on ESPN's game page coming off the open date. The conference's player availability report, due before kickoff, should settle USF's quarterback and running back spots.
How the line has moved
The market has moved toward the home underdog despite the uncertainty. Memphis opened -6 with a moneyline around -230 and has dropped to -3.5, priced -173 to -178. USF is now +144 to +150. The total opened at 49.5 and sits at 50 to 50.5. That's 2.5 points of movement toward a team that may be on its backup quarterback, and it lines the market up with the numbers below.
Prediction: no edge
No edge. Memphis is the right side on paper, but the price already says so.
- Model vs. market: the SportsHub model gives Memphis 62% with low confidence. The licensed moneyline implies roughly 61% once the vig is removed, and ESPN's matchup predictor has 62.8%. No gap to bet into.
- The offenses aren't close: Memphis outgains opponents by 136 yards a game, while USF is last in the American in total offense. That's why Memphis is favored at all.
- The defenses flip it: USF's 15.1 points allowed against Memphis's 23.6 is the counterweight, and Memphis's run defense is a real opening.
- Rest and series: 12 days of rest and five straight wins in the series favor Memphis, and the market has already priced them in.
Swing factor: USF's availability report. If Van Buren and Crowther are both out, Memphis -3.5 looks short. If both play, the move toward USF looks right.
On the total: 50.5 splits the two profiles. Seven of Memphis's nine games have gone over that number, but only three of USF's nine have. No play.
