Analysis
South Florida vs Kent State Prediction, Picks & Odds (Week 7)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: every verified number favors USF, but our model panel favors Kent State, and we won't lay 21 points on conflicting signals.
- Kent State has scored 10 points and allowed 154 in three road games this season.
- USF has lost two straight, including a 31-24 loss at UTSA where it was outgained 486-288.
- Total 45.5: Kent scores 13.7 per game, but allows 32.5. No lean.
South Florida (4-2) hosts Kent State (2-4) on Saturday at 7 p.m. ET at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, streaming on ESPN+. The Bulls are 20.5- to 21-point favorites with a 45.5 total, but they've dropped two straight under first-year coach Brian Hartline. Kent State has scored 10 points in three road games. Our model panel has this game backwards, and the spread is enormous, so SportsHub's call is no edge.
How these teams got here
USF opened 4-0 under Hartline, then hit a wall. On Oct. 3 the Bulls lost 17-13 to Temple at home, when their offense had just 108 yards in the first half and the game ended on a fumbled lateral. Five days later they lost 31-24 at UTSA and were outgained 486-288. For the season, USF scores 26.2 points per game and allows 17.3, a +53 differential. The Bulls played on Thursday, Oct. 8, so they've had nine days to regroup.
Kent State is 2-4 and 1-2 in the MAC, and the season splits cleanly in two. At home, the Flashes beat Wofford 36-15 and Ball State 26-13 and lost 13-10 to Ohio. On the road, they lost 57-0 at South Carolina, 59-3 at Ohio State and 38-7 at Western Michigan last week. That's 10 points scored and 154 allowed in three road games. Overall, Kent averages 13.7 points and allows 32.5, a -113 differential.
Can Kent State's offense move the ball in Tampa?
Kent's offense is the key question. At Western Michigan, Dru DeShields went 19 of 35 for 223 yards with one touchdown and one interception, and the Flashes ran for just 75 yards. Wayne Harris was the bright spot with 11 catches for 164 yards. If Harris gets loose again, Kent can at least stay out of the 0 and 3 point games it posted at South Carolina and Ohio State.
USF's defense hasn't been as sharp lately. UTSA ran for 277 yards and 6.4 yards per carry against the Bulls, and A'Marion Peterson scored three times. That's the one area where Kent State might find something, though its own run game managed just 2.8 yards per carry against Western Michigan.
On the other side, USF quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. went 16 of 29 for 177 yards and two touchdowns at UTSA after a 17-of-32, 205-yard day against Temple. D.J. Crowther has been the steady piece, with 83 rushing yards and two touchdowns at UTSA. Against a defense allowing 32.5 points a game, this is a chance for the Bulls' offense to find its rhythm.
Lineup notes
As of Friday morning, we couldn't verify an injury list from either school for this nonconference game, so the injury module is empty. Van Buren has started USF's recent games, and DeShields has been Kent's quarterback in every box score this season. If either team changes quarterbacks, the outlook changes. Otherwise, the bigger issue for USF is cleaning up the execution mistakes Hartline blamed for the Temple loss: drops, penalties and the fumbled lateral.
Prediction: no edge
Everything we can verify says USF is the far better team. Our model panel shows Kent State as the 85% favorite, which looks like the teams are flipped, so we're not using it. Without a model we trust, we aren't laying three touchdowns.
- Point differential: USF is +53; Kent State is -113.
- Kent on the road: 10 points scored in three road games, all losses by 31 or more.
- USF's form: two straight losses, including being outgained by 198 yards at UTSA. A 21-point cover requires a team playing better than that.
- The model: it contradicts every number above, so it gives us no reason to back either side.
Swing factor: USF's offense. If the Bulls play like they did in September, this is a rout. If they play like they did against Temple, 20.5 to 21 points is a lot to cover.
On the total: 45.5 is a tricky number. Kent's road games stayed low on its end, but USF's offense has scored 13 and 24 in its last two. We have no lean.
