SMU Mustangs vs Wake Forest Demon DeaconsPrediction, Picks & Odds

No. 25 SMU (7-2, 5-2 ACC) hosts No. 11 Wake Forest (8-1, 5-1) at noon ET Saturday at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, on ESPN. Wake opened as the road favorite, but the market has flipped: SMU is now a 1- to 1.5-point favorite, and the total has climbed to 60.5. Gio Lopez is listed probable after missing a week, while the Mustangs' secondary is thin. No edge: our model sees a coin flip, and so does the market.

Wake's streak runs into SMU's home wall

Wake Forest has won six straight since a 33-20 loss to Miami in September, outscoring those six opponents 294-58. For the season the Deacons score 43.3 points per game (4th in FBS) and allow 15.9 (13th). The caveat is the recent schedule: 77-0 over Merrimack, 57-3 over Stanford, 51-7 over Virginia and 41-7 at Cal. The quality wins came earlier, 30-27 over Louisville and 38-36 in double overtime over Purdue.

SMU's two losses were 41-31 to Louisville and 30-27 at Syracuse on Oct. 31. The Mustangs answered with a 51-28 win over Virginia Tech on Friday, Nov. 6, so they get an extra day of rest here. Home is where this team lives: SMU is 12-0 in ACC home games since joining the league, and Kevin Jennings is 16-1 as a starter at Ford Stadium. It's also Homecoming and Senior Day, and there's a score to settle: Wake won last year's meeting 13-12 in Winston-Salem on a Connor Calvert 50-yard field goal as time expired.

Jennings vs the soft spot in Wake's defense

The most important matchup is SMU's passing game against Wake's back end. Jennings has 25 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions, completing 73.9%, and he threw for 350 yards and four scores against Virginia Tech. SMU averages 323.8 passing yards per game (6th in FBS). Wake is elite against the run (85.0 yards allowed, 8th) but gives up 225.0 through the air (86th), so expect Jennings to throw early and often to Yamir Knight (50 catches, 626 yards, 6 TDs).

Wake's answer is just as dangerous. Lopez has 18 touchdowns against one interception, and Carlos Hernandez has 61 catches for 945 yards and 7 scores. Inside the 20, Wake scores on 93.5% of trips (13th), while SMU's red zone defense ranks 120th, allowing points on 91.3%. Wake also converts 51.4% on third down (9th) and sits at +4 in turnover margin (28th) against SMU's -4 (105th), per AP. The Deacons' flaw is discipline: 83.2 penalty yards per game, last in FBS. Marques White (7.5 sacks) is the SMU pass rusher Lopez has to account for; Langston Hardy (5.5) leads Wake.

Lopez is back; SMU's secondary is not

Lopez hurt his lower right leg in the Oct. 31 win over Virginia and sat out the Merrimack rout. Coach Jake Dickert said Monday, "He'll be ready to go Saturday," and the ACC's Thursday availability report lists him as probable. If he is limited, Steele Pizzella went 23-of-28 for 432 yards and three touchdowns against Merrimack. Wake is without offensive linemen Tolu Olajide and Dalton DeBoer, defensive back Devin Cook, receiver Elijah Otieno and tight end Landon Morris. Linebacker Aiden Hall is probable.

SMU's list is longer and hits the defense. Safety Tyren Polley Jr. and cornerback Jaelyn Davis-Robinson are out, along with defensive ends Ira Singleton IV, Trey Wilson and Jahkai Lang and linebackers I'Zayah Young and Caden Marshall. Safeties Ahmaad Moses and Jaden Milliner-Jones are questionable. That is a thin secondary to throw against Hernandez. On offense, linemen Abel Hoopii and Evan Goodwin, running back Link Rhodes and receiver Carterrious Brown are out.

How the line has moved

Wake opened as a 2.5- to 3.5-point road favorite at -162 on the moneyline. Now SMU is -1 to -1.5, at -113 to -115, with Wake at -104 to -105. That's a swing of 3.5 to 5 points that flipped the favorite, in a week when Lopez's status went from held out to probable. The total opened 55.5 and sits at 60.5 at every licensed book.

Prediction: No edge on SMU vs Wake Forest

No edge. Our model has this game as a coin flip, and the market prices SMU at roughly 51% without the vig. There's nothing to beat. The factors split:

• Wake's profile is stronger: scoring defense 13th vs 53rd, turnover margin +4 vs -4, third down 51.4% vs 47.7%.
• SMU's spot is stronger: a 12-0 ACC home record, an extra day of rest, and the 6th-ranked passing attack against the 86th-ranked pass defense.
• The red zone favors Wake: a 93.5% offense against a defense ranked 120th.
• Outside opinion splits too: ESPN's matchup predictor makes Wake a 59.1% favorite, while the books make SMU a slight favorite.

The swing factor is Lopez's mobility in his first game back, against an SMU defense missing three ends. On the total, two top-20 scoring offenses justify 60.5, but the 5-point climb has already taken the value.