Analysis
New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State Prediction, Picks & Odds (Week 9)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model gives Jacksonville State 59% at low confidence, below the 61-62% the licensed moneyline (-157 to -162) already implies.
- New Mexico State allows 51.3 rushing yards per game in CUSA play, the best mark of any FBS team in conference games.
- Jax State has won four straight, three by 4 points or fewer, and hasn't played since Oct. 13.
- Both teams' games have averaged exactly 50.0 combined points against a 49.5 total.
Jacksonville State (5-2, 3-0 CUSA) brings a four-game win streak into Las Cruces to face New Mexico State (3-4, 2-1 CUSA) on Wednesday at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN2. The Gamecocks are 3- to 3.5-point favorites, with the total at 49.5. The hook: the stingiest conference run defense in FBS meets a team that keeps winning by a field goal and hasn't played in 15 days. Our call: no edge.
How these teams got here
Jax State started 1-2. It lost 33-7 at North Dakota State and 29-27 in four overtimes at Ohio, then ripped off four straight wins: Georgia Southern 31-27, Middle Tennessee 23-13, at Kennesaw State 27-26 and FIU 27-24 on Oct. 13. Three of those four wins came by 4 points or fewer. The Gamecocks score 27.3 points per game (79th in FBS) and allow 22.7 (56th), per the AP. They're 4-0 at home and 1-2 on the road.
New Mexico State has been all over the place. The Aggies beat Western Kentucky 34-13 at home, scored 3 points in a loss at FIU, then won 30-24 at Sam Houston on Oct. 21 for their first road win of the season. They average 24.6 points (95th) and allow 25.4 (83rd). Home field matters in this league: CUSA teams are 24-10 at home and 7-29 on the road this season, per NM State's game notes.
James Jones and the Aggies' run wall vs. Caden Creel
This game lives on the ground. New Mexico State allows 109.1 rushing yards per game (30th in FBS) and just 51.3 in CUSA play, the best mark of any FBS team in conference games. It held Sam Houston to 11 rushing yards. DE Gabe Peterson leads CUSA with 5.5 sacks, and the Aggies have 17 as a team.
On offense, RB James Jones carries them: 777 yards on 6.5 per carry, 111.0 per game (10th nationally) and 140.7 in league games, including a career-high 178 at Sam Houston.
Jax State runs everything through Caden Creel. He's 129-of-192 for 1,637 yards, 12 TDs and 6 INTs, and he adds 500 rushing yards and four scores. Deondre Johnson leads the receivers with 431 yards, and Jamill Williams has five TD catches. If NMSU's front takes away Creel's legs the way it did Sam Houston's run game, Jax State has to win on third downs. That's an issue on the other side too: the Gamecocks rank 127th in third-down defense (45.8%).
The Aggies' quarterback and turnover problem
New Mexico State's weak spot is ball security. The Aggies are -5 in turnover margin (120th) and have thrown 9 interceptions. Coach Tony Sanchez went with Adam Damante at Sam Houston (per the Albuquerque Journal), and Damante threw two TDs in the win. Season-opening starter Trey Hedden still leads the team with 906 yards, but he has 5 TDs against 6 picks. We found no announced starter for Wednesday. CUSA doesn't publish an official availability report either, so there's no injury table for this one.
The Aggies also rank 115th in red-zone defense. That's a bad fit against a Jax State offense that keeps finishing one-score games.
How the line has moved
Jax State opened at -3 and -142 on the moneyline, with a total of 50.5. The moneyline has since climbed to -157 to -162. The spread touched -3.5 on Tuesday before settling back at -3 at some books and -3.5 at others, and the total dropped to 49.5. The market likes Jax State to win but won't commit to it past a field goal.
Prediction: no edge
No edge. The reasons:
- The model sits below the market. It gives Jax State 59%, while the licensed moneyline already implies 61-62%. ESPN Analytics is lower still, at 56.5%.
- The model's confidence is low, so it isn't a call we'd headline.
- The factors split. Jax State has the better scoring margin (+4.6 per game vs. NMSU's -0.8). New Mexico State has home field and a 51.3-yard league run defense.
- The number sits on Jax State's margins. Three of its four straight wins came by 4 or fewer, right around a 3-point spread.
Swing factor: NMSU's turnovers. If the Aggies' quarterback play holds up, the run game and the home crowd keep this inside a field goal. Another multi-giveaway night hands it to Creel.
Total: both teams' games have averaged exactly 50.0 combined points, half a point over 49.5. No play there either.
