Analysis
James Madison Dukes vs Troy Trojans Prediction, Picks & Odds (Week 9, Thursday Night)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model leans Troy, but the market prices JMU at -1050 to -1450, so we pass on the side and the total.
- JMU scores 41.4 points a game and allows 18.3; Troy scores 22.9 and allows 24.9.
- JMU is without RB George Pettaway (824 yards, 8 TD); Troy WR TK Keyes is questionable.
- Troy is 0-3 on the road and plays on five days' rest after Saturday's loss to ULM.
James Madison (7-1, 4-1 Sun Belt) hosts Troy (3-4, 1-2) on Thursday, Oct. 29 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Bridgeforth Stadium in Harrisonburg, Va., on ESPN2. The Dukes are 18.5- to 21-point favorites, with most books at -19.5 and the total at 49.5 to 50.5. The tension: JMU scores 41.4 points a game but plays without its leading rusher, while Troy arrives on a short week with a passing game that has stalled. Our call: no edge.
How these teams got here
JMU's only loss came last Thursday, a 34-31 overtime loss at App State. Before that, the Dukes rolled through five straight wins: 46-20 at Old Dominion, 45-17 over Marshall, 27-24 at Georgia Southern and 49-22 over Georgia State. They are 4-0 at home, score 41.4 points per game and allow just 18.3. Their 42 offensive touchdowns rank sixth in FBS, per Fox Sports.
Troy is trending the other way. The Trojans have lost two straight: 33-6 at Louisiana and 21-14 to ULM on Saturday. Their last win was a 55-34 home rout of Southern Miss. They are 0-3 on the road (losses at Missouri, Utah State and Louisiana), score 22.9 points per game and allow 24.9.
The schedule cuts against Troy too. JMU has had a full week since Oct. 22. Troy played Saturday, so it gets five days to prepare and a trip from Alabama to Virginia.
Two run games, one passing gap
Both teams want to run. Troy averages 197.3 rushing yards per game and JMU averages 207.3. The Dukes' front allows only 110.1 on the ground; Troy's allows 129.4.
The gap is through the air. JMU's Camden Coleman has thrown for 1,567 yards, 14 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions, with JC Evans used as a change-up (5-of-7 for 99 yards and a touchdown at App State). Corey Scott leads the Dukes with 371 receiving yards. Nakian Jackson leads the defense with 53 tackles.
Troy's Goose Crowder has 1,162 yards, 9 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, but he has battled a shoulder injury and went 6-of-14 for 50 yards against ULM. Troy throws for just 176.4 yards per game against a JMU pass defense that gives up 242.5. Gavin Griffin (398 rushing yards) carries the ground game, and Donnie Smith's 6 sacks are Troy's best shot at speeding Coleman up.
Pettaway's absence and Troy's missing deep threat
The biggest lineup story is in JMU's backfield. George Pettaway is out after a lower-body injury at App State. His 824 yards and 8 touchdowns account for roughly half of JMU's rushing production. Wide receiver Za'Ron Collins is also out, per the Sun Belt availability report.
Troy's issue is on the perimeter. TK Keyes is questionable after missing the ULM game. He leads the Trojans with 282 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns. Without him, Troy's passing game nearly disappeared on Saturday. Crowder is listed as probable.
How the line has moved
JMU opened at -17.5 and has been bet up to -18.5 to -21, with the moneyline now -1050 to -1450 on the Dukes and +720 to +850 on Troy. The total has dropped from 52.5 to 49.5-50.5. The market expects a comfortable JMU win in a lower-scoring game than the opener suggested.
Prediction: No edge
No edge on James Madison vs Troy. Our model leans Troy, and we don't stand behind that call:
- Scoring margin: JMU outscores opponents by 23.1 points per game; Troy is at -2.0.
- Market and outside models: the licensed moneyline implies roughly 91-94% for JMU, and ESPN Analytics gives the Dukes 91.7%.
- Road form and rest: Troy is 0-3 away from home and on five days' rest.
- But the number is big: without Pettaway, JMU loses half its ground game, and an 18.5- to 21-point spread asks a lot against a Troy team that runs for nearly 200 yards a game.
The swing factor is Keyes. If he plays, Troy has a vertical threat to keep this inside the number; if not, Crowder has little to work with.
On the total, JMU's last two games produced 65 and 71 points, while Troy's produced 39 and 35. With the market already down three points from the open, we pass there too.
