Analysis
Navy vs Notre Dame Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct 31 at Gillette Stadium)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model splits Navy vs Notre Dame 50/50 at very low confidence, while the market prices the Irish near 98%.
- Notre Dame is -30.5 at every licensed book after opening -28.5; the total climbed from 53.5 to 56.5-57.5.
- Navy runs for 307.7 yards per game; Notre Dame allows just 67.3 rushing yards per game.
- Notre Dame has 2 giveaways in seven games; Navy has 10.
Navy (2-5) and No. 5 Notre Dame (6-1) meet Saturday at noon ET at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, a neutral site, on ABC. The Irish are -30.5 at every licensed book after opening -28.5, with the total at 56.5 to 57.5. The tension: Navy runs for 307.7 yards a game, and Notre Dame allows just 67.3 on the ground. Our model can't separate these teams, so this is no edge.
How these teams got here
Notre Dame rolled through six straight wins, by an average of 33 points, before a 28-24 loss at BYU on Oct. 17. The Irish then had a bye, so they arrive with two weeks to fix what went wrong in Provo. CJ Carr went 27 of 49 for 261 yards there with no touchdowns, his first college game with a passer rating under 100, per Field Level Media.
The season numbers are still elite. Notre Dame scores 41.1 points per game and allows 13.4. It has turned the ball over only twice in seven games, against 16 takeaways.
Navy is 2-5 and 1-4 in the American, its worst start in Brian Newberry's four seasons. The Midshipmen have dropped two straight, the latest a 49-39 home loss to North Texas a week ago. Every one of their five losses came by 10 points or fewer: 8 at FAU, 4 at UAB, 5 at Air Force, 4 at UTSA and 10 against North Texas. Navy scores 29.7 and allows 29.1 per game, and it has 10 giveaways against only 4 takeaways.
Navy's option vs. Notre Dame's front
This game lives on one question: can Navy stay on schedule against a run defense that allows 67.3 yards a game?
QB Jackson Gutierrez drives everything. He has 869 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns at 5.8 a carry, plus 7 touchdown passes against 1 interception. He ran for 228 yards and three scores against North Texas. Backup Braxton Woodson adds 384 rushing yards at 7.8 a carry, and Michael Barrow has 442.
Notre Dame's defense allows 235.0 total yards per game. If Navy has to throw on third down, it is in trouble: the Midshipmen average 119.4 passing yards a game.
On the other side, Carr has 1,639 yards, 16 touchdowns and 1 interception. Jordan Faison leads the Irish with 451 receiving yards, and Micah Gilbert adds 409. The ground game is split between Jonaz Walton (426 yards) and Nolan James Jr. (412). Navy's defense gives up 255.9 passing yards a game, which sets up a reset day for Carr.
Availability: the report lands Saturday morning
Neither team's official availability report was out at our check. It usually posts on game day, about two hours before kickoff, so the injury table is empty for now.
What we know: Irish tight end Cooper Flanagan (hamstring) was called questionable by a Notre Dame beat writer early this week, and Navy tight end Theo Elwell didn't play against North Texas. Neither is a game-wrecker against a 30-point spread, but check the report before you bet.
How the line has moved
The spread opened at Notre Dame -28.5 and has settled at -30.5 across the board. The total moved more: it opened at 53.5 and now sits at 56.5, with one book at 57.5. The moneyline is no help, since the Irish are priced from -6500 to -12500.
That total move is the interesting part. Navy's offense is built to shorten games, yet the market expects more points, likely because Navy's defense has allowed 87 points in its last two games.
Prediction: no edge
No edge. Here's why we pass:
- The model has no read. It splits the game 50/50 at very low confidence, while the licensed moneylines put Notre Dame near 98%. ESPN's matchup predictor has the Irish at 98.7%. There's nothing to back.
- The spread cuts both ways. Notre Dame's +27.7 points-per-game margin says the Irish can get near 30.5. Navy's five losses, all by 10 or fewer, say the triple option keeps games tight.
- Turnovers lean Notre Dame. The Irish have 2 giveaways all season; Navy has 10. One extra Navy possession can swing a 30-point number.
- Rest favors the Irish. Notre Dame is off a bye; Navy is a week removed from a 49-39 shootout.
Swing factor: Navy's clock control. If Gutierrez keeps the chains moving, the Irish get fewer possessions, and that matters more than talent against a 30.5 spread.
On the total: 56.5 asks Notre Dame to do most of the scoring. The move up from 53.5 has already priced in Navy's leaky defense, so we don't see value either way.
