Analysis
Michigan vs Penn State Prediction, Picks & Odds (Big Ten, Oct. 17)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model gives Michigan 67%, below the roughly 71% the moneyline implies.
- Michigan allows 241.4 yards per game, third in the country, but scores only 23.0 points per game.
- Penn State's run defense gives up 165.8 yards per game, Michigan's clearest path to points.
- Michigan opened -6.5 and sits at -6; the total is 43.
Michigan (3-2, 0-2 Big Ten) hosts Penn State (3-3, 0-3) at 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, live on CBS. The Wolverines are 6-point favorites with a total of 43, in a meeting of two preseason Top 25 teams that have lost five straight Big Ten games between them. Michigan's defense is elite; its offense is not. Our model leans Michigan, but not by enough to beat the price: no edge.
How these teams got here
Both programs are in year one under new head coaches, and neither has found the floor yet. Michigan, under Kyle Whittingham, dropped a 20-19 home game to Iowa on a touchdown on the final play, then lost 20-14 at Minnesota on Oct. 3. That Minnesota game was ugly: one score, about 180 yards of offense and three turnovers, while Minnesota ran 65 plays to Michigan's 49. The Wolverines had last week off to regroup.
Penn State, now coached by Matt Campbell, has lost three in a row: 24-20 to Wisconsin, 34-13 at Northwestern and 31-23 at home to USC last Saturday. The Nittany Lions still score more than Michigan, 30.5 points per game to 23.0, but they also allow more: 18.5 to Michigan's 15.8.
Michigan's defense vs. Rocco Becht
This game turns on whether Penn State's passing game can move the ball against one of the stingiest defenses in the country. Michigan allows 241.4 total yards per game, third nationally, and just 146.8 passing yards per game. On the ground it gives up 2.8 yards per carry.
Rocco Becht is the best quarterback on the field on paper. He has thrown for 1,397 yards, 11 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and he went 21-for-32 for 289 yards and a score against USC. Chase Sowell leads the Nittany Lions with 23 catches for 359 yards. The run game has been thin: James Peoples leads with 232 yards on 52 carries, and the team averages 4.1 yards per carry.
Michigan's offense is the problem child. Bryce Underwood, the sophomore former five-star, has completed 59.3% of his passes for 881 yards, 5 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, and he went 10-for-21 for 101 yards with two picks at Minnesota. Whittingham has kept him as the starter ("Bryce is our guy") and kept Jason Beck calling plays, though backup Tommy Carr took about half the first-team reps during the bye. Jordan Marshall leads the ground game with 244 yards and J.J. Buchanan leads in receiving with 446 yards and 4 touchdowns.
The soft spot on Penn State's side is run defense: the Nittany Lions allow 165.8 rushing yards per game. If Michigan can lean on Marshall and keep Underwood in short, safe throws, the Wolverines can control the clock the way Minnesota did to them.
The injury and turnover angle
Michigan's offensive line is still short-handed. Tackle Andrew Sprague has been out since mid-September with a health issue and was expected to miss several more weeks. Andrew Babalola returned to practice on Monday for the first time in about a month, and his role Saturday depended on how he handled the workload. Tight end Hogan Hansen is back from injury.
Turnovers are the bigger story. Whittingham called turnover margin "our big demise," and Michigan ranked around 122nd nationally in that stat at his last check. Against a Penn State team that has been throwing well, one short field could decide a game priced this tight in points.
How the line has moved
Michigan opened as a 6.5-point favorite and the number has ticked down to 6, a half-point drift toward Penn State. The total sits at 43, a low number that respects Michigan's defense and doubts both offenses.
Prediction: no edge
Our model makes Michigan the winner 67% of the time, but the moneyline (around -250) already implies about 71%. Here is why we pass:
- Price: the model's 67% sits below the market's implied number, so there is no value on the Michigan moneyline.
- Defense vs. offense: Michigan's defense (third in yards allowed) is the best unit on the field, but its offense scores just 23.0 per game, which makes covering six points hard.
- Penn State's run defense: at 165.8 rushing yards allowed per game, it gives Michigan a path, if Michigan avoids giveaways.
- Turnovers: Michigan's turnover margin is the swing factor in both directions.
The risk: Underwood throws two more interceptions and Becht turns short fields into points. On the total, two good pass defenses and Michigan's slow offense point toward a low-scoring game, but 43 already prices that in, so we would not chase either side.
