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Analysis
Miami (OH) vs Buffalo Prediction, Picks & Odds (Tuesday MACtion, Nov. 3)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model gives Miami (OH) 68% at low confidence, below the 70–73% the -235 to -265 moneylines imply.
- Miami allows 97.1 rushing yards a game (15th in FBS); Buffalo runs for 176 a game behind Messiah Burch's 845 yards.
- Caleb Heavner is 3-1 as Miami's starter with David McComb out for the season, but he has 3 TD and 4 INT.
- Miami ranks 129th in red-zone defense, allowing scores on 95.2% of trips.
Miami (OH) (5-3, 3-1 MAC) hosts Buffalo (5-3, 3-1 MAC) at Yager Stadium in Oxford on Tuesday at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN. The RedHawks are 6.5-point favorites, -235 to -265 on the moneyline, with a total of 44.5. Both teams have won three straight and are coming off a bye. The hook: Buffalo wins by running the ball, and Miami owns a top-15 run defense. Our call: no edge. The model likes Miami, just not at this price.
How these teams got here
Miami's season changed on Sept. 26. Starting quarterback David McComb got hurt in the fourth quarter of a 24-21 win over UConn, and the RedHawks lost their next game, 24-20 to Bowling Green. Since then they've won three in a row: 20-19 at UMass, 34-14 over Akron and 28-27 at Central Michigan. Miami scores 27.0 points per game (75th in FBS) and allows 25.8 (85th). Five of its eight games were decided by four points or fewer. Its other two losses came on the road against Power Four teams (59-14 at Pitt, 35-31 at Cincinnati).
Buffalo's path is close to identical. The Bulls lost at FIU (33-20) and at Penn State (55-13), dropped a 20-17 game to Western Michigan, and have since beaten Toledo 23-8 on the road, UMass 25-18 in overtime and Bowling Green 31-24. They score 22.6 points per game (106th) and allow 25.4 (79th). Home field matters here: Buffalo is 4-1 at home and 1-2 on the road, and Miami is 3-1 at Yager.
Both teams last played Oct. 24, so neither has a rest edge. Both are also tied at 3-1 with Toledo, behind Ohio (4-0) and Western Michigan (4-1) in the MAC.
Messiah Burch vs. the RedHawks' front
Buffalo's offense runs through Messiah Burch: 845 yards on 151 carries (5.6 per carry) with five touchdowns, including 33 carries for 184 yards and three scores against Bowling Green. The Bulls run for 176 yards a game (44th in FBS) because they can't throw. Jason Wright completes 49.7% of his passes (987 yards, 7 TD, 4 INT), and Buffalo's 155 passing yards a game rank 130th.
That runs straight into Miami's strength. The RedHawks allow just 97.1 rushing yards a game, 15th in FBS per the AP's numbers. Roosevelt Andrews III has 4.5 sacks and Malcolm McCain 59 tackles. If Miami makes Wright beat it, the math tilts hard toward the home team.
There are two catches. Miami's pass defense ranks 132nd (269.9 yards a game), so even a limited passing game has room to work. And the RedHawks rank 129th in red-zone defense, giving up scores on 95.2% of trips. Buffalo converts 86.7% of its own (56th). When the Bulls do get close, they finish.
Miami's quarterback switch
McComb was the RedHawks' best passer (1,121 yards, 7 TD, 1 INT), but RotoWire, citing the MAC availability report, lists him out for the season with an upper-body injury. Caleb Heavner has started the last four games and gone 3-1, but the production has been thin: 615 passing yards, 3 TD, 4 INT on the season. He went 6-of-20 at UMass and 8-of-16 against Akron, then threw for 221 yards with two interceptions at Central Michigan. His legs help (217 rushing yards, 2 TD), and Maleek Huggins (24 catches, 431 yards, including 7 for 122 last time out) is the vertical threat. Rodney Nelson leads the run game with 391 yards.
On Buffalo's side, RB Terrance Shelton Jr. (arm) and WR Patrick Clacks III missed the Bowling Green game per the MAC report. The availability report for Tuesday hadn't been posted when we checked, so neither is listed in the injury table.
How the line has moved
Miami opened at -6.5 with a 45.5 total and a -230 moneyline. The spread has bounced between -6 and -7 and is back at -6.5. The total has dropped a point to 44.5, and the moneyline has firmed to -235 through -265. Both teams are 4-4 against the spread, per the AP.
Prediction: no edge
No edge on Miami (OH) vs Buffalo.
- The price is already there. The model gives Miami 68% at low confidence. -235 implies 70.1% and -265 implies 72.6%, so there's no value on the RedHawks. ESPN's matchup predictor (66.7%) lands in the same spot.
- The matchup favors Miami. A run defense ranked 15th against a one-dimensional offense that throws for 155 yards a game is a real advantage.
- The margins say otherwise. Five of Miami's eight games were decided by four points or fewer, and Heavner has thrown more picks (4) than touchdowns (3). Laying 6.5 asks more of this offense than it has shown.
- Road Buffalo has struggled. The Bulls are 1-2 away from home, but those losses came against FIU and Penn State, not MAC opponents.
The swing factor is Miami's red-zone defense: at a 95.2% scoring rate allowed, a couple of short fields can turn a Miami cover into a Buffalo backdoor.
On the total, Miami's four MAC games averaged 46.5 combined points and Buffalo's averaged 41.5. They sit on either side of 44.5, so we're passing on the total too.
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