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Analysis
Akron Zips vs Ohio Bobcats Prediction, Picks & Odds (MACtion Tuesday, Nov. 3)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model makes Ohio an 81% winner, but the best Ohio moneyline (-530) already implies about 84%.
- Ohio runs for 192.4 yards per game (29th in FBS); Akron allows 185.6 on the ground (118th).
- Akron is -8 in turnover margin (132nd) and has lost six straight while scoring 19.0 points per game.
- Two of Ohio's four MAC wins came by four points or fewer, and the spread has climbed from 12.5 to 13.5–14.
Ohio (6-2, 4-0 MAC) visits Akron (1-7, 0-4 MAC) at InfoCision Stadium on Tuesday, Nov. 3, at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2. The Bobcats are 13.5- to 14-point road favorites (-530 to -600 on the moneyline), and the total sits at 50.5 to 51.5. On paper Ohio's run game draws a run defense ranked 118th. The catch is the price. SportsHub's call: no edge. The model makes Ohio an 81% winner, which is less than the moneyline already charges.
How these teams got here
Ohio has won five straight: 35-7 over Stonehill, 13-10 at Kent State, 31-14 over Central Michigan, 48-7 at Sacramento State and 24-20 over Eastern Michigan on Oct. 24. That leaves the Bobcats alone atop the MAC at 4-0, scoring 29.6 points per game and allowing 21.9.
They haven't always been dominant. Two of the four league wins came by four points or fewer, and Ohio is 4-4 against the spread.
Akron is headed the other way. The Zips have lost six straight, score 19.0 points per game (127th in FBS) and allow 32.8 (128th). Over their last five they lost 38-10 to UNLV, 41-17 at Central Michigan, 25-23 to Eastern Michigan, 34-14 at Miami (OH) and 35-20 at Kent State. Only the Eastern Michigan game stayed within one score.
Both teams last played on Oct. 24, so each gets 10 days of rest. Neither side has a schedule edge.
Ohio's ground game vs. Akron's soft front
This is the matchup that decides the game. Ohio runs for 192.4 yards per game (29th) and throws for just 177 (120th). Akron's defense gives up 185.6 rushing yards per game (118th).
Victor Rosa leads the Bobcats with 364 yards and five touchdowns on 77 carries. Quarterback Nick Poulos has six touchdown passes and no interceptions. Against Eastern Michigan he went 19 of 29 for 266 yards with a touchdown and ran one in. Riley Neer is the top target with 37 catches for nearly 500 yards and five scores, and Dom Dorwart went for 125 yards on four catches last time out.
On the money downs Ohio converts 49% of third downs (19th), while Akron allows 38.6% (77th).
Akron's offense runs through Jordan Gant, who has six rushing touchdowns and ran for 162 yards on 28 carries at Kent State. Quarterback Brayden Roggow has thrown for 1,343 yards, but with 9 interceptions against 7 touchdowns. Ohio's defense allows 135.1 rushing yards per game (61st) and 333.4 total (45th). Linebacker Michael Molnar leads the team in tackles (70) and sacks (5).
Turnovers, penalties and who's available
Akron's hidden-yardage problem is real. The Zips are -8 in turnover margin (132nd) and give away 69.8 penalty yards per game (114th). Ohio gives away 40.4 penalty yards per game, 12th-fewest in the country. Against a 14-point favorite, extra possessions and short fields are the fastest way to get buried.
We found no published availability report for either team as of Tuesday morning, so the injury table is empty rather than guessed. Poulos, Rosa, Neer and Dorwart all played on Oct. 24, as did Roggow and Gant for Akron. One name to watch: Ohio wide receiver Eian Pugh was listed with an undisclosed issue against Eastern Michigan and played one snap.
How the line has moved
Ohio opened at -12.5, -470 on the moneyline, with a total of 49.5. It now sits at -13.5 to -14 and -530 to -600, with the total up to 50.5 to 51.5. The market has added about a point and a half to Ohio and two points to the total. Whatever value the Bobcats had at the open has been bet away.
Prediction: No edge
- The price is past the model. The model gives Ohio an 81% win chance. The best Ohio moneyline, -530, needs about 84.1% to break even, so the model sits below the market.
- ESPN's matchup predictor agrees with the market, not the model, at 83.9% for Ohio.
- Fourteen is a lot for this offense. Ohio throws for 177 yards per game and won two MAC games by 3 and 4 points. A run-first favorite that shortens the game doesn't always win by 14+.
- Akron isn't an easy buy either. The Zips are 3-5 against the spread and lost four of their last five by 15 or more.
Swing factor: turnovers. If Akron's -8 margin shows up again, this gets out of hand early. If the Zips keep the ball, the 13.5 to 14 points are live.
Total: at 50.5 to 51.5, the number sits right on top of the season averages. Ohio's games average about 51.5 combined points and Akron's about 51.8. We're passing on the total too.
