Analysis
Indiana vs Minnesota Prediction, Picks & Odds (Week 9, Oct. 31)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: Indiana is -20.5 with moneylines from -1400 to -2300, and our model's lean on Minnesota doesn't hold up against that market.
- Indiana allows 12.0 points per game; Minnesota scores 17.2 against Power Four teams.
- Josh Hoover (18 TD, 1 INT) played through a right arm injury at Michigan and went 8 of 18 for 81 yards.
- The total has dropped from 45.5 to 40.5–41.5 after Indiana scored 20, 15 and 13 in its last three games.
No. 4 Indiana (7-1, 4-1 Big Ten) hosts Minnesota (5-2, 3-1) Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington on CBS, with College GameDay in town. Licensed books hang Indiana -20.5 everywhere, with moneylines from -1400 to -2300 and a total of 40.5 to 41.5. The tension: a suffocating Hoosiers defense against a quarterback playing through a right arm injury. Our call: no edge.
How these teams got here
Indiana's season turned on two low-scoring weeks. The Hoosiers lost 19-15 to Ohio State on Oct. 17, which ended a 22-game winning streak and a 19-game home streak, then won 13-6 in overtime at Michigan, their first win in Ann Arbor since 1967. Before that came a 20-17 escape at Nebraska.
For the season, Indiana scores 33.6 points per game and allows 12.0. The last three weeks tell a different story on offense: 20, 15 and 13 points.
Minnesota has won four of its last five. The Gophers beat Iowa 13-10 last week, and the one miss in that run was a 41-13 loss at Purdue on Oct. 10. They average 26.6 points and allow 20.1, but the scoring thins out against Power Four opponents: 17.2 points per game in five such games, with three games of 13 or fewer (per Covers).
Indiana's defense vs. Drake Lindsey
This is the matchup that sets the number. Indiana allows 12 points per game, second-fewest in the country, and 264.8 yards per game, eighth-fewest (per Covers). Edge rusher Tobi Osunsanmi has 9 sacks, and the Hoosiers are one of four Power Four teams with 7+ interceptions and 27+ sacks.
Minnesota's Drake Lindsey is 141 of 222 for 1,472 yards, 9 TDs and 6 INTs. The Gophers' leading rusher, TJ Thomas, has 325 yards, and Javon Tracy leads in receiving with 420 yards. That is not a profile built to trade punches with a defense this fast.
On the other side, Minnesota can make Indiana work. Covers rates the Gophers' defense top-30 by SP+ and No. 8 in EPA per pass, and TJ Bush Jr. has 4 sacks. Indiana counters with Turbo Richard (711 rushing yards, 6 TDs) and Charlie Becker (726 receiving yards, 8 TDs).
Josh Hoover's right arm is the swing factor
Josh Hoover has been excellent overall: 1,741 yards, 18 TDs and 1 INT on 116 of 187 passing. But he was hurt in the second half against Ohio State and played through a right arm injury at Michigan, where he went 8 of 18 for 81 yards with his first interception of the season. The staff considered turning to Grant Wilson before sticking with Hoover, and he won it with a 4-yard overtime run.
Curt Cignetti said Monday he expects Hoover "to be fine and better this week." We found no official game designation as of Friday afternoon, so he isn't in the injury table. If the arm is still limiting him, 20.5 points is a long way for an offense that has averaged 16.0 points over its last three games.
How the line has moved
Indiana opened -22.5 with a moneyline near -2100, and the spread has settled at -20.5. The bigger move is the total: it opened at 45.5 and now sits at 40.5 to 41.5. The market has already priced in Indiana's recent offense and Minnesota's struggles against good defenses.
Prediction: no edge
No edge on Indiana vs Minnesota.
- The model and the market disagree badly. Our model panel leans Minnesota, while the licensed moneylines imply roughly 93% to 96% for Indiana and ESPN Analytics has the Hoosiers at 95.9%. We don't headline a side on a gap like that.
- Indiana's defense should control the game. 12.0 points allowed per game against an offense averaging 17.2 against Power Four teams.
- The spread is still big. Indiana scored 20, 15 and 13 in its last three, so covering 20.5 asks a lot of a quarterback who was 8 of 18 last week.
- The total already moved. The Hoosiers went Under in five of their last seven (per Covers), but the number has dropped five points from the open, so the value on the Under is mostly gone.
The swing factor is Hoover's arm. A healthy Hoover makes Indiana's offense look like the 33.6-points-a-game version again; a limited one keeps Minnesota inside the number. On the total, 40.5 to 41.5 looks about right for two defenses playing this well.
