Analysis
Central Michigan vs Sacramento State Prediction, Picks & Odds (Wednesday MACtion)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: Central Michigan is a deserved big favorite, but -17.5 to -18.5 and -1000 to -1200 leave no value on either side.
- CMU runs for 176.6 yards a game (41st); Sac State allows 173.9 on the ground (105th).
- Sac State scores 17.0 points a game (133rd) and ran for 8 yards on 31 carries against Toledo.
- QB questions on both sides: CMU's Angel Flores is hurt, and Sac State's Jackson Sharman left the Toledo game at halftime.
Central Michigan (4-5, 2-3 MAC) hosts Sacramento State (2-8, 1-6 MAC) on Wednesday, Nov. 11 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Kelly/Shorts Stadium in Mount Pleasant, live on ESPNU. The Chippewas are laying 17.5 to 18.5 points with the total at 43.5 to 44. The tension: a CMU ground game that lives on the run against a Hornets defense that can't stop it, while both teams sort out their quarterbacks. Our call: no edge.
How these teams got here
Central Michigan's season turned on one night at Ford Field. After three straight losses (31-14 at Ohio, 21-14 to Western Michigan, 28-27 to Miami (OH)), the Chippewas came off their bye and crushed Eastern Michigan 35-7 on Nov. 4. They piled up 26 first downs and held the Eagles to 177 total yards, per the school's game preview. CMU needs two more wins for bowl eligibility, with road trips to Buffalo and Ball State still to come.
The season numbers are modest: 19.8 points per game (123rd in FBS) scored and 23.8 allowed (62nd). The Chippewas are 3-2 at home, with wins over Colgate (13-10), Wyoming (24-10) and Akron (41-17).
Sacramento State is in its first season in the MAC and in FBS, and it shows. The Hornets score 17.0 points a game (133rd) and allow 29.3 (108th). They are 0-4 away from Sacramento, losing by 11 at Eastern Michigan, 46 at Fresno State, 28 at Bowling Green and 17 at Ball State. The last two weeks were better: a 31-10 win over Kent State, then a 20-17 loss to Toledo in which the Hornets held the Rockets to 60 passing yards. Wednesday is their third game in 12 days, and it means a trip across the country.
The decisive matchup: CMU's run game vs. a soft Hornets front
This is a ground-and-pound offense. CMU runs for 176.6 yards a game (41st) and throws for just 129.0 (134th). Sophomore Nick Woodford carried 21 times for 123 yards and three touchdowns against Eastern. Sacramento State gives up 173.9 rushing yards a game (105th), and Toledo ran for 230 on it last week.
The Hornets' pass defense is better: 182.5 yards allowed a game (21st), which only pushes CMU further toward the run.
On the other side, Sacramento State can't run. It averages 97.6 rushing yards a game (134th) and managed 8 yards on 31 carries against Toledo, five sacks included. CMU's pass defense ranks 13th (171.6 yards a game), so a one-dimensional Hornets attack faces a tough night.
The Hornets' hope is turnovers. After just two takeaways in their first five games, they have nine takeaways in the last five (six interceptions, three fumble recoveries), according to the team. Safety Boogsie Silvera has four interceptions and a team-high 78 tackles. CMU hasn't turned it over in either of its last two games and sits at +3 in turnover margin (41st). Sac State is at -5 (114th).
Quarterback questions on both sidelines
CMU's leading rusher, quarterback Angel Flores (618 yards), was injured late in the Western Michigan loss. Jadyn Glasser has started the two games since, going 32-of-40 for 396 yards and two touchdowns. Coach Matt Drinkall called the switch "a monumental shift" because of Glasser's arm. CMU hasn't announced whether Flores is available Wednesday.
Sacramento State may be down to its third quarterback. Opening-day starter Carson Conklin broke a bone in his throwing arm at Eastern Michigan and hasn't returned. Jackson Sharman started the last nine games but left the Toledo game at halftime with an injury, and Brian Salazar Jr. went 12-of-18 for 103 yards in relief. Wide receiver Raiden Brown (108 yards against Toledo) and Matt Coleman (538 yards, six touchdowns) are the targets either way.
CMU's leading receiver, Langston Lewis (379 yards), sat out the Eastern Michigan game with a suspension, according to that week's MAC availability report. Wednesday's report wasn't out when this was written.
How the line has moved
CMU opened at -15.5 and is now -17.5 to -18.5. The moneyline went from -750 to between -1000 and -1200. The total dipped from 44.5 to 43.5–44. The market isn't buying the Hornets' last two weeks.
Prediction: no edge
No edge. The reasons:
- The price is already steep. At -1000 to -1200, CMU has to win about 91 to 92% of the time to break even. ESPN's matchup predictor has the Chippewas at 92.8%, so the moneyline leaves nothing on the table. Our model's read on this game runs sharply against the market, so we set it aside.
- 18 points is a lot for this offense. A team scoring 19.8 a game has won by 24 or more twice (Akron, Eastern), and by 3 and 14 in its other wins.
- Sac State's road record says CMU covers; its recent form says it might not. The Hornets lost every road game by 11 or more, but they held Toledo to 20 points a week ago.
- Both quarterback situations are unsettled.
Swing factor: turnovers. CMU's careful ball security against a Hornets defense that suddenly forces them decides whether this stays within three scores.
On the total: two offenses ranked 123rd and 133rd in scoring, a run-first home team and a possibly wet November night (45 degrees with a 63% chance of precipitation in the AccuWeather forecast on ESPN's game page) all point down. CMU's nine games have averaged 43.6 combined points, right at the number, so we pass on the total too.
