Analysis
Ball State vs Buffalo Prediction, Picks & Odds (Wednesday MACtion, Nov. 11)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model has Buffalo in the mid-50s, short of the break-even at -126 to -140, and Ball State falls just short at +106 to +115.
- Buffalo has allowed 20.2 points per game in five MAC games; Ball State allows 34.8 per game, 132nd in FBS.
- Buffalo's passing game ranks 121st (177.6 yards per game), and Jason Wright completes 49.4% of his throws.
- Buffalo opened -3 and is now -2.5 everywhere; the total sits at 50.5 to 51.5.
Buffalo (6-3, 4-1 MAC) visits Ball State (3-6, 2-3 MAC) on Wednesday, Nov. 11 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Scheumann Stadium in Muncie, live on ESPN2. The Bulls are 2.5-point road favorites, priced from -126 to -140 on the moneyline, with the total sitting between 50.5 and 51.5. Buffalo has won four straight on defense, while Ball State has scored 30 or more in three of its last four. Our call: no edge.
How these teams got here
Buffalo's season turned on Oct. 10. After a 20-17 home loss to Western Michigan, the Bulls went to Toledo and won 23-8, then beat UMass 25-18 in overtime, Bowling Green 31-24 and Miami (OH) 34-31 in overtime on Nov. 3. In five MAC games they have allowed just 20.2 points per game, and only Miami has reached 30 against them in league play.
Ball State's record hides a team that has been in every recent MAC game. The Cardinals won 32-31 in overtime at Bowling Green on Oct. 17, beat Sacramento State 34-17 a week later, then lost 31-30 in overtime at UMass on Nov. 4. The early schedule did the damage: losses at Ohio State (56-3), Liberty (51-15) and Northwestern (45-14) drag the season numbers down.
Both teams come in rested. Buffalo last played on Tuesday, Nov. 3, and Ball State on Wednesday, Nov. 4.
Buffalo's ground game vs Ball State's leaky defense
This is the matchup that decides it. Ball State allows 34.8 points per game (132nd in FBS) and 426.4 yards per game (127th), per the AP's pregame numbers. Opponents run for 179.8 yards a game against the Cardinals (115th) and score on 90.9% of red-zone trips (118th).
That plays straight into Buffalo's strength. Messiah Burch has 901 rushing yards on 165 carries, and the Bulls average 167.7 rushing yards per game (52nd). They need it, because the passing game is the weak link: Buffalo throws for 177.6 yards a game (121st), and Jason Wright is completing 49.4% of his passes (1,345 yards, 9 TD, 6 INT). Wright's last outing showed both sides of him: 358 yards and two touchdowns on 22-of-46 passing against Miami, with two interceptions. Chance Morrow caught 12 of those passes for 199 yards and two scores, and leads the team with 682 yards and eight touchdowns.
On the other side, Keldric Luster is the steadier passer: 63.0% completions, 1,482 yards, 10 TD and 6 INT. Ball State's offense still ranks 112th in total yards (338.9 per game), and it has 16 rushing touchdowns to 11 through the air. T.J. Horton has nine rushing touchdowns, and Jalen Bonds ran for 132 yards and two scores at UMass. Buffalo's run defense allows 154.9 yards per game (85th), so the Cardinals should be able to move it on the ground.
Discipline and availability
Penalties are a quiet edge for Buffalo. Ball State gives away 73.3 penalty yards per game (127th), while the Bulls average 48.3 (42nd). In a game priced under a field goal, a couple of drive-extending flags can swing it.
There's no availability news on either quarterback. Wright and Luster both played their last games, and no dated report lists either one with an injury. The MAC releases an availability report before games, so check it for late changes.
How the line has moved
Buffalo opened as a 3-point favorite and has come down to 2.5 across the board. The moneyline has moved the same way, from -142 at the open to a current range of -126 to -140. The total opened at 51.5 and has bounced between 50.5 and 51.5 at different books. The move is small, but it's toward the home underdog.
Prediction: no edge
The numbers point to Buffalo, but the price already does too.
- The model barely separates them. Our model makes Buffalo a slight favorite in the mid-50s, which is below the roughly 56% break-even even at the best Bulls price of -126. Ball State at +106 to +115 needs about 46.5% to 48.5%, and the model has it just short of that. There is no edge on either side.
- Buffalo's MAC defense is real. 20.2 points allowed in league play against Ball State's 34.8 allowed overall is the biggest gap on the board, and it's why Buffalo is favored.
- Buffalo's passing caps the margin. A 49.4% passer and the 121st-ranked passing attack make it hard to trust the Bulls to pull away; five of their six wins came by seven points or fewer.
- Ball State competes in league play. Its last three MAC games were decided by 1, 17 and 1 points, and two of them went to overtime.
ESPN's matchup predictor is higher on Buffalo, at 65.2%, but our own model doesn't see enough to lay the price.
Swing factor: Morrow against a Ball State pass defense that allows 246.7 yards per game (119th). If Wright connects early, Buffalo can cover; if he misfires, this is a coin flip in Muncie.
On the total: Buffalo's MAC games have averaged 46.2 combined points, while Ball State's have averaged 55.4. With 50.5 to 51.5 sitting between them, we pass.
