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Analysis
Bowling Green vs Kent State Prediction, Picks & Odds (Tuesday MACtion, Nov. 10)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model gives Bowling Green 62%, below the 67.2% break-even at -205, the best Falcons moneyline at licensed books.
- Kent State is 0-5 on the road and has scored 22 points in those five games.
- Bowling Green allows 212.0 rushing yards per game (133rd in FBS) but only 168.8 passing yards (10th).
- Both offenses rank 131st or worse in scoring: Bowling Green 17.8 points per game, Kent State 14.3.
Kent State (3-6, 2-3 MAC) visits Bowling Green (2-7, 2-3 MAC) on Tuesday, Nov. 10 at 7:00 PM ET at Doyt L. Perry Stadium, live on ESPNU. The Falcons are 5.5-point favorites at every licensed book (-205 to -215 on the moneyline), with the total at 43.5 to 44.5. Two of the worst scoring offenses in the FBS meet, and the Golden Flashes have scored 22 points in five road games. SportsHub's call: no edge.
Two offenses stuck in neutral
Bowling Green has dropped three straight: 31-32 at home to Ball State on Oct. 17, 24-31 at Buffalo and 10-23 at Western Michigan on Oct. 31. Its two wins came in back-to-back weeks, 24-20 at Miami (OH) and 38-10 over Sacramento State. The Falcons average 17.8 points per game (131st in FBS) and 286.4 yards (136th), and they are just 1-3 at home, with losses to Tarleton State and South Florida.
Kent State's season breaks down cleanly by venue. The Flashes are 3-1 at home, beating Wofford 36-15, Ball State 26-13 and Akron 35-20. On the road they are 0-5: 0-57 at South Carolina, 3-59 at Ohio State, 7-38 at Western Michigan, 2-29 at South Florida and 10-31 at Sacramento State. That is 4.4 points per road game. Overall they score 14.3 per game (137th) and allow 30.6.
Both teams come in rested. Bowling Green last played Oct. 31 and Kent State Oct. 30, so each has had 10 or more days to prepare.
The common opponents tell a mixed story. Both teams went 1-3 against Ball State, Western Michigan, South Florida and Sacramento State. Kent State beat the Ball State team that edged Bowling Green, but the Falcons routed the Sacramento State team that handled Kent by 21.
Kent State's passing game vs. the Falcons' best unit
Bowling Green's defense is two different units. Against the pass it allows 168.8 yards per game, 10th in FBS. Against the run it gives up 212.0, 133rd. Kent State is poorly built to exploit that: it runs for 99.2 yards per game (132nd), and leading rusher Brandon White has 268 yards on 78 carries.
So the Flashes rely on the arm of Dru DeShields (1,629 yards, 9 TD, 7 INT, 55.8% completions) and on Wayne Harris, who has 42 catches for 662 yards and five touchdowns, per the AP. That attack runs straight into the Falcons' strength, along with edge rusher Myles Bradley and his 9 sacks.
On the other side, Jay Kastantin has completed 66.7% of his passes for 1,567 yards, 11 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Austyn Dendy (371 yards on 104 carries) leads a ground game that averages 110.1 yards (125th). Kent State's defense sits mid-pack: 144.2 rushing yards allowed (73rd) and 216.3 passing (70th).
Turnovers, penalties and the red zone
The hidden numbers favor the home side. Kent State is -7 in turnover margin (127th) and averages 65.4 penalty yards per game (110th). Bowling Green sits 39th at 47.7. Kent converts 36.1% on third down (101st), and Bowling Green's defense allows 34.6% (37th).
Both red-zone offenses struggle. Kent State scores on 59.3% of trips (137th) and Bowling Green on 77.3% (119th).
Kastantin and DeShields both started their teams' most recent games. No conference availability report was found for this game, so no player statuses are listed.
Prediction: no edge
The Falcons are the right side on paper, but the price already says so. No edge.
- The model is below the market. It gives Bowling Green 62% at low confidence. The best Falcons moneyline at licensed books is -205, which needs 67.2% to break even. ESPN's FPI is higher at 72.9%.
- Kent State's road offense is the strongest case for the favorite. The Flashes have scored 22 points total in five road games, although three of those came at South Carolina, Ohio State and South Florida.
- Bowling Green's run defense is the opening for an upset, at 212.0 yards allowed per game. Kent's 99.2 rushing yards per game suggest it can't use it.
- Ball security favors the Falcons. Kent's -7 turnover margin and extra 18 penalty yards a game are the cleaner edge for the home team.
The swing factor: Bowling Green has lost three in a row and is 1-3 at Doyt L. Perry Stadium, so laying 5.5 with a 17.8-point offense isn't comfortable either.
On the total: it opened at 44.5 and sits at 43.5 to 44.5. Offenses ranked 131st and 137th in scoring argue for a low number, but these defenses allow 29.0 and 30.6 points per game. We don't see a total worth betting.
