Analysis
Akron vs Western Michigan Prediction, Picks & Odds (Tuesday MACtion, Nov. 10)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model has Western Michigan around 83%, below the 86.2% break-even of the best -625 moneyline.
- Western Michigan allows 19.2 points per game (23rd in FBS); Akron allows 32.2 (121st).
- The Broncos haven't won a road game by more than seven points; six of Akron's eight losses came by 15 or more.
- Turnover margin: Western Michigan +4 (28th), Akron -9 (136th).
Western Michigan (6-3, 4-1 MAC) visits Akron (1-8, 0-5 MAC) on Tuesday, Nov. 10 at 7:00 PM ET at InfoCision Stadium, live on CBS Sports Network. The Broncos are laying 14 to 14.5 points, with the total at 47.5 to 48.5. The tension: Akron has lost seven straight, but Western Michigan's offense ranks 130th in passing and hasn't won a road game by more than seven points all season. Our call: no edge.
How these teams got here
Western Michigan is a defense-first team that grinds games out. The Broncos allow 19.2 points per game (23rd in FBS) and have won four of their last five, with the only loss a 45-38 shootout at Toledo on Oct. 24. They bounced back with a 23-10 home win over Bowling Green on Oct. 31 and have had 10 days off since.
The catch for a two-touchdown number is the margins. Western Michigan's road results read: a 13-12 loss at Michigan, a 28-21 win at Rice, a 20-17 win at Buffalo, a 21-14 win at Central Michigan and the loss at Toledo. No road win by more than seven. Its two blowouts (49-14 over Monmouth, 38-7 over Kent State) both came at home.
Akron's lone win was 45-10 over Robert Morris on Sept. 12. Since then the Zips have dropped seven in a row, scoring 19.1 points per game (129th) and allowing 32.2 (121st). Six of their eight losses came by 15 or more. The most recent one was closer: a 28-20 home loss to Ohio on Nov. 3, so Akron is on seven days of rest.
Western Michigan's run game vs. Akron's front
This is where the game should tilt. Western Michigan runs for 165.2 yards per game (56th) and relies on Jalen Buckley, who has 711 yards and eight touchdowns on 144 carries. Cole Cabana gave the Broncos a different gear against Bowling Green with 110 yards on just seven carries. Akron gives up 182.9 rushing yards per game (117th), so the Broncos shouldn't need to throw much.
That matters because the passing game is thin. Broc Lowry has 1,397 yards, 11 touchdowns and three interceptions at a 62.4% completion rate, but he went 9-of-18 against Bowling Green and 12-of-29 at Toledo. Aveion Chenault (33 catches, 540 yards) is the one reliable target.
On the other side, Akron's best weapon is running back Jordan Gant, who has topped 700 rushing yards with seven touchdowns and ran for 112 against Ohio. Western Michigan's defense allows 149.2 rushing yards per game (76th), so Gant can keep the Zips on schedule. Austin Alexander (five sacks) leads the Broncos' pass rush.
The bigger gap is ball security. Akron sits at -9 in turnover margin (136th), while Western Michigan is +4 (28th). The Broncos also commit far fewer penalty yards (43.0 per game, 20th, against Akron's 65.3, 109th).
Akron's quarterback question
Akron changed quarterbacks for the Ohio game. Brayden Roggow, the season passing leader at 1,343 yards with seven touchdowns and nine interceptions, had thrown four interceptions at Miami (OH) on Oct. 17. Cibastian Broughton started against Ohio, per On3's Brett McMurphy, and went 22-of-34 for 232 yards with no touchdowns and an interception, plus 20 carries for 20 yards.
Neither has been named the starter for Tuesday in the sources we checked, and the MAC availability report comes out on game day. Receiver Cameron Monteiro and tight end Elijah Alexander were both ruled out of the Ohio game with undisclosed injuries; their status for this one isn't known yet. On a Zips offense this short on big plays, whoever takes the snaps has to avoid giving Western Michigan short fields.
How the line has moved
The spread has moved between Western Michigan -13.5 and -14.5 since it posted and now sits at 14 to 14.5. The moneyline runs from -625 to -690 on the Broncos and +450 to +500 on the Zips. The total has bounced between 46.5 and 48.5. Nothing there points to strong one-way pressure.
Prediction: No edge
No edge on Western Michigan-Akron. The reasons:
- The price is already there. Our model makes Western Michigan about an 83% winner. The best available moneyline, -625, needs 86.2% to break even, so the model sits below the market.
- The spread cuts both ways. Six of Akron's eight losses came by 15 or more, but Western Michigan's road wins came by seven, three and seven points, and a 130th-ranked passing game makes a big margin hard to build.
- The defensive and turnover gaps are real, and priced. Western Michigan allows 13 fewer points per game (19.2 vs. 32.2) and is +4 in turnover margin to Akron's -9. Those are the clearest edges in the matchup, and a two-touchdown line already reflects them.
- Akron's quarterback is unsettled, which makes the Zips' side harder to trust even with two touchdowns.
The swing factor is Akron's turnovers: a clean game from the Zips' quarterback keeps this inside the number, while two or three giveaways turn it into another lopsided loss.
On the total: all nine Akron games have landed on 48 points or more, but six of Western Michigan's nine have stayed under 48.5. Those trends point opposite ways, so there's no play on the total either.
