Analysis
Temple vs Charleston Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov. 11, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model can't separate Temple and Charleston, and the market already moved three points to the Cougars (now -1.5).
- Charleston is 2-0 at 111.5 points per game, but both wins came at home against non-Division I opponents.
- Temple shot 16-of-54 and 7-of-32 from three in a 79-53 home loss to Richmond on Nov. 8.
- The total climbed from 153.5 at the open to 157–157.5.
Charleston (2-0) visits Temple (1-1) at the Liacouras Center on Wednesday, Nov. 11 at 6:30 PM ET on ESPN+, and the market has already flipped this one. Temple opened as a 1.5-point favorite; Charleston is now -1.5 across the board with a 157–157.5 total. The Cougars are scoring 111.5 a night, but only against non-Division I teams, while Temple just shot 29.6% in a 26-point home loss. Our call: no edge.
How these teams got here
Temple has had a bumpy first week. The Owls handled Central Connecticut 68-56 on Nov. 2, then got run off their own floor by Richmond, 79-53, on Nov. 8. That loss was ugly: 16-of-54 shooting, 7-of-32 from three and 16 turnovers, while Richmond shot 51% with 22 assists and 14 steals. Two games in, Temple averages 60.5 points on 38.1% shooting and 24.2% from deep (15-of-62).
Last season's Owls went 16-16 but 10-6 at home, averaging 73.9 points on 44.7% shooting, per the AP preview. That is the version Temple needs to find tonight.
Charleston has done exactly what it was supposed to do. It beat Southern Wesleyan 111-55 and Newberry 112-66, both at home, and ESPN lists both opponents as non-Division I programs. The Cougars shot 57.5%, pulled down 47 rebounds a game and forced 21 turnovers a night. Tonight is their first road game and their first Division I opponent. Last season Charleston went 21-11, including 8-4 on the road, and averaged 75.4 points.
Charleston's backcourt vs. Temple's cold shooting
Eli Ellis has been Charleston's most efficient scorer: 15.5 points a game on 13-of-18 shooting and 5-of-8 from three. Ben Bradford adds 13.0 a game, and Tavari Johnson dropped 20 on Newberry with five threes. Braden Pierce grabbed six rebounds in each game and added five assists against Newberry. The Cougars had 16 steals in that game, so a Temple team that coughed it up 16 times against Richmond has to value the ball.
Temple's scoring is spread thin. Jordan Marsh scored 16 against Central Connecticut, then went 1-of-7 (0-of-6 from three) against Richmond. Cam Scott was the bright spot in the loss with 13 points on 5-of-6 shooting. Derrian Ford added 11 off the bench, and Baboucarr Njie grabbed 12 rebounds in the opener. Gavin Griffiths is 3-of-12 from three so far. Temple has taken 62 threes in two games; if they keep falling at under 25%, Charleston's pace will bury them.
The schedule caveat
College basketball has no official injury report, and we found no dated status for a rotation player on either side, so the injury table is empty.
The bigger unknown is quality of opposition. Charleston's 111.5 points and 60.5 allowed came against teams outside Division I, while Temple's numbers include a Richmond team that dominated it. Neither sample says much about how these two match up, which is why the number sits right around a pick'em.
How the line has moved
Temple opened at -1.5 with a -115 moneyline, and the total opened at 153.5. The market now has Charleston -1.5, Charleston -125 to -126 on the moneyline and Temple at +105, with the total up to 157–157.5. That's a three-point swing on the side and four points on the total, all toward Charleston and more scoring.
Prediction: No edge
No edge. Here's why:
- The model has no separation. Our model can't pick a side at any meaningful confidence, so it can't beat a market that prices Charleston around 53% after removing the vig. ESPN's BPI also has this as a coin flip, with Temple at 50.8%.
- The move already happened. Charleston went from +1.5 to -1.5. Whatever value the Cougars had at the open is gone at -125.
- Charleston's numbers are inflated. 111.5 points a game against non-Division I teams doesn't carry over to a road game in Philadelphia.
- Temple's are probably too low. A 24.2% three-point mark across 62 attempts is a small sample, and last year's group made 33.8%.
Swing factor: Temple's three-point shooting. If the Owls get back near last season's level at home, +1.5 and +105 look fine. If not, Charleston's turnover pressure turns this into a runaway.
On the total: 157–157.5 is up from 153.5, and Temple's two games finished at 124 and 132 total points. Charleston's pace argues for more, Temple's shooting argues for less, and we have no play.
