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Analysis
Delaware vs James Madison Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov 11, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model makes James Madison about a 61% favorite at low confidence, below the 63.6% that a -175 price requires.
- Chuck Bailey III is averaging 24.0 points for Delaware and has hit 8 of 11 threes in two games.
- James Madison is 0-2 and has allowed 87.5 points per game (86 to Miami (OH), 89 at Kentucky).
- The total has climbed from 147.5 to 149.5-150.5; JMU has launched 79 threes in two games.
James Madison (0-2) visits Delaware (1-1) on Wednesday, Nov. 11, at 7:00 PM ET at the Bob Carpenter Center in Newark, streaming on ESPN+. The Dukes are 3.5- to 4.5-point road favorites with the total at 149.5 to 150.5, yet they have allowed 87.5 points per game while Chuck Bailey III has drilled 8 of 11 threes for the Blue Hens. Our call: no edge, because the model's James Madison number doesn't clear the price.
How these teams got here
Delaware opened with a 105-44 rout of Notre Dame (MD) on Nov. 2, shooting 59% from the floor with 28 assists. Friday's trip to Wisconsin was a different test: the Blue Hens hit 12 of 25 threes but went just 9 of 34 inside the arc in a 73-64 loss, and Wisconsin won the glass 42-32.
James Madison is 0-2 despite scoring 77 and 80. Miami (OH) beat the Dukes 86-77 at home on Nov. 2, going 16 of 17 at the line, and Kentucky shot 51% from the floor in an 89-80 win on Friday. That's 87.5 points allowed per game, and it's the number JMU has to fix.
Both teams last played Friday night, so there's no rest edge. Last season's baseline favors the visitors: JMU went 18-15 (5-10 on the road) and outscored opponents 74.5 to 73.8 per game, while Delaware finished 10-21 with a 5-10 home record and a 67.7 to 74.0 scoring margin.
Bailey's jumper vs JMU's three-point volume
Bailey is the story in Newark. He scored 22 on 9-of-11 shooting in the opener and 26 at Wisconsin, including 5 of 7 from deep, for 24.0 points per game. As a team, Delaware is 25 of 53 (47%) from three. DeShawn Harris-Smith runs the offense, with 11 assists in the opener and 8 rebounds plus 6 assists at Wisconsin, but he shot 2 of 10 against the Badgers and the Blue Hens need more from him against a real opponent.
James Madison lives behind the line: 79 three-point attempts in two games, 29 makes (37%), including 15 of 45 at Kentucky. Brandon Lee led the way with 26 against the Wildcats, Paul Jones III has 26 points off the bench across two games on 7-of-15 threes, and Garrett Sundra hit 4 of 6 from deep at Kentucky.
The swing stat is the offensive glass. JMU grabbed 16 offensive rebounds against Miami and 14 at Kentucky, and Delaware gave up 12 to Wisconsin. If the Dukes keep getting second shots, the volume of threes becomes a problem for a Delaware team that has been efficient but not physical.
Availability and lineup notes
College basketball has no official injury report, and we found no dated status news for either team ahead of tip-off, so the injury table stays empty. Bailey and Harris-Smith started both of Delaware's games, and JMU's top scorers (Lee, Sundra, K.J. Windham and Adrian Myers) have started both of the Dukes' games, with Jones the top scorer off the bench. Check lineups at tip; a late scratch for Bailey would change this game more than anything else.
How the line has moved
James Madison opened -3.5 and -166 on the moneyline. It's now -3.5 to -4.5, with the moneyline at -175 to -178 and Delaware at +145 to +148. The total opened at 147.5 and has climbed to 149.5 to 150.5, a sign the market expects JMU's porous defense to keep giving up points.
Prediction: no edge
No edge on a side. Here's why:
- The price is too high for the model. The SportsHub model makes James Madison roughly a 61% favorite, at low confidence. At -175, the Dukes need to win 63.6% of the time just to break even.
- The models disagree. ESPN's BPI gives Delaware a 57.1% chance at home. When two systems pick different winners, the right play is to pass.
- The factors cut both ways. JMU's 87.5 points allowed and Bailey's 8-of-11 shooting favor the Blue Hens with the points, while JMU's 30 offensive rebounds in two games and last season's 18-15 vs 10-21 gap favor the Dukes.
- Delaware's numbers are inflated. The 105-point night came against Notre Dame (MD); against Wisconsin, the Blue Hens scored 64.
The swing factor is three-point variance: James Madison takes 39.5 threes per game, and a hot night from Lee and Jones can cover the number by halftime. On the total, 149.5 to 150.5 sits above what either team scored per game last season, but JMU has allowed 86 and 89 so far. That's no play either way.
