UFC Vegas 79 Predictions, Odds and Preview

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Are you looking for winning UFC Vegas 79 predictions? We’ve analyzed all of the fights to uncover the best value based on the betting lines and MMA stats. There are some live underdogs this weekend.

The main event will feature Rafael Fiziev (#6 LW) and Mateusz Gamrot (#7 LW).


UFC Vegas 79 Preview

When: Saturday, September 23rd 2023

Where: UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada

Time: 4:00 PM ET (Prelims) / 7:00 PM ET (Main Card)

Watch: ESPN and ESPN+


There are six ranked fighters featured on the UFC Vegas 79 main card. Excluding the main event, the other four ranked fighters are Bryce Mitchell (#10 FW), Dan Ige (#12 FW), Marina Rodriguez (#8 WSW) and Michelle Waterson-Gomez (#12 WSW). There are some excellent MMA fights for a free fight card.

The UFC Vegas 79 weigh-ins are complete and everyone ended up making weight. There are 11 fights scheduled for this MMA fight card and all of them will be available to watch on ESPN or ESPN+.

Expert UFC Vegas 79 Predictions

You’ll need a Sports Hub account to access all of our UFC Vegas 79 predictions.I (SWJ Sports) ended up going 5-2 (+$305) at Noche UFC last weekend. I’ve made over $500 in profits the last two weeks.

I’ll look to keep adding to the win column with my UFC Vegas 79 predictions.

Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Fiziev (-160) vs. Gamrot (+130)

Fiziev (12-2) is coming off a majority decision loss to Justin Gaethje. That snapped a six-fight win streak, which included three KO wins. Gamrot (22-2-0-1) is coming off a split decision win against Jalin Turner.

UFC Vegas 79 Predictions - Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot
UFC Vegas 79 Predictions – Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot

We have two contrasting styles in this MMA fight. Fiziev engages in slugfests. He averages 5.06 SLpM (5.17 SApM) and has eight TKO/KO wins. Gamrot will look to utilize his wrestling to win. He averages 4.54 takedowns per 15 minutes (31% accuracy), but Fiziev has 90% takedown defense.

Gamrot will land takedowns, but will he be able to maintain control? Fiziev will make that tough. This is a five-round fight and Gamrot will likely have the edge as the fight progresses due to his gas tank.

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Bryce Mitchell vs. Dan Ige Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Mitchell (-205) vs. Ige (+165)

Mitchell (15-1) lost his first fight last time out against Ilia Topuria by submission. Ige (17-6) has strung two wins together, defeating Damon Jackson and Nate Landwehr, but he’s 3-4 in his last seven UFC fights.

Ige is a counter puncher with some power (5 TKO/KO wins). He averages 3.96 SLpM and 3.69 SApM, while Mitchell averages 2.48 SLpM and 1.71 SApM. Mitchell has the edge in takedowns per 15 minutes (3.26 vs. 1.15). Mitchell lands 44% of his takedown attempts and Ige only has 56% takedown defense.

Mitchell has looked rough when he’s not landing takedowns. He needs to be cautious of big shots from Ige while shooting for takedowns. This fight could go either way. Will Mitchell improve after his loss?

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Marina Rodriguez vs. Michelle Waterson-Gomez Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Rodriguez (-315) vs. Waterson-Gomez (+250)

Rodriguez (16-3-2) is on a two-fight skid, with losses against Amanda Lemos and Virna Jandiroba, but she’s fighting Waterson-Gomez who has lost three consecutive fights and five of her last six.

Waterson-Gomez is 37 years old and Rodriguez is 36 years old. Both fighters are nearing the end of their careers. These two fought back in 2021 and Rodriguez won a five-round decision. Rodriguez has gone the distance in four of her last five, while Waterson-Gomez has gone the distance in nine of her last ten.

The odds of this fight going the distance are -320, which offers no value. I’m backing the favorite.

Best Bet: Marina Rodriguez to Win by Decision (-140)

Bryan Battle vs. AJ Fletcher Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Battle (-180) vs. Fletcher (+150)

Battle (9-2) is 4-1 in the UFC with his lone loss against Rinat Fakhretdinov. Fletcher (10-2) is 1-2 in the UFC, but he’s coming off a submission win against Themba Gorimbo. Battle will have a huge 10” reach advantage (77” vs. 67”), which will allow him to remain patient and maintain distance.

Fletcher averages 1.92 takedowns per 15 minutes and Battle only has 38% takedown defense, but he’ll struggle to keep Battle on the mat. Battle averages 4.47 SLpM and 4.00 SApM. He has started to strike with more power also, as he has won two of his last three fights by knockout.

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Ricardo Ramos vs. Charles Jourdain Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Ramos (+120) vs. Jourdain (-150)

Ramos (16-4) is 2-2 in his last four fights and he hasn’t fought that tough of competition. Jourdain (14-6-1) suffered decision losses to Shane Burgos and Nathaniel Wood last year, but he bounced back earlier this year with a decision win against Kron Gracie. Ramos will look to take this fight to the mat.

Ramos averages 2.58 takedowns per 15 minutes and Jourdain has 48% takedown defense. Jourdain will have the edge on the feet. He averages 5.78 SLpM and 4.30 SApM. He has power (eight TKO/KO wins) and his approach has become more calculated. Will the Canadian find a way to win?

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Tim Means vs. Andre Fialho Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Means (+130) vs. Fialho (-160)

Means (32-15-1-1) has lost three consecutive fights and has been tapped out twice. Fialho (16-7-0-1) is on a three-fight losing streak as well and he has been knocked out in all three losses.

Means hasn’t won a fight by TKO/KO since 2018, but he has 19 TKO/KO wins. Fialho has been knocked out five times in his career. Means averages 4.93 SLpM and 3.61 SApM. Fialho averages 3.02 SLpM and 5.59 SApM. He eats a lot of shots. Means has also landed 2+ takedowns in each of his last three fights.

Fialho only has one submission win and Means hasn’t been knocked out since 2019. Means is a live dog and could win by points or TKO/KO. I’m backing the veteran underdog to get the job done.

Best Bet: Tim Means ML (+130)

UFC Vegas 79 Predictions – Best Parlay Bet

My best parlay bet is on Battle and Jourdain to win on the main card. The parlay has +159 odds. If you’re seeking a bigger payout, I recommend including Rodriguez ML and Malkoun ML, which would bump the odds to +293. Malkoun is the biggest favorite on the card and should cruise to a win.

Best Parlay Bet: Battle ML + Jourdain ML (+159 Odds)

UFC Vegas 79 Odds

Here are the latest UFC Vegas 79 odds for every fight:

  • Rafael Fiziev (-160) vs. Mateusz Gamrot (+130)
  • Bryce Mitchell (-205) vs. Dan Ige (+165)
  • M Rodriguez (-315) vs. Waterson-Gomez (+250)
  • Brya Battle (-180) vs. AJ Fletcher (+150)
  • Ramos (+120) vs. Jourdain (-150)
  • Dan Argueta (-175) vs. Miles Johns (+145)
  • Tim Means (+130) vs. Andre Fialho (-160)
  • Jacob Malkoun (-660) vs. Cody Brundage (+420)
  • Mohammed Usman (-145) vs. Jake Collier (+115)
  • Mizuki Inoue (-340) vs. Hannah Goldy (+265)
  • Vidal (-265) vs. Rendon (+205)

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