Noche UFC Predictions, Odds and Preview

You’ve come to the right place for Noche UFC predictions for this weekend. Mexico’s Independence Day is on Saturday and this is the first time the UFC will host an event to celebrate the Mexican holiday.

“Noche” means “Night” in Latin, and “Noche UFC” translates to “UFC Night”. Noche UFC will be hosted at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas and there will be six Mexican fighters featured on the card.

Noche UFC Preview

When: Saturday, September 16th 2023

Where: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, United States

Time: 7:00 PM ET (Prelims) / 10:00 PM ET (Main Card)

Watch: ESPN+

In a rare move, the UFC will feature a title fight on a non-PPV card. Alexa Grasso just defeated Valentina Shevchenko back in March to win the women’s flyweight title. The rematch is on Saturday.

Kevin Holland (#13 WW) will fight Jack Della Maddalena (#14 WW) in the co-main event.

Expert Noche UFC Predictions

Sign-up for a free Sports Hub account to access our expert Noche UFC predictions. We have numerous MMA experts releasing plays for every event. I (SWJ Sports) went 6-3 (+$201) on my UFC 293 picks last week. The main event cost me two of the losses. I also had Manel Kape ITD, but he won by decision.

Let’s jump into my Noche UFC predictions for Saturday’s MMA fight card:

Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko Prediction

• Fight Odds: Grasso (+145) vs. Shevchenko (-175)

Grasso (16-3) submitted (round 4) Shevchenko (23-4) in their previous fight. It was only Grasso’s second career submission. She’s not normally a finisher, as she has won ten fights by decision. Prior to the loss, Shevchenko had won nine consecutive fights, with five of those wins coming by stoppage.

Shevchenko averages 3.29 SLpM and 1.99 SApM. She has great striking defense. Grasso averages 4.88 SLpM and 4.07 SApM. She lost the striking battle (87 vs. 59) in the first head-to-head fight.

I like Shevchenko to win the belt back, but her odds aren’t too enticing. She has looked to be on a slide, as her last win against Taila Santos wasn’t great (split decision). Grasso has gone the distance in ten or her last 13 fights, including a five-round decision win against Viviane Araujo.

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Kevin Holland vs. Jack Della Maddalena Prediction

• Fight Odds: Holland (+120) vs. Della Maddalena (-150)

Holland (25-9-0-1) has won his last two fights by stoppage. He defeated Santiago Ponzinibbio (R3 KO) and Michael Chiesa (R1 Submission). Della Maddalena (15-2) is 5-0 since joining the UFC last year.

Neither fighter has much of a ground game. Della Maddalena has the edge in SLpM (7.27 vs. 4.11), but Holland eats less shots (2.96 vs. 3.50). The Aussie will have to deal with Holland’s reach advantage (81” vs. 73”). Holland is also durable and has only been stopped four times in his career.

Della Maddalena is coming off his worst performance, as he defeated Bassil Hafez by split decision. Will he be able to defeat the veteran Holland? Sign-up to Sports Hub to get my Noche UFC predictions.

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Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Terrence Mitchell Prediction

• Fight Odds: Rosas Jr. (-900) vs. Mitchell (+550)

Rosas Jr. (7-1) suffered his first loss in his last fight against Christian Rodriguez by decision. Rosas Jr. won his UFC debut against Jay Perrin (R1 Submission). Mitchell (14-3) lost his UFC debut (R1 TKO) against Cameron Saaiman. Mitchell has won all 14 of his fights by stoppage.

There’s no doubt this is a mismatch, but Rosas Jr. hasn’t impressed me. Rosas Jr. averages 0.76 SLpM, 1.37 SApM and 3.67 takedowns per 15 minutes (33% TD accuracy). Mitchell averages 0.95 SLpM, 5.68 SApM and 4.74 takedowns per 15 minutes (50% TD accuracy). Rosas Jr. has five wins by submission.

Neither fighter has been tapped before and I’m not sold on Rosas Jr. winning this fight quickly.

Best Bet Over 1.5 Rounds (+205)

Daniel Zellhuber vs. Christos Giagos Prediction

• Fight Odds: Zellhuber (-285) vs. Giagos (+220)

Zellhuber (13-1) is 1-1 in the UFC with both fights going the full three rounds. He defeated Lando Vannata earlier in the year. He’s only 24 years old. Giagos (20-10) is 5-4 in the UFC since 2018. His last four fights have ended by stoppage, but he has lost two of his last three fights in the UFC.

Giagos averages 3.16 takedowns per 15 minutes (41% TD accuracy). Zellhuber has 91% TD defense. He also has a huge edge in the striking department. Zellhuber averages 5.44 SLpM and 4.84 SApM. He eats a lot of shots considering his size and length. He’ll have a 6” reach advantage (77” vs. 71”).

Will the promising prospect defeat the unimpressive veteran? Login to access my Noche UFC predictions.

Best Bet: SIGN IN TO ACCESS PICK 

Fernando Padilla vs. Kyle Nelson Prediction

• Fight Odds: Padilla (-250) vs. Nelson (+200)

Padilla (15-4) defeated Julian Erosa (R1 TKO) in his UFC debut. Kyle Nelson (14-5-1) joined the UFC in 2018 and he has gone 2-4-1 since. He’s coming off a decision win against Blake Bilder. Padilla will have a 5” reach advantage (76” vs. 71”). His accurate striking (68%) will pose a problem for the Canadian.

This feels like a fight Padilla should finish quickly with his striking, but Nelson is always a live underdog.

Best Bet: Padilla Inside the Distance (-110)

Roman Kopylov vs. Josh Fremd Prediction

• Fight Odds: Kopylov (-320) vs. Fremd (+250)

Kopylov (11-2) has won his last three fights by TKO/KO. Fremd (11-4) has won two consecutive fights and he’s 2-2 in the UFC. Fremd will look to utilize his wrestling to win this fight, but he only averages 1.03 TDs per 15 minutes and the Russian has 90% TD defense. He’ll struggle with Kopylov’s power.

Fremd is taking this fight on short notice, which won’t help him either. Kopylov averages 4.66 SLpM and 4.15 SApM, while Fremd averages 2.72 SLpM and 2.10 SApM. Kopylov should win, but by what method?

Sign-up to Sports Hub to get my Noche UFC predictions and see how I’m betting this fight.

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Edgar Chairez vs. Daniel Lacerda Prediction

• Fight Odds: Chairez (-230) vs. Lacerda (+180)

Chairez (10-5) lost his UFC debut against Tatsuro Taira by decision. Lacerda (11-5) is 0-4 in the UFC and he hasn’t made it out of the second round yet. Both of these fighters struggle with cardio.

Lacerda will push the pace early. He averages 4.75 SLpM, but he takes a lot of damage (9.76 SApM). He may look to try and take the fight to the mat as well, but Chairez has six submission wins. There’s always a bit of a gamble when dealing with fighters with poor cardio, but there’s still value to be had.

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Noche UFC Predictions – Best Parlay Bet

I’m parlaying three moneyline favorites as part of my Noche UFC predictions.

I’ll be backing Zellhuber, Padilla and Kopylov to all win straight up. We’re getting plus money on the parlay bet. There are several other big favorites on the card, but I trust these three to get the job done.

Best Parlay Bet: Zellhuber ML + Padilla ML + Kopylov ML (+148 Odds)

Noche UFC Odds

Here are the betting lines for all of the Noche UFC fights:

Alexa Grasso (+145) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (+145)

Kevin Holland (+120) vs. Jack Della Maddalena (-150)

Raul Rosas Jr. (-900) vs. Terrence Mitchell (+550)

Daniel Zellhuber (-285) vs. Christos Giagos (+220)

Frenando Padilla (-250) vs. Kyle Nelson (+200)

Loopy Godinez (-405) vs. Elise Reed (+290)

Roman Kopylov (-320) vs. Josh Fremd (+250)

Edgar Chairez (-230) vs. Daniel Lacerda (+180)

Tracy Cortez (-130) vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius (+100)

Alex Reyes (+390) vs. Charlie Campbell (-575)

Josefine Knutsson (-855) vs. Marnic Mann (+505)

How to Access Noche UFC Predictions at Sports Hub

Sports Hub members gain access to all of our Noche UFC predictions. Opening an account is currently free, so I recommend signing up and cashing with us on this MMA fight card on Saturday.